{"id":118686,"date":"2022-01-20T09:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-20T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=118686"},"modified":"2023-02-10T14:40:57","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T19:40:57","slug":"traders-insight-radio-ep-4-mr-sosnick-i-do-find-you-increasingly-useless","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/traders-insight-radio-ep-4-mr-sosnick-i-do-find-you-increasingly-useless\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr. Sosnick, I Do Find You Increasingly Useless"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In part two of this interview, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at IBKR speaks with Interactive Brokers Group&#8217;s founder Thomas Peterffy about the company&#8217;s past, crypto&#8217;s place in portfolios, and more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/traders-insight-radio-ep-3-you-mean-you-dont-have-to-know-anything-to-do-this\/\">Click here to listen to part one<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Mr. Sosnick, I Do Find You Increasingly Useless\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=m363t-11b63cf-pb&amp;from=pb6admin&amp;share=1&amp;download=1&amp;rtl=0&amp;fonts=Arial&amp;skin=1b1b1b&amp;font-color=ffffff&amp;btn-skin=c73a3a\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-transcript-traders-insight-radio-ep-4-mr-sosnick-i-do-find-you-increasingly-useless\">Transcript &#8211; Traders\u2019 Insight Radio Ep. 4: Mr. Sosnick, I Do Find You Increasingly Useless<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar.&nbsp; Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;I want to relate a story to the listeners.&nbsp;One of my colleagues who just retired after almost 20 years with the firm,&nbsp;is he&nbsp;had been working in Europe came back to Greenwich&nbsp;his first day back on&nbsp;the desk.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re trading something, and so&nbsp;that the people know, you used to sit just off the trading desk so literally you would\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll tell you the truth, I had a picture frame with a mirror in it so I could see when you\u2019d come up behind me.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;I think the statute of limitations is over &#8212;&nbsp;I can tell that story &#8212; but I had a picture with a&nbsp;large, mirrored&nbsp;frame so I could see when you were coming.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I don\u2019t know what happened that day. But he was petrified because something happened and your comments to me&nbsp;was&nbsp;Mr. Sosnick, you\u2019re becoming increasingly useless to me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now this is over 20 years ago.&nbsp;I don\u2019t remember what the incident was.&nbsp;It was clearly minor because I\u2019m still here, but you were known for having a bit of a temper in those days.&nbsp;Do you feel that you\u2019ve mellowed over time without changing your intensity to the business?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&nbsp;certainly mellowed,&nbsp;and&nbsp;my intensity in the business has diminished somewhat also, but not my enjoyment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-1\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Excellent. One thing that\u2019s gotten a lot of press recently was&nbsp;the story that you\u2019ve had&nbsp;a hands off embrace, let\u2019s say, with cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-1\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It was so misinterpreted.&nbsp;So&nbsp;when&nbsp;the Chicago Merc listed crypto&nbsp;futures&nbsp;I was lobbying for a high margin requirement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I was all in favor of listing crypto futures, but I said to them that look nobody knows what this crypto is worth it. At that time, they were training at $10 or $12,000 a Bitcoin, right?&nbsp;So&nbsp;I said look, it can go up or down in any amount. Basically it could drop to zero and go to $100,000&nbsp;only in&nbsp;one day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;if you\u2019re charging a $6000 margin requirement on the short\u2026many clearing firms on the on the Merc are not very well capitalized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;if&nbsp;they carry this, and they happen to be the [firms] who&nbsp;people with not much money go to trade with because they don\u2019t charge much margin and they charge very little brokerage\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Say the cryptocurrency would triple overnight.&nbsp;They would all go bust, and then well-funded&nbsp;clearing members like Interactive Brokers then have&nbsp;to pick up the pieces.&nbsp;So that\u2019s what I was worried about and that\u2019s why I said that low margin requirement could destabilize the entire financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result was that they somewhat increased the margin requirement.&nbsp;But I still feel that you know a very, very large jump in the price could be a big problem.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-2\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I think that\u2019s something that most people don\u2019t really grasp. It\u2019s the idea that clearing firms there\u2019s a mutual nature to them, and to a certain extent, the best managed firms are at the mercy of the worst managed firms in terms of thinking to kick in.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-2\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-3\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>But the other part of the story that got a lot of press was that you\u2019ve moved some of your money into crypto, and I know crypto resonates with people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-3\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s&nbsp;a small amount and but I think it\u2019s the prudent thing to&nbsp;do. I mean, if you happen to be wealthy like I am, I can&nbsp;afford to put enough money into crypto on which I can survive, everything else becomes worthless.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-4\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I guess that was where I was going to go.