{"id":150613,"date":"2022-07-29T12:33:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-29T16:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=150613"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:51","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:51","slug":"qed-all-news-is-apparently-good-news-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/qed-all-news-is-apparently-good-news-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"QED: All News is Apparently Good News for Now"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday morning we saw second quarter GDP come in at -0.9%, much lower than the consensus 0.4% estimate.&nbsp; Stocks rallied.&nbsp; Bad news was good news, because it bolstered the current thinking that we are nearing the end of the Fed\u2019s rate hiking cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today we initially ticked off our highs \u2013 not lower, mind you \u2013 when the PCE Core Deflator (the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure) rose by 0.6%, more than the 0.5% expectation.&nbsp; Stocks recovered, and then took another leg higher after slightly better than expected Michigan Sentiment numbers.&nbsp; Good news was good news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If good news is good news and bad news is good news, then all news must be good news.&nbsp; QED.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That of course is overly simplistic.&nbsp; Let\u2019s break it down in more depth, taking care of the more intuitive part first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course good news is good news.&nbsp; While the stock market is not the economy, and vice versa, a stronger economy tends to boost the bottom lines of the companies that make up the stock market.&nbsp; If sentiment is good \u2013 or in this case not as awful, since we\u2019re near all-time lows for these readings &#8211; then consumers are comfortable spending money at their favorite businesses.&nbsp; The consumer sector is about 2\/3 of the economy, so a healthy, confident (or not-unconfident) consumer is crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201cbad news is good news\u201d idea requires a bit of psychological jiu-jitsu.&nbsp; It only makes sense if we recognize that equity investors are liquidity addicted, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/yay-we-might-be-in-a-recession\/\">a topic we discussed in detail yesterday<\/a>. &nbsp;&nbsp;Put simply, risk assets like stocks tend to rise during periods of monetary accommodation.&nbsp; With only brief exceptions, we have seen almost uninterrupted periods of both rising stock prices and monetary quiescence, if not outright stimulus.&nbsp; The mantra \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dont-fight-the-fed\/\">don\u2019t fight the Fed<\/a>\u201d was certainly a helpful one, especially since 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors are betting that the Fed will blink, as they have done time and again.&nbsp; Over the prior 13 years there have been only fleeting periods when the Fed attempted to raise rates and\/or withdraw liquidity from the system.&nbsp;&nbsp; Those have been rocky periods, but the Fed typically reversed course rather quickly.&nbsp; That\u2019s how the concept of the \u201cFed Put\u201d arose &#8212; even though history shows that while Fed intervention boosted stocks, it was <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fed-put-lives-but-its-never-been-about-stocks\/\">a welcome side effect from addressing problems elsewhere<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, I now find myself forced to invoke the most dangerous phrase in investing: \u201cthis time it\u2019s different.\u201d&nbsp; Those four words can be used to justify almost any sort of harebrained theories, so it needs to be used very judiciously.&nbsp; Ask yourself now, what might we be experiencing now that is significantly different from the prior decade-plus?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation.&nbsp; Of course it\u2019s inflation.&nbsp; We haven\u2019t seen inflation like this for about four decades.&nbsp; It was easy for the Fed to revert to accommodative policies when they didn\u2019t need to be concerned rapid inflation.&nbsp; Rising prices now pose a much greater challenge to a Fed that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20220727a.htm\">is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp; Even if we have seen peak inflation \u2013 at best, debatable after today\u2019s PCE statistics \u2013 we are running at levels far above that 2% target.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus it appears that investors are questioning the Fed\u2019s resolve.\u00a0 Fed Funds futures show a peak around the February, 2023 meeting.\u00a0 Stocks tend to look six months ahead, and they see that there is a distinct possibility that rates could in fact decrease.\u00a0 Rate cuts are exactly what liquidity addicted investors crave, so it\u2019s not surprising that they are responding positively to that prospect.\u00a0 Combine that with the oversold funk that had been infecting investors\u2019 psyches, and we were primed for a solid rally \u2013 especially when earnings came in better than feared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is \u201cDon\u2019t Play Chicken with the Fed\u201d a thing?&nbsp; That\u2019s pretty much what we\u2019re doing at this point.&nbsp; Considering the Fed\u2019s recent history of flinching first, it\u2019s understandable.&nbsp; We haven\u2019t seen a Fed this unwilling to blink since the early \u201880s.&nbsp; Oh yeah, that\u2019s also the last time inflation was this high, so let\u2019s see if Chair Powell is more like his predecessor Paul Volcker than investors think.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It appears that investors are questioning the Fed\u2019s resolve. Is \u201cDon\u2019t Play Chicken with the Fed\u201d a thing? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":47190,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,527,570,1117],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-150613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-recession","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>QED: All News is Apparently Good News for Now<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It appears that investors are questioning the Fed\u2019s resolve. 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