{"id":121182,"date":"2022-01-27T12:55:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-27T17:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=121182"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:50","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:50","slug":"this-one-is-too-hot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/this-one-is-too-hot\/","title":{"rendered":"This One Is Too Hot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As we <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fomc-january-2022-edition\/\">opined yesterday<\/a>, the FOMC meeting did indeed prove to be a consequential one.&nbsp; Federal Reserve Chair Powell did little to sugarcoat his message that interest rate hikes and a smaller balance sheet would be among the tools that he would be using to fight inflationary pressures.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We were largely correct about our assessment about how the market would react to the FOMC statement and the Chair\u2019s subsequent press conference, but not 100% correct.&nbsp; We wrote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cOne thing that some equity investors expect is that the Fed will take the recent equity market volatility into account.&nbsp; Sorry, but I don\u2019t see that happening\u2026Furthermore, while I think that Mr. Powell will try to avoid riling investors during his press conference, there is no guarantee that he will succeed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While we correctly asserted that Mr. Powell would not take equity market volatility into account, he also made little effort to avoid riling investors.&nbsp; He made little effort to sugarcoat the medicine that he was prescribing.&nbsp; Both bond and stock markets were rattled.&nbsp; The 2-year yield, which was at 1%, which was relatively elevated compared to recent levels, moved another 15 basis points high after the meeting.&nbsp; The 10-year yield shot from 1.77% to about 1.87%, though yields have eased to about 1.80% right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Major US equity indices, which were broadly higher before the 2pm announcement, quickly gave back their gains and closed basically unchanged on the day.&nbsp; Today we are seeing something of a recovery, as the graph below shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-day-intraday-charts-1-minute-bars-spx-red-green-ndx-blue\"><strong>3 Day Intraday Charts, 1 Minute Bars, SPX (red\/green), NDX (blue)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"555\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-115.png\" alt=\"3 Day Intraday Charts, 1 Minute Bars, SPX (red\/green), NDX (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-121188 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-115.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-115-700x398.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-115-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-115-768x437.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/555;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those of us who follow options markets should not be surprised that stocks are trying to rally yet again.&nbsp; We noted that options traders were assigning their highest probability to a move higher this week, and we still see that enthusiasm baked into pricing.&nbsp; SPY options that expire tomorrow still show a probability peak about 1% above current levels, and those that expire on February 18<sup>th<\/sup> (regular monthly expiration) have a peak nearly 3% higher than today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ibkr-probability-lab-for-spy-on-1-27-22-for-options-expiring-1-28-22\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab for SPY on 1\/27\/22 for options expiring 1\/28\/22<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"591\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-116.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPY on 1\/27\/22 for options expiring 1\/28\/22\" class=\"wp-image-121189 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-116.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-116-700x424.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-116-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-116-768x466.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/591;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ibkr-probability-lab-for-spy-on-1-27-22-for-options-expiring-2-18-22\"><strong>IBKR Probability Lab for SPY on 1\/27\/22 for options expiring 2\/18\/22<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"591\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-117.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPY on 1\/27\/22 for options expiring 2\/18\/22\" class=\"wp-image-121190 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-117.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-117-700x424.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-117-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/01\/image-117-768x466.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/591;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can see that traders remain sanguine even after the recent drops \u2013 or perhaps because of them.&nbsp; The impulse to buy-the-dip remains hardwired into many traders and investors alike, and one can certainly assert that this year\u2019s correction has indeed made many leading stocks, and hence key indices, cheaper on a fundamental basis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question for traders now is whether to trust the message of the options market or to take a contrarian view.&nbsp; It is not unreasonable to expect a bounce after a big decline, but speculators who utilize call options should also be aware that a steady rise in markets is usually accompanied by declines in implied volatility \u2013 especially when volatility is elevated after a drop in markets.&nbsp; If implied volatility declines, that mitigates the price appreciation of one\u2019s long options positions.&nbsp; My gut is that some skepticism is required.&nbsp; While there are many reasons why stocks could or should rally over the coming days, I think that the options markets are a bit too sanguine.&nbsp; If you believe in being fearful when others are greedy, we are already seeing a solid helping of greed returning to options pricing \u2013 even as we have not fully reckoned with all the fear in the marketplace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today we are seeing something of a recovery. The question for traders now is whether to trust the message of the options market or to take a contrarian view.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":121198,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[314,7907],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-121182","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-fomc","17":"tag-market-recovery","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This One Is Too Hot | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today we are seeing something of a recovery. 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