{"id":139282,"date":"2022-05-18T12:17:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-18T16:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=139282"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:11","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:11","slug":"big-boxes-in-the-penalty-box-socially-unacceptable-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/big-boxes-in-the-penalty-box-socially-unacceptable-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Big Boxes in the Penalty Box + Socially Unacceptable Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I apologize in advance for trying to thread together some disparate market themes today.  I\u2019m taking a couple of days off and there are simply too many topics that warrant discussion today.  So here goes\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Veteran traders loath the phrase \u201cworst day since 1987\u201d.  Anyone who experienced the \u201987 crash will never forget the abject fear and carnage of Black Monday, and the even worse debacle of the following morning that prompted the hasty creation of the Fed\u2019s so-called \u201cplunge protection team.\u201d  I was a newly minted graduate of the famed Salomon Brothers training program[i], and it was a true baptism under fire.[ii]  I had a slight twinge of post-traumatic shock when I learned that yesterday\u2019s 11% drop in Wal-Mart<\/a> (WMT) was its worst since 1987<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was bad, but today\u2019s 24% drop in Target (TGT) is even worse \u2013 its own worst drop since 1987<\/a>.  Like WMT, TGT is seeing margin pressures that reflect their inability to fully pass along rising input prices to their customers and an inventory imbalance.  WMT is currently down over 5%, and the dual misses in TGT and WMT are pressuring other big-box retailers of consumer staples.  Costco (COST) and BJ\u2019s Wholesale (BJ), are currently down about 11% and 15% respectively.  Amazon (AMZN), which you should remember IS A RETAILER, is down 5% after conveniently acting like a tech stock that ignored WMT\u2019s miss to rise 4% yesterday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are my takeaways:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. The consumer is still spending, but inflation is making them much more cautious.  Inflation and supply chain worries are putting a significant damper on middle and working class buyer behavior. <\/li>
  2. Is the supply chain crisis on the cusp of becoming an inventory glut?  We noted yesterday that WMT had excess inventory<\/a> but that it was too soon to know if that would be a temporary phenomenon that resulted from a timing mismatch that could resolve itself naturally over the coming weeks.  Now that TGT sees similar issues, it raises the concern that these giant retailers might need to cut back their purchases in order to clear their backlogs, thus creating backlogs at manufacturers.  That would be the genesis of an inventory cycle and add to concerns about a potential recession. <\/li>
  3. My father, who spent his career as an industry analyst covering the retail sector, always warned me that it was difficult if not impossible for the broader market to launch or sustain a rally if the retail sector failed to keep pace.  With the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) about 40% off its November highs (note that it failed to confirm January\u2019s high in SPX), it is hard to imagine that the conditions are in place for a major market bottom until this sector resolves its woes.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    On a somewhat different note, I was asked yesterday why some historical volatility measures rose even on such a strongly positive day.  It is important to remember that historical volatility<\/em><\/strong> doesn\u2019t care if moves are up or down, just the absolute value of the moves of the product in question.  A day that is up 2% counts just the same as a day that is down 2%.  Implied volatility<\/em><\/strong> is determined by traders\u2019 demand for options.  Traders tend to pay relatively more for options on down days than they do on up days, which is why we tend to see VIX \u2013 an implied volatility-based index \u2013 move inversely with the broad market.   This article more fully explains the differences between historical and implied volatility<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Finally, we get into what I like to call \u201cSocially Acceptable Volatility<\/a>.\u201d[iii]  Yesterday is what we would consider a bout of socially acceptable volatility.  No one seemed to mind when major US indices rose 2% or more.  That\u2019s what they\u2019re supposed to do<\/em>, right?  But there is a feeling that something is wrong when we decline by a similar amount.  That\u2019s fair \u2013 most investors are long, and equity markets usually go up over time.  I\u2019ll leave you with a chart that highlights the distinction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S&P 500 Index (SPX), 3-Day Graph, 1-Minute Bars, May 16-18th<\/sup>, 2022<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    [i] The year after Michael Lewis\u2019 training class<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    [ii] Attention reporters \u2013 this year will be the 35th<\/sup> anniversary of the crash.  I would be glad to discuss my recollections, particularly surrounding the following day \u2013 which was actually worse<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    [iii] A term coined by my friend Steve Sears that I liberally appropriate and literally footnote<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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