{"id":122286,"date":"2022-02-03T13:28:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-03T18:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=122286"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:49","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:49","slug":"a-face-plant-in-the-metaverse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/a-face-plant-in-the-metaverse\/","title":{"rendered":"A Face Plant in the Metaverse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What happens when a leading growth stock stops growing?&nbsp; Its stock price falls by 20% or more.&nbsp; We saw it two weeks ago when Netflix (NFLX) reported slowing subscriber growth in its earnings release, and we see it again today after Meta Platforms (FB) said something similar yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) has always been the holy grail for investors.&nbsp; Identifying a company with solid growth in revenues, earnings, and\/or cash flows that was trading at a multiple around the market\u2019s average was often a reliable path to a profitable investment.&nbsp; Sometime during the past two years, I believe that GARP morphed into Growth at Any Price (GAAP)<sup>[i]<\/sup>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are several factors that caused that change.&nbsp;&nbsp; For one, the massive market inflows tended to gravitate toward well-known, high-performing stocks.&nbsp; Success breeds success.&nbsp; The rising popularity of passive investing and ETFs then caused a feedback loop.&nbsp; As these companies outperformed, their weight in popular market-capitalization weighted indices like the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) grew.&nbsp; Indexers and ETFs had no choice but follow along and buy more as money flowed into their funds.&nbsp; Finally, the era of negative real interest rates made a mockery of conventional valuation measures.&nbsp; One can apply near-infinite valuations to future cash flows when discounting them at zero or negative real rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As investors crowd into winning stocks, they sometimes become oblivious to the fact that it can be increasingly difficult to exit them en masse.&nbsp; Sure, it\u2019s easy to sell stock into a rising market, making day-to-day trading quite easy, but if something causes investors to rush to the exits, it can get ugly quickly.&nbsp; I warned of this risk periodically, most recently <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-couple-of-risk-off-days-do-not-make-a-crisis-yet\/\">about a month ago<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cAfter March of 2020, the tech sector was perceived as a relative bastion of stability\u2026&nbsp; If investors had a change of mindset that changed their fundament perception of the relatively crowded tech sector, the rush to exits from a crowded trade could have a profound effect on tech volatility specifically and market volatility over all.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A rush to the exits can cause a dangerous stampede, both in the real world and in markets.&nbsp; In the investing world, if the stampede occurs in a key holding in a wide range of both indexed and active portfolios, the collateral damage can be severe.&nbsp; That\u2019s why we see major indices under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those of you keeping score at home, FB\u2019s decline means that 2 of the 5 FAANG names (FB, NFLX) got clobbered after earnings and 2 have been rewarded handsomely (Apple [AAPL], and Alphabet [GOOG &amp; GOOGL])<sup>[ii]<\/sup>.&nbsp; That leaves Amazon (AMZN), which reports earnings after the close today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Options traders have become understandably cautious in AMZN.&nbsp; A current view of the IBKR Probability Lab shows that AMZN options that expire tomorrow afternoon are pricing in a peak likelihood of a decline to about 2700, as shown in the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-view-of-amzn-options-expiring-february-4th-2022-taken-on-february-3rd\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab View of AMZN Options Expiring February 4<sup>th<\/sup>, 2022, Taken on February 3rd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"818\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab-1100x818.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab View of AMZN Options Expiring February 4th, 2022, Taken on February 3rd\" class=\"wp-image-122289 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab-1100x818.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab-700x521.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab-768x571.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/02\/AMZN-prob-lab.png 1428w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/818;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a drop of about 4% from current levels, even after dropping about 7% this morning.&nbsp; Bear in mind that the average post-earnings price move for AMZN has been 6.39% (according to Bloomberg data), and that the stock has declined after 8 of the past 10 earnings releases.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We will know in a few hours whether yet another highly-valued growth company will be the victim of a rush to the exits or be able to snap back after a solid report.&nbsp;&nbsp; Even after a nearly 20% decline year-to-date (with this year only just over one month old!), AMZN still trades at over 48x its estimated earnings.&nbsp; Buckle up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[i] Ironically, GAAP is also the acronym for Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, a form of reporting that is sometimes shunned by fast-growing companies.&nbsp; For example, the most closely followed earnings measure for Tesla (TSLA) is a non-GAAP number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[ii] Another irony \u2013 2 of the 5 names in FAANG no longer make sense after Facebook became Meta and Google became Alphabet.&nbsp; But the symbols still work for the acronym.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What happens when a leading growth stock stops growing? Its stock price falls by 20% or more. We saw it two weeks ago when Netflix reported slowing subscriber growth in its earnings release, and we see it again today after Meta Platforms said something similar yesterday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21093,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[465,10286],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-122286","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-facebook","17":"tag-metaverse","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Face Plant in the Metaverse | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What happens when a leading growth stock stops growing? 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