&nbsp;This is in a sense your disaster put as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-4\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right. I&nbsp;always I&nbsp;make sure that I survive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-5\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>OK, so&nbsp;just to put it back into option terms\u2026 this is this is in effect your out of the money put on fiat&nbsp;currency&nbsp;I guess, or an inflationary hedge rather than an investment thesis per se.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-5\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-6\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&nbsp;don\u2019t want to necessarily open this can of worms, but what do you think could put us into such a dire situation where that put comes into the money, so to speak?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-6\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, it\u2019s basically people losing faith in the currency.&nbsp;So&nbsp;the United States has always been the\u2026 not always, but say for the last 100 years or so, the strongest reserve currency all over the world.&nbsp;But we\u2019re beginning to have issues&nbsp;because&nbsp;the deficit is&nbsp;accumulating at a very, very rapid pace.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At&nbsp;this time when&nbsp;the deficit is $29.3 trillion, the&nbsp;debt is $29.3 trillion.&nbsp; And just yesterday I read that the Fed had put out $8.6 trillion or something like that in in&nbsp;their bond purchases. So that\u2019s all together.&nbsp;$38 trillion out there. It\u2019s an awful lot of money circulating, and it\u2019s given&nbsp;at the same time that&nbsp;we have supply issues.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a lot of money chasing a limited amount of goods, and that results in inflation.&nbsp;So now we have this situation where the Fed feels that they have to&nbsp;raise&nbsp;rates to&nbsp;slow&nbsp;the inflationary&nbsp;pressures.&nbsp;But as they raise rates on the debt, the debt service becomes more and more intolerable, and that just adds to the deficit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;the higher&nbsp;the rates, the higher the deficit becomes, and the higher the deficit becomes, the more the inflationary pressures prevail. So I don\u2019t see how we can get out&nbsp;of this. So the fact is that we&nbsp;have to&nbsp;get used to accumulating more and more and more debt every year and that will go with rising inflation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, I\u2019m not saying all the time, every year, but in most&nbsp;years,&nbsp;we will have substantial inflation and it will rise eventually to&nbsp;a level where it will hit double digits. And at one point people will begin to doubt the&nbsp;value of money, and at that time we\u2019ll have a big problem.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-7\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;a scenario that you\u2019ve described, it behooves you (A) to be a borrower because you\u2019re paying back your loans with deflated currency and, (B) to have real assets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-7\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, absolutely.&nbsp;So,&nbsp;when you see the value of money deteriorating, what do you buy?&nbsp;You can basically buy real&nbsp;estate,&nbsp;or you can buy stocks, or you can buy art. The Fed is saying, OK, we raise the rates to 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So Interactive Brokers currently lends at 1% at that time.&nbsp;If they raise it by up to 1%, we will end up at 2%. If inflation is still 5%, it pays everybody to borrow money from Interactive Brokers at 2% and put it into goods whose value is goes up by 5%, right?&nbsp;So&nbsp;I&nbsp;don\u2019t know how to stop this.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-8\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, one thing you didn\u2019t mention was gold, and we have started trading gold on behalf of customers.&nbsp;Do you feel that fits in with the thesis and it\u2019s just out of favor?&nbsp;Or do you feel it\u2019s been superseded by cryptocurrency in some way?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-8\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So&nbsp;I\u2019m&nbsp;stunned by the behavior of gold.&nbsp;I only have one explanation.&nbsp;That whenever&nbsp;people ask me about gold, I say OK, how much gold did you have in mind? And they say, well, maybe $1,000,000 worth. I say OK, so imagine yourself carrying $1,000,000 worth of gold. You can\u2019t do it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, so you know,&nbsp;as long as&nbsp;you have your gold somewhere in a&nbsp;vault that&nbsp;you trust that you can always get to.&nbsp;Gold is a very impractical store of value relative to digital assets, right?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-9\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The flip side being like in Kazakhstan where they shut down the internet and people couldn\u2019t get to their cryptocurrency, but that\u2019s probably less of a permanent scenario than a temporary one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-9\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, that\u2019s the point, right?&nbsp;So some gold coins are enough in your pocket.&nbsp;Just what you can carry is not a bad idea.&nbsp;And as a matter of fact, when I realized this whole issue with this permanent looking inflationary pressures about three years ago, I bought an equivalent amount of gold and Bitcoin.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-10\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, OK, so diversifying your disaster put as it were.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-10\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-11\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve been talking so much about, you know the past and the present \u2026 &nbsp;let\u2019s talk about trading for a moment, and here\u2019s a trading question.&nbsp;Would you rather catch a turning point or a trend?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-11\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think people can reliably catch turning points. I think that\u2019s impossible. Trends are easier, but of course it\u2019s a\u2026 how do you know when the trend turns, right?&nbsp;So since you can\u2019t catch the turning point you can\u2019t catch the trend turns.