{"id":122702,"date":"2022-02-07T13:42:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-07T18:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=122702"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:47","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:47","slug":"bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bear-market-rallies-are-short-sharp-and-ferocious\/","title":{"rendered":"Bear Market Rallies are Short, Sharp, and Ferocious"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Most investors fare better in bull markets than in correcting or bear markets.&nbsp; It\u2019s a simple premise.&nbsp; Many more investors are long rather than short at any given time.&nbsp; Would it then surprise you to find that almost all the S&amp;P 500 Index\u2019 (SPX) best days occurred during bear markets?&nbsp;&nbsp; Here is the evidence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-largest-positive-percentage-changes-for-spx\">Largest Positive Percentage Changes for SPX<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full img-twothird\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"522\" height=\"771\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SP-best-days.png\" alt=\"Largest Positive Percentage Changes for SPX\" class=\"wp-image-122712 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SP-best-days.png 522w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SP-best-days-300x443.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 522px) 100vw, 522px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 522px; aspect-ratio: 522\/771;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index\"><em>Wikipedia<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see that the majority of those dates occurred in the 1930\u2019s, aka the Great Depression.&nbsp; Anyone who bought from late 1929 through mid-1932 were undoubtedly disappointed after chasing the stellar one-day rallies that occurred during that period, as seen below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"10-year-weekly-chart-spx-1929-1939\"><strong>10-Year Weekly Chart, SPX, 1929-1939<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"482\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-1100x482.png\" alt=\"10-Year Weekly Chart, SPX, 1929-1939\" class=\"wp-image-122713 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-1100x482.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-700x307.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-768x336.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s-1536x673.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/SPX-in-the-30s.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/482;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see that the market bottomed in July 1932, but didn\u2019t really find its footing until the New Deal was introduced in 1933.&nbsp; Similar disappointments were felt by those who chased the rallies in October 2008.&nbsp; Massive government intervention fueled the big jumps in March 1933, March 2009 and March 2020 as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key for investors is to discern whether a big rally is being caused by a fundamental turning point or simply an oversold bounce.&nbsp;&nbsp; To be fair, that is easier said than done.&nbsp; When I think about some of the most important market bottoms that I have seen, they were somewhat evident at the time, but more clearly so in hindsight.&nbsp; Those include August 1982, when the Volcker Fed eased off its inflation fighting stance; March 2009, when it was clear that we\u2019d seen the worst of the global financial crisis; and, as mentioned above, March 2020.&nbsp; Though the first two of those dates do not appear in the table above, they were <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#cite_note-Spindices-2\">the largest rallies for their respective years<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two of the dates in the table above came immediately after market crashes.&nbsp; It is clear that there is some sort of financial inertia at work.&nbsp; While those actions were not met with equal opposite reactions, they clearly resulted in oversold bounces.&nbsp; It is human nature to buy the dips, and those were literally the biggest dips in history.&nbsp; The two-day period of October 28<sup>th<\/sup> and 29<sup>th<\/sup> of 1929, October 19<sup>th<\/sup>, 1987, and March 16<sup>th<\/sup>, 2020 rank first, second and third on the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#cite_note-Spindices-2\">percentage decliners list<\/a>.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the rallies on October 30<sup>th<\/sup>, 1929 and October 21<sup>st<\/sup>, 1987 fizzled out shortly afterwards. &nbsp;The crashes of the day prior were indeed the turning points, not the subsequent rallies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why do we see these sharp rallies during bear markets?&nbsp; They are largely caused by fear of missing out (FOMO) and hope.&nbsp; It is human nature for people to want to see a light at the end of a tunnel, and for investors to want to jump in if they think that the end is indeed in sight.&nbsp; Times like that are when it is important to consider whether one should be <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/when-does-sell-the-rips-replace-buy-the-dips\/\">selling the rips after buying the dips<\/a>.&nbsp; There is an old saying that reminds us that sometimes the light in the tunnel is an oncoming train.&nbsp; It is easy to get seduced by a rally, even if it is ephemeral.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At this point, you may wonder why we\u2019re discussing this topic today, when we are not in a bear market in equities.&nbsp; That is true for SPX, but the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RTY) are more than 20% below their recent highs.&nbsp; That is the accepted definition of a bear market, and sure enough, both had solid bounces last week.&nbsp; Neither made the top 20 list, but there were certainly elements of FOMO after oversold conditions were reached.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, we saw real bear market rallies in a wide range of cryptocurrencies in the past few days.&nbsp; Bitcoin and Ethereum are up over 25% from their recent lows \u2013 though well below recent highs \u2013 and we are seeing even bigger gains in smaller currencies and so-called \u201cmeme\u201d cryptos like Dogecoin.&nbsp; As noted above, ask yourself whether we have seen a turning point over the past week to drive cryptos higher, or whether this is an oversold bounce.&nbsp; It can be seductive and quite profitable to play a rally that follows an oversold market.&nbsp; It is also crucially important to know whether this is a trading opportunity or an investable rally.&nbsp; It\u2019s quite hard to tell the difference, and to believe it\u2019s the latter when it\u2019s actually the former.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Would it surprise you to find that almost all the S&#038;P 500 Index\u2019 (SPX) best days occurred during bear markets?   Here is the evidence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":102404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3562],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-122702","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-bear-market","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bear Market Rallies are Short, Sharp, and Ferocious<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Would it surprise you to find that almost all the S&amp;P 500 Index\u2019 (SPX) best days occurred during bear markets? 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