{"id":113736,"date":"2021-12-01T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=113736"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:11","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:11","slug":"when-buy-the-dip-meets-the-start-of-a-new-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/when-buy-the-dip-meets-the-start-of-a-new-month\/","title":{"rendered":"When Buy the Dip Meets the Start of a New Month"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two common market ideas are meeting in force today.&nbsp; The first is \u201cbuy the dip\u201d, a concept that many traders have become increasingly dependent upon.&nbsp; The second is the idea that markets rally on the first trading day of a new month.&nbsp; Usually one of these factors is enough to boost markets \u2013 today we have both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those of us who grew up reading <em>The Traders\u2019 Almanac <\/em>are familiar with the first of the month idea.&nbsp; The rationale is based upon the idea that retirement accounts tend to receive money on the first of the month, more than on other days.&nbsp; Over my career I\u2019ve never been able to verify if that is indeed the case, but there is a potential logic to the assertion.&nbsp; But at this point, it doesn\u2019t need to be true to be tradeable.&nbsp; If enough traders believe that buying stocks on the first day of the month is a winning strategy then it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.&nbsp; And the results bear it out.&nbsp; I did a quick calculation this morning, and discovered the following: over the past 5 years, the average daily change in the S&amp;P 500 Index was 0.067%, while the average daily change for the first trading day of a the month was 0.228%.&nbsp; The strategy seems to make sense, at least superficially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And while we\u2019re on the topic of self-fulfilling strategies, buy-the-dip certainly deserves a mention.&nbsp; Over the years we\u2019ve discussed this topic at length.&nbsp; During the course of the raging bull market of 2020-21, investors have been richly rewarded for buying stocks when they have fallen.&nbsp; Quite frankly, with major indices and many popular stocks near all-time highs, it\u2019s generally worked, at least for the most part.&nbsp; Even as the prospects for monetary and fiscal stimuli fade, there are sufficient available funds to allow stocks to rebound and a sufficient number of traders who are conditioned to consider every market decline to be a buying opportunity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, buying the dip certainly does not work for all stocks at all times, as the following graph indicates.&nbsp; According to Bloomberg data, new lows on the NYSE have exceeded new highs by the widest margin in at least a year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-highs-minus-new-lows-nyse\"><strong>New Highs Minus New Lows, NYSE<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-1100x495.png\" alt=\"New Highs Minus New Lows, NYSE\" class=\"wp-image-113778 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-1100x495.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-700x315.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-768x346.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo-1536x692.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/HiLo.png 1914w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/495;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We can discuss the ramifications of new lows outpacing new highs even as SPX is just 1.2% below the all-time high set less than 2 weeks ago another time, but the point of the graph above is to show that not every dip in every stock is a buying opportunity.&nbsp; Traders who bought losers on a dip last week still saw many of them lose even more over the ensuing days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I write this, equity markets are very much in a risk-on mode, while bonds are cooperating with slightly lower yields.&nbsp; With a 4-day pattern of down-up-down-up, all we can say right now is that we are in the midst of a bout of volatility.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/so-much-for-a-quiet-half-day\/\">Last week we wrote<\/a> that \u201cAn unknown Covid strain would certainly be expected to add volatility to markets over the near term.\u201d&nbsp; Throw in an unexpected change in language from the Fed Chair regarding inflation, and there is much to digest.&nbsp; Volatility increases the number of opportunities available to traders, but those should be approached with a clear sense of risk and reward rather than reflexively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two common market ideas are meeting in force today.  The first is \u201cbuy the dip&#8221; and the second is the idea that markets rally on the first trading day of a new month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":58740,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3121,295],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-113736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-buy-the-dip","tag-yields","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When Buy the Dip Meets the Start of a New Month<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Two common market ideas are meeting in force today. 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