{"id":128147,"date":"2022-03-10T12:25:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T17:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=128147"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:35","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:35","slug":"the-stock-market-cha-cha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-stock-market-cha-cha\/","title":{"rendered":"The Stock Market Cha-Cha"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I have to admit, I was planning to title this piece \u201cOne Step Forward, Two Steps Back\u201d, but then it occurred to me that is was the title of a 1904 book by V.I. Lenin.&nbsp; Yes that Lenin.&nbsp; While we could assert that his legacy has more than a little to do with the current stock market malaise, equities had already been in a bit of a funk before the Ukraine crisis took center stage.&nbsp; Not including today, which is shaping up to be another down day, there have been 45 trading days so far this year and 28 of them have seen the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) close lower.&nbsp; For many investors, two out of three are bad (apologies to the late great Meat Loaf and Jim Steinman).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wish I could say that this year\u2019s general themes are unanticipated, but faithful readers will know that we have discussed several of them at length (ad nauseum?) over the course of the past few months.&nbsp; Prior to the start of the year, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2022-outlook-big-waves-ahead\/\">our outlook stressed the likelihood of a return to a more volatile environment<\/a>.&nbsp; In mid-January we reminded readers that traders should not forget about the second half of the phrase <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/when-does-sell-the-rips-replace-buy-the-dips\/\">\u201cbuy the dips, sell the rips.\u201d<\/a>&nbsp; Just over a month ago, after a sharp rally similar to the one we saw yesterday, we reminded readers that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/\">bear market rallies are short, sharp and ferocious.<\/a>\u201d&nbsp; About two weeks ago we noted that even though the VIX futures curve was inverted, that is <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/vix-inversion-is-a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-signal\/\">a necessary, but not sufficient condition to presage a market bounce<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I realize that no one likes to be told \u201cI told you so,\u201d but there we have it.&nbsp; It is important now to be looking for signals that the tide of negative sentiment has truly turned.&nbsp; As of today, that seems unlikely with war continuing to rage in Ukraine.&nbsp; There are still too many unanswerable questions about the effect that the conflict will have on key global commodity supplies, such as oil, gas, and wheat, though it has been encouraging to see them <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/parabolic-charts-mean-someone-is-in-pain\/\">halt their parabolic advances<\/a> over the past couple of days.&nbsp; Those who were looking for a hopeful sign in today\u2019s CPI numbers were thwarted.&nbsp; The statistics were in line with expectations but still high enough for the negative headlines reminding us that it was a 40-year high and that today\u2019s reading was taken prior to seeing the full effect of the hostilities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is reason for bulls, or at least dip-buyers, to eye next week\u2019s FOMC announcement.&nbsp; Since the Fed has moved from an easing to a tightening stance we have seen a change to the pattern of post-meeting moves.&nbsp; &nbsp;In the post-Covid era, 10 of the first 12 FOMC meetings saw a decline in the 3-day period that encompassed the announcement.&nbsp; Remember, this was during a relentless bull market and amidst record monetary accommodation.&nbsp; It was likely that traders priced in too much good news from the FOMC and Chair Powell.&nbsp; Since September, when the rhetoric moved away from accommodation, three out of those four meetings have seen higher markets.&nbsp; The table below tells the story:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"643\" height=\"658\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-34.png\" alt=\"3 Day Changes after Previous FOMC Meetings\t Close of Prior Day through 2 Days After Announcement\n\t\t\t\t\n\" class=\"wp-image-128148 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-34.png 643w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/03\/image-34-300x307.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 643px; aspect-ratio: 643\/658;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Data Source: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The exception to the moves higher after the past four sessions was the December meeting, which coincided with a quarterly expiration.&nbsp; All five of the last FOMC meetings that occurred in quarterly expiration weeks saw lower closes.&nbsp; Next week\u2019s meeting on March 16<sup>th<\/sup> comes two days ahead of a quarterly expiration on March 18<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; Although Chair Powell has signaled somewhat unequivocally that he will be recommending a 25 basis point hike next week, which appears dovish and well-discounted by traders, the volatile global environment could lead the statement and subsequent press conference in unpredictable directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shifting gears, there was the big news after the close about Amazon (AMZN) announcing a 20:1 stock split.&nbsp; This comes on the heels of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) making a similar decision early last month.&nbsp; At the time, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/splitting-alphabet-may-be-a-boon-to-options-traders\/\">we discussed the ramifications of the GOOG stock split<\/a>, noting that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u2026 stock splits have no bearing on a corporation\u2019s business or balance sheet.&nbsp; They are the equivalent of making change.&nbsp; You give me a $20 bill and I give you back 20 singles.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet we also noted that stock splits can have a positive impact on the liquidity of a stock\u2019s trading and have profoundly positive benefits to the affordability and liquidity of its options.&nbsp; I urge those with questions about the AMZN split to read the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/splitting-alphabet-may-be-a-boon-to-options-traders\/\">linked report<\/a>, with the added caveat that the AMZN split is not neatly tied to an expiration in the way that GOOG\u2019s is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, while I avoided Lenin and gave side eye to Meat Loaf, be thankful that I didn\u2019t need to reference Olivia Rodrigo\u2019s \u201c1 step forward, 3 steps back.\u201d&nbsp; We\u2019re not at that point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There have been 45 trading days so far this year and 28 of them have seen the S&#038;P 500 Index (SPX) close lower. But there is reason for bulls, or at least dip-buyers, to eye next week\u2019s FOMC announcement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3121,314],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-128147","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-fixed-income","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-buy-the-dip","17":"tag-fomc","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=128147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128147\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=128147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=128147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=128147"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=128147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}