{"id":111986,"date":"2021-11-19T09:10:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-19T14:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=111986"},"modified":"2023-02-24T10:28:31","modified_gmt":"2023-02-24T15:28:31","slug":"volatility-should-pick-up-following-tomorrows-options-expiration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/volatility-should-pick-up-following-tomorrows-options-expiration\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility Should Pick-Up Following Tomorrow\u2019s Options Expiration"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stocks \u2013 NVDA, DIS, AMZN, MOS<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Macro \u2013 SPY, IWM<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Look\u2019s really can be deceiving, with the S&amp;P 500 finishing up 34 basis points. The session wasn\u2019t strong, with decliners leading advancers, the S&amp;P 500 EW (RSP) finishing down 37 bps, and the Russell down almost 60 bps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The interesting thing about the Russell was how it closed right on support around 2,360. I don\u2019t like to talk about the Russell much anymore because of what has happened to it, due to stocks like AMC and Gamestop taking it over and names in the most shorted index running the show. But if the Russell cannot hold this break out, it would be a bad sign of things to come. Even more interesting is that the RSI is sitting right on the uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/1-Russell-2000-1100x560.png\" alt=\"Russell 2000\" class=\"wp-image-111987 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/560;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, we see the percentage of stock above their 50-day moving average breaking down and leading the way lower for the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Stocks-Above-50-Day-Average-1-1100x625.png\" alt=\"Stocks Above 50-Day Average\" class=\"wp-image-111989 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/625;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The actual S&amp;P 500 cash market closed right at 4,704, just close enough to the 4,700 strike price for tomorrow\u2019s options expiration on the opening. Once that expiration pass, this tight trading range we have witnessed since the beginning of November will cease to exist; gamma levels drop, the market will open, and volatility will return. It doesn\u2019t mean the market will go, nor up. It just means that the trading band will grow wider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nvidia-nvda\">Nvidia (NVDA)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nvidia broke higher today following its quarterly results last night. The stock wasn\u2019t able to pass the previous highs. The RSI is still negative, and the lower gap needs to be filled. I think $265 is still a reasonable place for the stock to settle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-Nvidia-5-1100x560.png\" alt=\"Nvidia\" class=\"wp-image-111995 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/560;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Disney (DIS)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disney looks like it may have completed filling the gap today at $154. I saw a lot of bullish options betting on this one yesterday, and like Nvidia, Disney has a gap to fill. I think the stock moving to $168 seems reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Disney-9-1100x560.png\" alt=\"Disney\" class=\"wp-image-112003 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/560;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mosaic (MOS)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mosaic was another stock with a ton of bullish activity at the start of the week. The stock is holding on to the uptrend. For now, a push higher to $43 seems reasonable as long as the uptrend holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"560\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5-1100x560.png\" alt=\"Mosaic\" class=\"wp-image-112009 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5-1100x560.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5-700x356.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5-768x391.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Mosaic-5.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/560;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Amazon (AMZN)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amazon was up today; I couldn\u2019t tell you why. The stock has been dead money now for over a year. I know people think a range-bound stock is a winner; it isn\u2019t. The stock has been up less than 5% since August of 2020. Could it break out and move to an all-time high, maybe. The company just guided down the fourth quarter out and told everyone their cost are rising; these should be a negative for the stock. It certainly would not work for me. Besides, at this point, it has filled the gap and now successfully retested the broken uptrend. I still believe this is a stock going lower, not higher; when it happens can\u2019t tell you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Mosaic-1100x560.png\" alt=\"Amazon\" class=\"wp-image-112010 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/560;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on November 18, 2021&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/mottcapitalmanagement.com\/volality-should-pick-up-following-tomorrows-options-expiration\/\">Volatility Should Pick-Up Following Tomorrow\u2019s Options Expiration<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Look\u2019s really can be deceiving, with the S&#038;P 500 finishing up 34 basis points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":112009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[149,1151,208,6363,1385,262],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":["post-111986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-amzn","tag-dis","tag-iwm","tag-mosaic","tag-nvda","tag-spy","contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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