{"id":119849,"date":"2022-01-20T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-20T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=119849"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:52","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:52","slug":"as-monthly-expirations-go-january-is-a-big-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/as-monthly-expirations-go-january-is-a-big-one\/","title":{"rendered":"As Monthly Expirations Go, January is a Big One"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By now, options traders have become quite inured to expirations.&nbsp; They were a big deal when I started in the business.&nbsp; Options expired on the third Friday of each month and index futures expired on the third Friday of months that contained a quarter\u2019s end.&nbsp; Over time we have become quite used to weekly expirations in the most active equity options classes and now have thrice-weekly expiry of key ETFs like SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Triple-witching (and for a while, quadruple-witching) was a big deal \u2013 a day when unexpected volatility could rear its head in strange ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we have all experienced, the more you do something the easier it tends to get.<sup>[i]&nbsp;<\/sup> The same applies to options expirations.&nbsp; Market makers, index rebalancers, and other market participants simply got better at anticipating outcomes and hedging them with minimal impact.&nbsp; Although we have seen <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/a-quarterly-tradition\/\">significant moves around recent quarterly expirations<\/a>, and <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/expiring-open-interest-magnet-or-slingshot\/\">weekly expirations took on added significance<\/a> in recent months as individual traders became increasingly enamored with options speculation, expirations generally don\u2019t move markets simply because it\u2019s the third Friday of the month anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, January\u2019s expiration is first among equals when it comes to monthly expirations.&nbsp; We have the popularity of LEAPS to thank for that. &nbsp;LEAPS is an acronym for Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities, a catchy way of branding options with 1-3 year expiries.&nbsp; LEAPS have become popular with a wide range of investors, either as a lower-cost tool for speculation or as a long-term hedge against specific stocks, portfolios and even bonds.<sup>[ii]<\/sup>&nbsp; An interesting feature of LEAPS is that the listings are dynamic.&nbsp; As a stock moves, the exchanges tend to list new strikes so that there will always be a reasonable range of strikes that are near the money.&nbsp; That can lead to a ridiculous number of expiring strikes in a given January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take Tesla (TSLA) as an extreme example.&nbsp; TSLA was trading around $50 (on a split-adjusted basis) in the fall of 2019, which is when this week\u2019s expiring LEAPS were first listed.&nbsp; As the stock was propelled from that level to its recent highs around $1250 (!), new strikes were added.&nbsp; There are strikes in $1 increments from $1 to $200, in $2 increments from $200 to nearly $400, and a mix of $5 and $10 increments up to $1400 and $25 increments all the way to $2475.&nbsp; As a result we have literally hundreds of strikes expiring in TSLA alone on Friday!&nbsp; I always joked that the system breathed a sigh of relief on the Monday that followed January expiration, simply because there were so many fewer strikes to be priced and updated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much has been made of the fact that <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sm_sears\/status\/1483480940131274760?s=20\">over $3 trillion in notional value<\/a> is set to expire tomorrow.&nbsp; I will assert that much of that figure is inflated by open interest in expiring LEAPS that are either deeply in- or out-of-the-money, with deltas of 0 or 100.&nbsp; Those options are too far away to require much additional hedging.&nbsp; That said, I do believe that some of the extraordinary movements that we have seen this week are at least peripherally related to this week\u2019s monthly expiration.&nbsp; Remember, <strong>every time a stock crosses an expiring strike, some trader needs to re-hedge<\/strong>.&nbsp; We have crossed a significant number of strikes this week \u2013 first on the way down, and now some on the way back up after today\u2019s bounce.&nbsp; The LEAPS with extreme strikes, while a significant piece of the expiration cycle, are not causing the volatility tied to this week\u2019s expiration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[i] This is particularly appropriate if you\u2019ve ever needed to assemble furniture armed only with a hex wrench and pictograms<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[ii] This linkage took on great significance in 2008, when credit default swaps were being actively hedged with low-strike, long-term options.&nbsp; The logic is sound \u2013 if a company is headed for bankruptcy, and hence a bond default, its will likely head toward zero.&nbsp; Bond creditors rank above equity holders in settling a bankruptcy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we have all experienced, the more you do something the easier it tends to get.  The same applies to options expirations.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":97347,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,17,14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[10938,10820],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-119849","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-futures","10":"category-ibkr-market-insights","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-options","13":"category-region","14":"category-securities","15":"category-stocks","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-leaps","19":"tag-options-expiration","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>As Monthly Expirations Go, January is a Big One<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As we have all experienced, the more you do something the easier it tends to get. 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