{"id":129283,"date":"2022-03-21T12:40:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-21T16:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=129283"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:32","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:32","slug":"vix-closer-to-all-clear-while-bonds-get-nervous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-closer-to-all-clear-while-bonds-get-nervous\/","title":{"rendered":"VIX Closer to \u201cAll Clear\u201d While Bonds Get Nervous"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Think back to those nervous days of \u2026 checks notes \u2026 a week ago. Stock traders were gloomy amidst grim news from Ukraine and ahead of an FOMC meeting.&nbsp; Since then, the news from Ukraine remains grim, but Chairman Powell successfully reprised his role as \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-in-a-suit-sully-sullenberger\/\">Goldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d \u2013 at least as far as equity investors were concerned.&nbsp; From Monday\u2019s close to Friday\u2019s, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) rose nearly 7% and the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) rose over 10%.&nbsp; Stocks had a good year last week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-day-chart-5-minute-bars-march-14-21st-spx-green-red-ndx-blue\"><strong>6 Day Chart, 5 Minute Bars, March 14-21<sup>st<\/sup>, SPX (green\/red), NDX (blue)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"733\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-65.png\" alt=\"6 Day Chart, 5 Minute Bars, March 14-21st, SPX (green\/red), NDX (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-129679 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-65.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-65-700x526.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-65-300x226.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-65-768x577.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/733;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-stock-market-cha-cha\/\">While we were prescient enough on March 10<sup>th<\/sup><\/a> to opine \u201cThere is reason for bulls, or at least dip-buyers, to eye next week\u2019s FOMC announcement\u201d, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/is-the-market-already-pricing-in-goldilocks\/\">we then wondered on Wednesday<\/a> \u201cwhether traders have gotten ahead of themselves yesterday and this morning in pricing in a bounce.\u201d&nbsp; Although we are well aware that some of the largest upward market moves can <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/\">occur within the context of a down market<\/a>, the change in sentiment was quite impressive nonetheless.&nbsp; Note the move in the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) futures curve over just a week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>VIX Futures Curves, 1 Week Ago vs. Current<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"537\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-66.png\" alt=\"VIX Futures Curves, 1 Week Ago vs. Current\" class=\"wp-image-129680 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-66.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-66-700x386.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-66-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-66-768x423.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/537;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The week\u2019s move was notable not only because spot VIX fell over 8 points in just a week[i] to a reading in the low 20\u2019s, but the curve quickly shifted from nervous-seeming backwardation to complacent-seeming contango in that timeframe.&nbsp; It is too early to call the sentiment truly complacent \u2013 that would usually require a spot VIX in the teens \u2013 but it is clear that volatility assumptions became much tamer over the remainder of the tradeable year.&nbsp; Bear in mind that the Fed has neither said that they will remain limited to 25 basis points (bp) for subsequent meetings nor given any clarity about when they intend to begin reducing its balance sheet.&nbsp; Apparently the fact they declined to take more aggressive action now was sufficient to mollify traders\u2019 views of both present and future volatility.&nbsp; (Oh, by the way, there is a mid-term election in November.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That seems like we got the all-clear, right?&nbsp; Not so fast.&nbsp; Stock traders\u2019 gloomier cousins in the bond markets are far less sanguine.&nbsp; The prices of 2-Year and 10-Year note futures fell steadily over that same period:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>6 Day Chart, 5 Minute Bars, March 14-21<sup>st<\/sup>, 2-Year Futures (red\/green), 10-Year Futures (blue)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"733\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-67.png\" alt=\"6 Day Chart, 5 Minute Bars, March 14-21st, 2-Year Futures (red\/green), 10-Year Futures (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-129681 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-67.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-67-700x526.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-67-300x226.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-67-768x577.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/733;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While it is certainly the case that the 10-Year futures fell far more than the 2-Years, that is a function of their longer duration.&nbsp; Bonds with longer durations move more than those with shorter durations, even if the moves in yields are relatively similar.&nbsp; We see that in the following graph of changes in the Treasury yield curve:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>US Treasury Active Yield Curve, 2-30 Year Tenors, Current (green) vs. One Week Ago (orange)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"556\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-68.png\" alt=\"US Treasury Active Yield Curve, 2-30 Year Tenors, Current (green) vs. One Week Ago (orange)\" class=\"wp-image-129682 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-68.png 1080w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-68-700x360.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-68-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-68-768x395.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1080px; aspect-ratio: 1080\/556;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the course of the week we saw 2-Year rates rise by about 16bp, and 10-Year rates rise by about 11bp.&nbsp; That means that the 2-10 spread, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2s-10s-and-banks\/\">which is important for bank profitability<\/a>, contracted by 5 bp to a skimpy 22 bp spread.&nbsp; More important, note the little humps between 3- and 5-Year, and between 7- and 10-Year yields.&nbsp; Those are inversions.&nbsp; Minor and nearly imperceptible inversions, to be sure, but bond traders are always on the alert for those types of signals.&nbsp; Inverted yield curves can imply recession risk.&nbsp; The full curve is far from inverted, but the trend seems to be moving in that direction.&nbsp; Note the overall rise in rates and the flattening yield curve that we have seen over the past three months:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>US Treasury Active Yield Curve, 2-30 Year Tenors, Current (green dots and triangles) vs. One Week Ago (orange dots and stars), One Month Ago (green dashes and square), Three Months Ago (orange dashes and circles)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1083\" height=\"614\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-69.png\" alt=\"US Treasury Active Yield Curve, 2-30 Year Tenors, Current (green dots and triangles) vs. One Week Ago (orange dots and stars), One Month Ago (green dashes and square), Three Months Ago (orange dashes and circles)\" class=\"wp-image-129683 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-69.png 1083w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-69-700x397.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-69-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-69-768x435.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1083px) 100vw, 1083px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1083px; aspect-ratio: 1083\/614;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bullish investors would love to view last week\u2019s equity rally as a key turning point after nearly three months of declines.&nbsp; It\u2019s not clear that bond markets agree.&nbsp; Time will tell whether we saw the start of a new bull market or yet another in a series of \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/when-does-sell-the-rips-replace-buy-the-dips\/\">buy-the-dip, sell-the-rip<\/a>\u201d events that we\u2019ve seen this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[i] Yes, it\u2019s about 25%, but VIX is one of the few indices where I think that expressing moves in percentage changes can be misleading<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bullish investors would love to view last week\u2019s equity rally as a key turning point after nearly three months of declines.  It\u2019s not clear that bond markets agree.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":93229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[45,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-129283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bonds","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>VIX Closer to \u201cAll Clear\u201d While Bonds Get Nervous<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bullish investors would love to view last week\u2019s equity rally as a key turning point after nearly three months of declines. 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