{"id":111315,"date":"2021-11-15T12:32:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-15T17:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=111315"},"modified":"2022-11-22T15:42:43","modified_gmt":"2022-11-22T20:42:43","slug":"are-you-a-quitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/are-you-a-quitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Are You A Quitter?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Everyone is quitting their jobs. In September, 4.4 million Americans \u2013 3 percent of all employed workers in the nation \u2013 quit their jobs according to the latest data from the Labor Department survey. After a record August, this was another 164,000 more people calling it quits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-going-on\">What\u2019s going on?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rate of \u201cquitting\u201d is a barometer of workers\u2019 ability or willingness to leave jobs. The higher the number, the greater the implied confidence people have in their ability to find other jobs.<br>&nbsp;<br>Some of it, to be sure, can be explained through government largesse. If you\u2019re getting paid more to not work in a job you hate, the rational thing is to stay at home. However, those hefty aid checks and government assistance have largely run their course.<br>&nbsp;<br>Job hunters have plenty of breathing room to be picky about who they work for. The number of job openings (positions to be filled) in September clocked in at 10.4 million. By comparison, the pre-pandemic high stood at just over 7 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why should I (or the Fed) care?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed is currently going all in on the transitory nature of the CPI spike observed in the latest data. The disrupted supply chain has struggled to come back to its pre-pandemic efficiency, resulting in rising prices of goods that have been difficult to get. This is hardly surprising. Anyone that stayed awake through the introductory course in economics will have remembered this basic mechanism to balance supply and demand.<br>&nbsp;<br>Normalization of the supply chain, therefore, should bring inflation back to the boring sub-2% levels the Fed is banking on.<br>&nbsp;<br>Except, that is, if wage inflation starts to pick up. One baffling fact is that, while job openings are staggeringly high, the US labour market is still 4.2 million jobs short of where it stood in February 2020. This suggests that employers are fighting over a much smaller pool of willing workers than were available before the pandemic. Like with goods, supply and demand in the labor market is starting to get balanced with higher wages.<br>&nbsp;<br>Unlike goods prices, however, wages are downwardly sticky. When labor is more widely available, workers do not \u201cgo on sale.&#8221; Wages generally stay the same or continue to rise at a similar rate. This could give inflation the kind of momentum that the Fed doesn\u2019t wish to see.<br>&nbsp;<br>A nervous Fed means higher short term rates, and stock market anxiety over just how long the \u201cinflation is transitory\u201d line will hold up against the rising tide of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Spotlight:<\/strong> HGV: NYSE<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the holidays around the corner, street analysts are by-and-large bearish on Hilton Grand Vacations and in the past this has&nbsp;led to a 31% increase in the price over the following 6M.<br>&nbsp;<br>TOGGLE analyzed 5 similar occasions in the past to produce the median outlook and this insight received 5 out of 8 stars in our quality assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"596\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-1100x596.png\" alt=\"Hilton Grand Vacations \" class=\"wp-image-111316 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-1100x596.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-700x379.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-768x416.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history-1536x832.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/HILTON-GRAND-VACATIONS-history.png 1604w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/596;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: TOGGLE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Everyone is quitting their jobs. In September, 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs according to the latest data from the Labor Department survey. After a record August, this was another 164,000 more people calling it quits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":111316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[674,6839],"contributors-categories":[13768],"class_list":["post-111315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-employment","tag-hilton","contributors-categories-toggle-ai"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are You A Quitter? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Everyone is quitting their jobs. In September, 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs according to the latest data from the Labor Department survey.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111315\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are You A Quitter? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Everyone is quitting their jobs. 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