{"id":151105,"date":"2022-08-03T12:28:08","date_gmt":"2022-08-03T16:28:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=151105"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:50","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:50","slug":"market-mushrooms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/market-mushrooms\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Mushrooms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>If you have a lawn or garden, you\u2019ve probably noticed this phenomenon: when a rainy period follows a dry spell, all sorts of mushrooms appear, seemingly out of nowhere.&nbsp; I assume they arise from pre-existing spores that are hard to see and laying dormant until the proper conditions arise.&nbsp; Some of them get shockingly large almost overnight, and they often disappear just as quickly.&nbsp; They\u2019re fascinating organisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now let\u2019s engage in a bit of market <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Mycology\">mycology<\/a><a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>, so to speak.&nbsp; We had a dry spell in the market that suppressed speculation for several months.&nbsp; Then, about three weeks ago, fertile conditions returned.&nbsp; And yesterday, one of the world&#8217;s largest companies by market cap, appeared out of nowhere.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Raise your hand if you\u2019d heard of AMTD Digital (HKD)<a href=\"#_edn2\" id=\"_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a> before yesterday.&nbsp; C\u2019mon, be honest. &nbsp;We\u2019re not talking about TD Ameritrade, which had the symbol AMTD before it was acquired. &nbsp;These are Hong Kong ADRs for a company <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amtdigital.net\/\">whose website describes them<\/a> as \u201cAsia\u2019s One-Stop Comprehensive Digital Solutions Platform.\u201d&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net\/CIK-0001809691\/89df4242-a74e-41fc-b948-a5f0a2956d83.pdf\">Their prospectus shows<\/a> 2021 revenues of $25.2 million USD and profits of $22.1 million USD.&nbsp; That\u2019s an enviable profit margin indeed, but a relative pittance compared to the company\u2019s current market capitalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>HKD came public on July 15<sup>th<\/sup> at $7.80.&nbsp; They opened for trading at a solid $13 that day, and spent most of the first four days of the following week in the $20\u2019s, which was a nice gain.&nbsp; Then on Friday the 22<sup>nd<\/sup>, they leapt from $20.32 to $68.&nbsp; It\u2019s not clear why, but that was only a taste of what would follow.&nbsp; By the end of the next week, July 29<sup>th<\/sup>, it closed at $400.25.&nbsp; Yet even that jump was a fraction of what would transpire this week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hkd-us-equity-2-week-chart-5-minute-bars\"><strong><em>HKD (US Equity), 2-Week Chart, 5-Minute Bars<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"378\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1.png\" alt=\"HKD (US Equity), 2-Week Chart, 5-Minute Bars\" class=\"wp-image-151106 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/08\/Picture1-300x182.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/378;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, HKD opened at $930, rose as high as $2,555.30 after touching $668.01, and closed at $1679.&nbsp; Let those numbers sink in for a moment.&nbsp; So far today, it\u2019s been less volatile, but only marginally so.&nbsp; We opened higher at $1900, touched a low of $990 and a high of $2117.80, and are now trading \u2013 briefly, between successive limit up \/ limit down halts \u2013 at $1,398.50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That gives us a market cap of about $258 billion USD.&nbsp; For perspective, that is about the same as Bank of America (BAC), which earned over $30 billion last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If that\u2019s not crazy enough, HKD is a subsidiary of AMTD IDEA Group (AMTD).&nbsp; That company has a market cap of $2.6 billion.&nbsp; Yes, the subsidiary sports 100X the market cap of the parent.&nbsp; Of course that\u2019s irrational.&nbsp; Good luck trying to arbitrage the differential.&nbsp; Under normal circumstances, we would want to sell HKD short against buying AMTD.&nbsp; But good luck trying to borrow HKD shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve been asked if HKD was a meme stock.&nbsp; On the surface, it acts like one.&nbsp;&nbsp; Undoubtedly many of those trading the shares were involved in the various meme crazes, too.&nbsp; But this hasn\u2019t caught the public\u2019s imagination like the meme stocks did.&nbsp; We all know what those companies do, and there was some nostalgia amidst the love.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No, the small float (16 million shares) and lack of listed options make it difficult to consider HKD a true meme stock.&nbsp; Like one of those huge mushrooms that periodically appear on my lawn and garden beds, this is a difficult to identify, fascinating \u2013 and potentially short-lived \u2013 organism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> Mycology is the branch of biology concerned with the study of fungi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" id=\"_edn2\">[ii]<\/a> Not to be confused with the common symbol for the Hong Kong Dollar, which is commonly referred to as HKD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cWhen a rainy period follows a dry spell, all sorts of mushrooms appear, seemingly out of nowhere.  And yesterday, one of the world&#8217;s largest companies by market cap appeared overnight.\u201d  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":47191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[12420,4105,44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-151105","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-amtd-digital","16":"tag-hkd","17":"tag-stocks","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market Mushrooms | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When a rainy period follows a dry spell, all sorts of mushrooms appear, seemingly out of nowhere. 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