{"id":111453,"date":"2021-11-16T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-16T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=111453"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:49:21","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:49:21","slug":"superior-service-and-exclusive-network-set-this-company-apart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/superior-service-and-exclusive-network-set-this-company-apart\/","title":{"rendered":"Superior Service and Exclusive Network Set This Company Apart"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This company\u2019s best-in-class customer service and extensive payment network insulate it from incumbents and disruptors. Discover Financial Services (DFS: $123\/share) remains a Long Idea<\/a> after 3Q21 earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We leverage more reliable fundamental data<\/a>, as proven in The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>[1]<\/a>, and shown to provide a new source of alpha<\/a>, with qualitative research to highlight this firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover Has More Room to Outperform<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We made Discover Financial Services a Long Idea in October 2019<\/a> and the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 by 5% since then. Despite its slight outperformance, we still see upside in the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Long Idea Performance: From Date of Publication Through 10\/26\/2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Long<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s Working: <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While coming in below expectations, Discover\u2019s revenue grew 2% year-over-year (YoY) in 3Q21. Importantly, after five consecutive quarters of YoY decline, Discover returned to growing its loan portfolio and total loans in 3Q21 were 1% higher than 3Q20. Furthermore, the company continues to attract new customers and new accounts are up 17% over 2019 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the pandemic, consumers<\/a> paid down outstanding credit balances with the help of government stimulus payments and fewer opportunities for discretionary spending, which improves the quality of Discover\u2019s loan portfolio. The company\u2019s net charge-off rate fell from 3% in 3Q20 to 1.5% in 3Q21. Discover\u2019s 30+ day delinquency rate fell 43 basis points YoY in 3Q21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover operates an extensive payments network across 200+ countries that is rivaled only by other major credit card companies Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and American Express (AXP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover increased its share of outstanding balances<\/a> from 7.6% in 2019 to 8.2% in 2020. The company\u2019s high-level customer service, as proven by its customer satisfaction<\/a> rankings, fosters strong customer relationships that create a competitive advantage. When coupled with Discover\u2019s payment network, the company has a large moat that enables it to take market share from incumbents while protecting its business from new decentralized finance (DeFi) entrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover\u2019s established network and deep customer relationships have also prevented perceived threats from buy now, pay later (BPNL) companies from materializing. Our recent report on Affirm Holdings<\/a> (AFRM) shows that BPNL companies don\u2019t replace credit cards, but rather just increase consumer debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover\u2019s integrated digital bank and payments model provides greater value than its direct peers as well. The company\u2019s trailing-twelve-months (TTM) return on invested capital (ROIC<\/a>) of 19% is well above card issuing peers\u2019 Capital One Financial (COP) and American Express (AXP) ROIC\u2019s of 8% and 9%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s Not Working: <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While card and organic student loans grew in 3Q21, Discover saw personal loan balances fall 4% YoY in 3Q21 as customers quickly paid down outstanding balances during the period. However, personal loans accounted for just 8% of the company\u2019s total loan balance in 3Q21, and the company believes its return to pre-pandemic underwriting practices for this segment will lead to future growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover felt the pressure of the low-interest rate environment in 3Q21, which caused yields on personal loans to fall quarter-over-quarter. However, the company\u2019s large credit card portfolio positions the company for consistent returns even if the current low-interest rate environment persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Credit cards traditionally have provided a convenient transaction method, which the proliferation of digital payment platforms and DeFi now challenges. Grand View Research<\/a> expects the digital payment market to grow 19% compounded annually from 2021 to 2028. However, Discover\u2019s extensive, secure network and credit facilities can be easily integrated within digital payment platforms. For example, Discover already leverages agreements with digital payment platforms such as PayPal<\/a>, which contributed to the company\u2019s strong 3Q21 sales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally published on <\/em>October 27, 2021.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a>, and <\/em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a> for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Our research utilizes our Core Earnings<\/a>, a more reliable measure of profits, as proven in Core Earnings: New Data & Evidence<\/a>, written by professors at Harvard Business School (HBS) & MIT Sloan and published in The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to download a PDF of this report<\/em>.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Discover Financial Services\u2019 best-in-class customer service and extensive payment network insulate it from incumbents and disruptors. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":348,"featured_media":111454,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[4982],"contributors-categories":[13616],"class_list":["post-111453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-discover-financial-services","contributors-categories-new-constructs"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSuperior Service and Exclusive Network Set This Company Apart<\/title>\n<meta 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