{"id":112437,"date":"2021-11-23T00:37:44","date_gmt":"2021-11-23T05:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=112437"},"modified":"2023-02-24T10:04:40","modified_gmt":"2023-02-24T15:04:40","slug":"stock-market-will-the-last-one-out-please-remember-to-turn-off-the-lights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stock-market-will-the-last-one-out-please-remember-to-turn-off-the-lights\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market: Will The Last One Out Please Remember To Turn Off The Lights"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stocks \u2013 AMZN,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Macro \u2013 SPY, XLE, XLI, XLB, DXY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stocks started the day higher, but it didn\u2019t end well. The market initially jumped on the news that Jay Powell would get a second term as the Fed Chair. It was so widely applauded that quite literally everything went up. You know, like stocks, the fed funds futures, the dollar, the 2-year yield. The problem is that the stock market is not the sharpest tool in the shed, and while the entire market, except for stocks, realized Powell\u2019s renomination was hawkish, stocks had no clue what was happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see, the Fed Fund futures are now pricing in the first-rate hike by May. But how can that be? The Fed said it wasn\u2019t going finish tapering until the middle of the summer, and Powell made it clear that taper and increasing rates weren\u2019t one and the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/1-Fed-Fund-Futures-2-1100x585.png\" alt=\"Fed Fund Futures\" class=\"wp-image-112440 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, the dollar and yield curve had an excellent answer. Quite loudly they both said they now think the taper accelerates, so the taper will end sooner than expected. After all, Richard Clarida, the soon-to-be former Vice-Chair of the FOMC, alluded to that on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So wait, if the entire market, except for stocks, thinks that the taper will end sooner and rates are going to rise faster, how is that good for stocks? How is it good for stocks that the dollar is increasing as rates rise. Probably not so good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How is it good that the energy, materials, and industrials rallied to start the day with the dollar ripping higher and rising above resistance at 96.30, and now probably on its way to 97.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-USD-Index-4-1100x585.png\" alt=\"USD Index\" class=\"wp-image-112443 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After all those 3 sectors don\u2019t perform so well during the initial phases of when the dollar is strengthening, see the inverted dollar chart below and the years 2015\/2016 and 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-Industrial-Fund-INdex-2-1100x585.png\" alt=\"Industrial Fund Index\" class=\"wp-image-112446 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway, the S&amp;P 500 seemed to catch on late in the day about the potential problems it is now facing. You know, like a high valuation, slowing EPS growth, slowing global growth, a strengthening dollar, and tightening financial conditions. So the index dropped 80 bps in the final hour of trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-SP-500-Index-1100x585.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" class=\"wp-image-112447 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the MACD is rolling over, along with the advance\/decline line and the RSI, with the next stop around 4590.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"585\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index-1100x585.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index\" class=\"wp-image-112448 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index-1100x585.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index-700x372.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index-768x408.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-SP-500-Index.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-amazon-amzn\">Amazon (AMZN)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Amazon didn\u2019t fare so well today, oh well. It fell nearly 2.8%, maybe that\u2019s a double top forming. Maybe it is not. But companies that miss revenue estimates and then lower forward revenue guidance and note higher costs aren\u2019t supposed to rally to near all-time highs, so a move back to $3,300 could be quick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Amazon-5-1100x585.png\" alt=\"Amazon \" class=\"wp-image-112452 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/585;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t know what else to say, if the only things the bulls have to hang their hat on is seasonality and inflows, then I just ask that the last one out please remember to turn out the lights. The party is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on November 22, 2021&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/mottcapitalmanagement.com\/stock-market-will-the-last-one-out-please-remember-to-turn-off-the-lights\/\">Stock Market: Will The Last One Out Please Remember To Turn Off The Lights<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks started the day higher, but it didn\u2019t end well. The market initially jumped on the news that Jay Powell would get a second term as the Fed Chair.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":112448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[149,1779,262,1058,2223,2546],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":{"0":"post-112437","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-amzn","15":"tag-dxy","16":"tag-spy","17":"tag-xlb","18":"tag-xle","19":"tag-xli","20":"contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market: Will The Last One Out Please Remember To Turn Off The Lights<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stocks started the day higher, but it didn\u2019t end well. 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