{"id":149906,"date":"2022-07-26T11:44:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-26T15:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=149906"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:53","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:53","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-microsoft-and-alphabet-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-the-options-market-is-expecting-for-microsoft-and-alphabet-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market is Expecting for Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In a piece last week, we asserted that <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/cocktail-hour-is-ending-please-join-us-in-the-main-dining-room\/\">this week would be the \u201cmain course\u201d<\/a> of the earnings season buffet.&nbsp; This afternoon we hear from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which alone represent just under 10% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) and about 17.5% of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX).&nbsp; With other mega-cap heavyweights like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) to come later this week, the earnings season entrees are hitting the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday afternoon, traders enjoyed the tasty morsel that was Tesla (TSLA) earnings, pushing that up just under 10% in the subsequent day\u2019s trading.&nbsp; Interestingly, the options market was somewhat blas\u00e9 ahead of what turned out to be an upside surprise.&nbsp; Since then, SPX has given back its gains, though TSLA has been resilient.&nbsp; Traders appear to be more focused on the positive surprise than the limp overall market, however, at least when it comes to GOOG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IBKR Probability Lab shows an unusual hump in above market options expiring Friday.&nbsp; We see a peak in the area around $111, about 5% higher from current levels.&nbsp; That alone would not be particularly unusual, but the relatively linear rise in at-money options and a secondary bump above market is.&nbsp; It appears that traders are sanguine about upside for GOOG after results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-goog-options-expiring-july-29th\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab for GOOG Options Expiring July 29th<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"566\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-63.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for GOOG Options Expiring July 29th\" class=\"wp-image-149908 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-63.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-63-700x406.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-63-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-63-768x446.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/566;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This sanguine view becomes apparent when we look at the skews on near-term options.&nbsp; Note the big decline in the current week\u2019s implied volatilities for above-market options in the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-goog-options-skew-july-29th-top-august-5th-middle-august-19th-bottom-expirations\"><strong>GOOG Options Skew, July 29th&nbsp;(top), August 5<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;(middle), August 19<sup>th<\/sup>(bottom) Expirations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"625\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-64.png\" alt=\"GOOG Options Skew, July 29th\u00a0(top), August 5th\u00a0(middle), August 19th(bottom) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-149909 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-64.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-64-700x449.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-64-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-64-768x492.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/625;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the options market\u2019s view of MSFT is much more neutral.&nbsp; Perhaps it is because the company already warned that a stronger dollar would be impacting its views.&nbsp; In any event, we see a fairly standard symmetrical probability distribution for options expiring this week, with the peak probability in at-money options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-msft-options-expiring-july-29th\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring July 29th<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"563\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-65.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for MSFT Options Expiring July 29th\" class=\"wp-image-149910 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-65.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-65-700x404.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-65-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-65-768x443.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/563;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The skew graph also appears fairly standard, with a nadir in implied volatility in above-market options, and the normal assymetric \u201cElvis Smile\u201d in its skew graph (downside options with generally higher implied volatilities than similarly upside options).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-msft-options-skew-july-29th-top-august-5th-middle-august-19th-bottom-expirations\"><strong>MSFT Options Skew, July 29th&nbsp;(top), August 5<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;(middle), August 19<sup>th<\/sup>(bottom) Expirations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"625\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-66.png\" alt=\"MSFT Options Skew, July 29th (top), August 5th (middle), August 19th(bottom) Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-149911 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-66.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-66-700x449.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-66-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-66-768x492.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/625;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now the question becomes whether the market has its expectations properly calibrated or not.&nbsp; With TSLA, the options market missed the move.&nbsp; Today with GOOG, they are anticipating an upside move, while with MSFT they are basically neutral.&nbsp; It\u2019s now up to the companies to let us know if more caution was warranted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This afternoon we hear from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which alone represent just under 10% of the weight of the S&#038;P 500 Index (SPX) and about 17.5% of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":93229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[155,149,267,566,567,10568,158,558,10847,207],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-149906","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-aapl","16":"tag-amzn","17":"tag-earnings","18":"tag-goog","19":"tag-googl","20":"tag-meta","21":"tag-msft","22":"tag-ndx","23":"tag-options-market","24":"tag-spx","25":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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