{"id":118913,"date":"2022-01-12T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-12T17:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=118913"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:31:56","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:31:56","slug":"goldilocks-in-a-suit-sully-sullenberger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-in-a-suit-sully-sullenberger\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldilocks in a Suit or Sully Sullenberger?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell worked his magic once again yesterday.&nbsp; Powell\u2019s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee proved to be yet another in a series of catalysts for rallies based upon commentary that soothed traders\u2019 frayed nerves.&nbsp; When a reporter asked me to explain upon the Chairman\u2019s role in yesterday\u2019s buoyant markets, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-01-10\/asia-stocks-may-benefit-from-late-u-s-rebound-markets-wrap?srnd=premium&amp;sref=UQoV8r0O\">I quipped<\/a> that the Chairman <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-is-a-68-year-old-man-in-a-suit\/\">once again<\/a> played the role of \u201cGoldilocks in a suit.\u201d He assuaged investors\u2019 concerns that the Fed\u2019s need to address worrisome inflation would not necessarily come at the expense of asset markets.&nbsp;&nbsp; This morning\u2019s CPI release, which was broadly in-line with expectations<sup>[i]<\/sup>, did nothing to dent the newly ebullient mood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But while I\u2019m gratified that my Goldilocks comment seemed to resonate with readers, I have a nagging suspicion that my comparison was inapt.&nbsp; The Chairman wasn\u2019t telling us that the porridge was neither too-hot nor too-cold.&nbsp; Instead he told us that even though it was scalding hot at the moment, it would sufficiently cool soon enough.&nbsp; Furthermore, if it stayed uncomfortably hot for longer than he thought, it wouldn\u2019t really burn our tongues if we tried it anyway.&nbsp; Goldilocks was a benign tester of porridge and beds \u2013 at least before her eventual mauling by a trio of bears \u2013 not someone forced to safely navigate a treacherous, unpredictable situation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, it occurred to me that investors have decided that Jerome Powell is a financial version of Captain Chesley Sullenberger.&nbsp; For those who have forgotten the reference, \u201cSully\u201d became famous for guiding a stricken airplane to a safe landing in the Hudson River.&nbsp; Faced with a set of unexpected, incredibly difficult circumstances \u2013 in his case, a commercial airliner with both engines disabled by bird strikes shortly after takeoff \u2013 he used his knowledge and training to ultimately bring the plane under his command to a safe landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s the problem with that analogy: we have no idea if Mr. Powell will be able to land the market without incident this time around.&nbsp; While it is clear that investors are enamored with the Fed\u2019s response to the Covid crisis in early 2020, the current situation is quite different.&nbsp; Nearly two years ago (gasp -2 years ago!), the Fed was able to utilize a playbook that has worked during previous crises.&nbsp; They cut rates, flooded the system with liquidity via conventional measures and quantitative easing, and instilled calm into a moment of extreme crisis.&nbsp; Over the past 20 months, asset prices, and now consumer prices have soared.&nbsp; The problem now is that the Fed needs to figure out a way to undo what they have wrought.&nbsp; Quite frankly, there isn\u2019t a clear playbook for fighting inflation while protecting asset prices.&nbsp;&nbsp; We know that central bankers can do one or the other, but it not obvious that they can do both simultaneously and without incident.&nbsp; Yesterday traders declared their faith that Powell is unwilling to sacrifice investors for inflation-fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also appears that investors may have overlooked the circumstances surrounding Mr. Powell\u2019s testimony.&nbsp; President Biden recently re-nominated Powell to serve another term as Fed Chair.&nbsp; That job requires Senate confirmation, and this was one step toward a Senate nod.&nbsp; In other words, this was a job interview.&nbsp; It was an unusual one, not least because it was conducted publicly, but it was a job interview nonetheless.&nbsp; Wouldn\u2019t it be natural for a job seeker to respond to questions in a manner that he believes would satisfy those who control his path to employment?&nbsp; Thus wouldn\u2019t it be reasonable for the Chair to portray his economic outlook and personal abilities in a positive light?&nbsp; I\u2019m not implying that Mr. Powell was anything but truthful in his testimony, but I do believe that he was incentivized to put a positive spin on it.&nbsp; And markets liked that positive spin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next FOMC meeting is two weeks from today (January 26<sup>th<\/sup>).&nbsp;&nbsp; Between now and then we have a wide range of economic releases, but few that are as eagerly awaited as CPI, PCE or payrolls.&nbsp; At that time we will be in the midst of earnings season, meaning that corporate managements will offer their perceptions about how economic conditions are affecting their current performances and outlooks.&nbsp; Even so, we won\u2019t know whether the Fed Chair is Goldilocks, Sully, or something else entirely for quite some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[i] The year-over-year rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 7.0%, which matched the median estimate of economists.&nbsp; CPI ex-food and energy, aka \u201cthe core rate\u201d, rose 5.5% annually, only slightly above the 5.4% estimate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell worked his magic once again yesterday, but his testimony was part of a job interview.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446,314,570],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-118913","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"tag-fomc","16":"tag-inflation","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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