{"id":134706,"date":"2022-04-20T12:51:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-20T16:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=134706"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:21","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:21","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tesla-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-telling-us-about-tesla-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market is Telling Us About Tesla Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today is April 20<sup>th<\/sup>, or 4\/20, one of the magic numbers to Elon Musk whisperers.&nbsp; Of course this is the day that Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TSLA is perpetually the most actively traded stock and options class by Interactive Brokers\u2019 customers, so it is reasonable to think that many of you have a vested interest in seeing the options market\u2019s anticipation for the post-earnings reaction to TSLA earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below shows that option expiring this Friday have a fairly symmetrical probability distribution, thought with relatively fat tails. That implies that traders are prepared for a wide range of outcomes, with no particular preference for an advance or decline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-tsla-options-expiring-april-22nd-2022\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring April 22<sup>nd<\/sup>, 2022<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"744\" height=\"297\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-prob-lab.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for TSLA Options Expiring April 22nd, 2022\" class=\"wp-image-134708 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-prob-lab.png 744w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-prob-lab-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-prob-lab-300x120.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 744px) 100vw, 744px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 744px; aspect-ratio: 744\/297;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have seen the skew on those options show a steady amount of risk aversion, even as the implied volatility rose.&nbsp; It is normal to see implied volatility rise as we approach a company\u2019s earnings date, since options buyers want to wait until the last minute before buying an option with high implied volatility and decay. &nbsp;The current at-money options imply a roughly 7% move after earnings, which is about average for TSLA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Time Lapse Skew in TSLA Options Expiring April 22<sup>nd<\/sup>, 2022, as of April 20<sup>th<\/sup>, 19<sup>th<\/sup>, 18<sup>th<\/sup> (top to bottom)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"498\" height=\"301\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-Time-lapse-skew.png\" alt=\"Time Lapse Skew in TSLA Options Expiring April 22nd, 2022, as of April 20th, 19th, 18th (top to bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-134709 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-Time-lapse-skew.png 498w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-Time-lapse-skew-300x181.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 498px) 100vw, 498px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 498px; aspect-ratio: 498\/301;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, the multi-expiry skew shows relatively normal levels of risk aversion, with implied volatilities for near-term weekly options showing a dip about 7% above the current market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Multi-Expiry Skew for TSLA, April 22<sup>nd<\/sup> expiry (dark blue), April 29<sup>th<\/sup> (light blue), May 20<sup>th<\/sup> (yellow)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"499\" height=\"295\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-multi-skew.png\" alt=\"Multi-Expiry Skew for TSLA, April 22nd expiry (dark blue), April 29th (light blue), May 20th (yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-134710 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-multi-skew.png 499w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/04\/TSLA-multi-skew-300x177.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 499px) 100vw, 499px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 499px; aspect-ratio: 499\/295;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In short, traders are expecting relative normalcy from TSLA, with a roughly 7% post-earnings move priced in and some traders relatively sanguine about seeing that move occur to the upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is the day that Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the close. Many are interested in the options market\u2019s post-earnings reaction to TSLA earnings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":68510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-134706","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-tesla","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What the Options Market is Telling Us About Tesla Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This is the day that Tesla (TSLA) reports earnings after the close. 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