&nbsp;But the fact is that the look in a rising market or a falling market the next day is more likely to be like the previous day was.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s also, markets have serial runs.&nbsp;Trend followers have made a lot of money.&nbsp;And, uh, I do not know too many people who have consistently made money catching turns, although some chartists are very good.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-12\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>OK, so it goes back to the theory catch the trend but have a defined exit.&nbsp;Or be careful in case the trend turns against you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-12\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I\u2019ve never been very good as a trader.&nbsp;I\u2019ve been very good as a market maker only because I was always focusing on low transaction cost.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-13\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>What, if any, are your regrets?&nbsp;What do you regret over all these years in the business, either not doing or having done?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-13\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, I think that whatever we did we never did it early enough, and never did it fast enough, and never did it with as much conviction as we should have.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-14\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>OK.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-14\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I think we could have done everything we have done sooner and bigger.&nbsp;But I was half-chicken.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-15\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So I would say you\u2019re right that measuring it would be more of opportunity costs than actual costs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve been talking for a long time.&nbsp;We\u2019re probably going to end up splitting this into a couple of different podcasts.&nbsp;Is there anything else that you\u2019d really want people to know about you or the firm or just something we haven\u2019t touched on?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-15\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, what&nbsp;I would like people to know is that we have been unable to convey how hard we are working to make the Interactive Brokers platform really much, much better than anything out there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because you know competition is very intense.&nbsp;But often our customers say, \u201cHow is it possible that your platform is so much better?&nbsp;It has so many more tools and so many facilities and your executions are so much better.&nbsp; Why isn\u2019t everybody on your platform?\u201d &nbsp;And I just don\u2019t know what to say.&nbsp;That\u2019s that \u2026I don\u2019t know.&nbsp;I\u2019ve been trying to figure that out for the last 30 years and I don\u2019t know the answer. &nbsp;We are failing somewhere. We are failing to convey the benefit that we can extend to our customers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-16\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s tough.&nbsp;I mean, so much of it is perception. I do think some of it comes down to ease of use.&nbsp;I think there is a perception that because the platform is so encompassing it is therefore harder and that is a bit\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-16\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, ease of ease of use is a problem, but it\u2019s strangely enough I mean, the more capabilities you offer, the more confusing it becomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean I know my story with my own iPhone. There are so many things that I don\u2019t know how to do on the iPhone. And as they make it easier, it crops up for me when it when I don\u2019t want it to.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So there\u2019s all kinds of things I didn\u2019t want it to do.&nbsp;If somebody one day will figure out how to grow a platform\u2019s capabilities without making it more complicated to use, that will be the ultimate winner.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-17\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So a UI engineer somewhere who\u2019s listening to this please ring in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-17\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Really person help us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-18\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thomas, we\u2019ve been talking for about 45 minutes. I think we\u2019re going to wrap it up here. There\u2019s plenty of information I think the listeners will love.&nbsp;I obviously really appreciate you taking the time to help make this podcast a success and I want to just thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-18\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you very much and looking forward to future podcasts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"steve-19\"><strong>Steve<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Absolutely, as am I.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take care bye-bye.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"thomas-19\"><strong>Thomas&nbsp;<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Bye, thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In part two of this interview, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at IBKR speaks with Interactive Brokers Group&#8217;s founder Thomas Peterffy about the company&#8217;s past, crypto&#8217;s place in portfolios, and more!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":119253,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,10842,18,6,13857,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1633,2099,6596],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-118686","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-ibkr-podcasts","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-podcasts","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-cryptocurrency","17":"tag-interactive-brokers","18":"tag-thomas-peterffy","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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