{"id":112894,"date":"2021-11-29T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-29T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=112894"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:49:40","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:49:40","slug":"after-3q21-eps-this-events-stock-remains-overvalued-by-86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/after-3q21-eps-this-events-stock-remains-overvalued-by-86\/","title":{"rendered":"After 3Q21 EPS, This Events Stock Remains Overvalued"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We\u2019re reiterating a Danger Zone pick that recently reported calendar 3Q21 earnings. After missing both top and bottom line estimates, this business has still not recovered from the COVID-19 pressures and looks increasingly unlikely to achieve the high revenue and profit growth implied by its stock price. Eventbrite (EB: $21\/share) is in the Danger Zone<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We leverage more reliable fundamental data<\/a>, as proven in The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>[1]<\/a> and shown to provide a <\/a>new source of alpha<\/a>, with qualitative research to highlight this firm whose stock presents poor risk\/reward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eventbrite Has Downside Risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We put Eventbrite in the Danger Zone in September 2018<\/a> right after its IPO. Since our original report, the stock has outperformed as a short vs. the S&P 500 by 97%. After more than tripling from its March 2020 lows, and now trading at its pre-pandemic levels, the stock carries as much risk as ever. Add in the fact that the recent Astroworld tragedy<\/a> will likely slow the return to pre-COVID \u201cnormalcy\u201d for events, and the stock looks even more expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Danger Zone Performance: From Original Report Through 11\/5\/21<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Danger<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s Working for the Business: <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Given the unprecedented economic shutdowns that largely remained in place across the globe in 3Q20, it\u2019s no surprise Eventbrite reported impressive year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth in 3Q21. Revenue jumped 144% YoY, which actually came in slightly below consensus estimates<\/a>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a non-GAAP basis<\/a>, Eventbrite\u2019s adjusted EBITDA<\/a> improved from $4 million in 3Q20 to $6 million in 3Q21. Investors should note Eventbrite\u2019s adjusted EBITDA removes real costs of doing business, such as stock-based compensation and \u201cother expense\u201d, and is a poor representation of the firm\u2019s true profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going forward, Eventbrite expects fourth quarter paid ticket volume and revenue \u201cwill be higher than third quarter levels.\u201d Consensus estimates for full year 2021 revenue growth is 75% YoY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s Not Working for the Business<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Below, we highlight some of the key challenges Eventbrite faces that make it unlikely to achieve the expectations baked into its stock price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock Price Recovered Faster Than the Business. <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investing in Eventbrite as a \u201creopening play\u201d ignores that the company has yet to return pre-pandemic levels across key metrics despite many economies reopening around the globe. Furthermore, the event industry is likely forever changed<\/a> by COVID-19, with so many events going permanently virtual for ease of access and cost savings. Meanwhile, Eventbrite\u2019s stock price has tripled from its March 2020 lows and trades near its pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite impressive YoY growth, Eventbrite\u2019s revenue over the trailing twelve months (TTM) remains 53% below 2019 revenue. Core Earnings<\/a>, at -$79 million over the TTM, are worse now than in 2019, when they were a company best -$59 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, Eventbrite was unprofitable, and losses were growing, before the pandemic. Now, a challenging post-pandemic event world (with differing local regulations and restrictions and lingering hesitancy from consumers) makes reversing its pre-pandemic downward trend in profits even more unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out this week\u2019s <\/em>Danger Zone interview<\/em><\/a> with Chuck Jaffe of <\/em>Money Life<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally published on <\/em>November 8, 2021<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

F<\/em><\/a>ollow us on <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a>, and <\/em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a> for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Our research utilizes our Core Earnings<\/a>, a more reliable<\/a> measure of profits, proven by professors at Harvard Business School & MIT Sloan and featured in The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/a> Includes cost of revenue, product development, sales, marketing, and support, and general and administrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to download a PDF of this report.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This New Constructs post highlights some of the key challenges Eventbrite faces that make it unlikely to achieve the expectations baked into its stock price.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":112895,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[10696],"contributors-categories":[13616],"class_list":["post-112894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-eventbrite","contributors-categories-new-constructs"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAfter 3Q21 EPS, This Events Stock Remains Overvalued<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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