{"id":146879,"date":"2022-07-06T12:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-06T16:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=146879"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:30:58","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:30:58","slug":"cracking-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/cracking-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Cracking Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We saw a major break in the price of several commodities yesterday, with major foodstuffs like corn and wheat down over 4%, and energy products like West Texas crude and gasoline down over 8%.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-greenback-celebrates\/\">As we noted at the time<\/a>, the declines were the result of a convergence of a sharply stronger US dollar and recession fears.&nbsp; The former meant that fewer dollars were required to purchase a given unit of commodities, the latter meant that demand for some of those commodities would shrink alongside the economy.&nbsp; Considering that the US Dollar Index rose by just under 1.5%, it is clear that the move was more about demand concerns rather than strictly the currency appreciation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the bond market is signaling less recessionary concern than it did yesterday \u2013 yields in the 2-30 year range are up 8-9 percentage points \u2013 the dollar is continuing its advance and commodities are continuing to decline, though all at a slower pace than yesterday\u2019s.&nbsp; These moves are providing welcome relief to those fearing runaway inflation.&nbsp; That said, bear in mind that central bankers, particularly those at the Federal Reserve, prefer to consider measures of core inflation which exclude food and energy.&nbsp; Any relief from rising food and energy prices will be welcomed by consumers but may not play a significant role with monetary policy makers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The following chart points out another problem faced by consumers.&nbsp; While crude oil is a crucially important commodity, it is largely useless in its unrefined state.&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumers and most industries utilize refined products such as gasoline, heating oil, diesel, jet fuel, and more.&nbsp; It is unusual in that the most actively traded and followed form of energy is a raw material.&nbsp; We don\u2019t trade bauxite instead of aluminum, or gold-bearing rocks instead of gold, yet to some extent that is what we do when we trade crude oil.&nbsp; For the past few months, the price of crude oil has been outpaced by that of gasoline, as the chart below shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-7-month-daily-chart-rolling-front-month-contracts-rbob-gasoline-rb-red-green-wti-crude-cl-blue\"><strong>7 Month Daily Chart, Rolling Front Month Contracts, RBOB Gasoline (RB, red\/green), WTI Crude (CL, blue)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"725\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-7.png\" alt=\"7 Month Daily Chart, Rolling Front Month Contracts, RBOB Gasoline (RB, red\/green), WTI Crude (CL, blue)\" class=\"wp-image-146884 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-7.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-7-700x521.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-7-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-7-768x571.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/725;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The difference between refined products and crude oil is called the \u201ccrack spread.\u201d&nbsp; Refiners buy the crude oil and sell the resulting products to their customers at the prevailing prices for the refined products.&nbsp; We see that the crack spread for gasoline remained quite stable even as prices rose since late last year.&nbsp; The rise in the early part of this year was largely the result of an improving economy and greater post-Covid mobility.&nbsp; Then, Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices shot higher.&nbsp; We see that the crack spread remained relatively stable even during that first wave of volatility in March.&nbsp; It was only later in the spring that gasoline began to far outpace that of crude.&nbsp; The recent differential is perhaps more evident when we look at the same chart over an 18-month timeframe:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>18 Month Daily Chart, Rolling Front Month Contracts, RBOB Gasoline (RB, red\/green), WTI Crude (CL, blue)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"725\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-8.png\" alt=\"18 Month Daily Chart, Rolling Front Month Contracts, RBOB Gasoline (RB, red\/green), WTI Crude (CL, blue)\" class=\"wp-image-146886 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-8.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-8-700x521.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-8-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/image-8-768x571.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/725;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we consider how much consumers\u2019 inflationary perceptions are shaped by rising oil prices, it becomes clear why the recent angst is so persistent.&nbsp; Gasoline prices far outpaced crude and continue that outperformance even as both commodities decline.&nbsp; Furthermore, prices at the pump are usually slower to fall than those in commodities markets.&nbsp; On the plus side, some relief may be coming for embattled consumers.&nbsp; Unfortunately, it might be slow to arrive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those who invest in energy stocks need to consider whether the widened crack spread will persist.&nbsp; If not, it portends relative underperformance for refiners vis-\u00e0-vis drillers.&nbsp; If so, then refiners are likely to offer more profit potential.&nbsp; In a more macro sense, the decline in energy is likely to provide a bit of a breather for the inflation-wary, but may not be sufficient to change the Fed\u2019s mindset about core inflation and inflationary expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s declines in key commodities are like a rainstorm that breaks a long, uncomfortable heat wave.&nbsp; Some summer rainstorms are strong and persistent enough to break a drought, others simply provide welcome but temporary relief.&nbsp; As someone in a profession with a spottier predictive record than meteorology, I\u2019ll offer the suggestion that the scant evidence so far points to more of a welcome relief than a climactic change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We saw a major break in the price of several commodities yesterday, with major foodstuffs like corn and wheat down over 4%, and energy products like West Texas crude and gasoline down over 8%.  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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/oil-market_Featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146879","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=146879"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146879\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/146882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=146879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=146879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=146879"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=146879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}