{"id":110993,"date":"2021-11-11T11:17:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T16:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=110993"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:49:14","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:49:14","slug":"weibos-wicked-results-as-real-estate-policy-adjusts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/weibos-wicked-results-as-real-estate-policy-adjusts\/","title":{"rendered":"Weibo\u2019s Wicked Results as Real Estate Policy Adjusts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weibo (WB US), the Twitter of China, released Q3 financial results before the US market open this morning. The results beat analyst estimates handily. After Tencent\u2019s weak advertising results yesterday, Weibo\u2019s results are a bit of a shock. Hat tip to management on navigating the macro headwinds. It\u2019s interesting to note that the company mentioned the Beijing Winter Olympics as a strong opportunity for the company. Analysts had many regulation-related questions, as the company repeatedly stated \u201cwe have had a very good communication and relationship with the government even before the implementation of any regulation\u201d.&nbsp;The company noted that the Personal Information Protection Law went into effect on November 1<sup>st<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Revenue increased +30% to $607.4mm versus analyst estimates of $593mm and Q3 2020\u2019s $465.7mm<\/li><li>Revenue segmentation: advertising\/marketing +29% to $537.6mm<\/li><li>Average daily users reached 248mm in September, monthly active users reached 573mm in September<\/li><li>Costs\/Expenses increased +29% to $394.4mm from $304.8mm driven by \u201chigher personnel-related cost and marketing expense.\u201d<\/li><li>Adjusted Net Income $209.6mm versus analyst estimate of $189mm<\/li><li>Adjusted EPS $0.90 versus estimate of $0.83<\/li><li>Corporate cash is $2.71B<\/li><li>Q4 Revenue outlook increase between 15% to 20%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-news\">Key News<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asian equities had a mixed day as Japan, Hong Kong, and China outperformed while Taiwan and India underperformed. Today\u2019s price action is brutal for active emerging market managers who are 10% underweight China, weighted by the size of active EM funds, while overweight India and Taiwan. This underweight is the dry powder that can come back into the stocks. What these managers want to see are indications that China\u2019s regulatory crackdown is coming to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Tencent\u2019s Q3 earnings call yesterday, President Marin Lau stated \u201c\u2026.if there has been already a lot of regulations and the regulations in the future on an incremental basis will be smaller in terms of percentage-wise, and as the industry adapted further, then the impact on the industry will be less and less over time.\u201d Good sign right!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There were several catalysts to today\u2019s China and Hong Kong moves as the US and China unexpectedly agreed to work on methane and environmental issues at COP26 in advance of the Biden-Xi virtual summit next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was chatter that Didi could be coming out of its regulatory review and reports that real estate policies will be eased to support the industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">October mortgage loans increased 4% while Evergrande made three bond coupon payments at the 11th hour. Evergrande\u2019s April 2022 US $ bond fell -3.7% to $28.10 while the June 2025 bond was off -2.67% to $23.92. The WSJ is reporting today that the company will be dismantled while allowing the company to finish the projects it started. The article states foreign-held bonds aren\u2019t a concern which runs contrary to official statements that foreign bondholders should be treated no different than domestic bondholders. I\u2019m generally in agreement with the article as we\u2019ve been saying this line of thinking for weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Real estate was the best performing sector in both China +7.87% and Hong Kong +5.19% on the news. Hong Kong-listed internet stocks ripped on the Didi news with Meituan +1.8%, Alibaba HK +1.24%, Kuaishou +6.92%, and JD.com HK +1.75% though Tencent was off -1.24% as Mainland investors were net sellers in moderate size via Southbound Stock Connect. Hong Kong volumes were flat which is only 80% of the 1-year average. The Mainland volumes were up +3.94% which is 112% of the 1-year average. Foreign investors bought $1.347B of Mainland stocks today as Northbound Stock trading accounted for 4.9% of Mainland turnover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today is Alibaba\u2019s Singles Day. Amazing how quiet things have been surrounding the largest e-commerce event globally. The company is clearly keeping a low profile this year though the sales numbers will be interesting to find out. The company did state 290,000 brands will have goods sold ranging from high fashion brands to electronics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the close, we get MSCI\u2019s Pro-forma for the end-of-month Semi-Annual Index Review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BNP Paribas upgraded China equity in their Asia allocation model moving the country to overweight from neutral. The December Central Economic Work Conference was noted as a potential policy catalyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Xiaohongshu, which is like Instagram, reportedly raised cash from investors in anticipation of a Hong Kong listing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"876\" height=\"778\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48.png\" alt=\"MSCI China all shares index\" class=\"wp-image-110994 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48.png 876w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48-700x622.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48-300x266.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48-768x682.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 876px) 100vw, 876px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 876px; aspect-ratio: 876\/778;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"825\" height=\"592\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-49.png\" alt=\"asia index 1 day change percentage\" class=\"wp-image-110995 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-49.png 825w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-49-700x502.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-49-300x215.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-49-768x551.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 825px) 100vw, 825px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 825px; aspect-ratio: 825\/592;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"824\" height=\"385\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-50.png\" alt=\"asian stocks 1 day change percentage\" class=\"wp-image-110996 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-50.png 824w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-50-700x327.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-50-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-50-768x359.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 824px) 100vw, 824px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 824px; aspect-ratio: 824\/385;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"839\" height=\"389\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-51.png\" alt=\"most heavily traded in hong kong h shares\" class=\"wp-image-110997 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-51.png 839w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-51-700x325.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-51-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-51-768x356.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 839px) 100vw, 839px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 839px; aspect-ratio: 839\/389;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"384\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-52.png\" alt=\"most heavily traded in shanghai and shenzhen a shares\" class=\"wp-image-110998 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-52.png 853w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-52-700x315.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-52-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-52-768x346.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 853px; aspect-ratio: 853\/384;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Last Night\u2019s Exchange Rates, Prices, &amp; Yields<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>CNY\/USD 6.40 versus 6.40 yesterday<\/li><li>CNY\/EUR 7.33 versus 7.39 yesterday<\/li><li>Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 2.94% versus 2.89% yesterday<\/li><li>Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 3.20% versus 3.17% yesterday<\/li><li>Copper Price +0.09% overnight<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on November 11, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/chinalastnight.com\/2021\/11\/11\/weibos-wicked-results-as-real-estate-policy-adjusts\/\">Weibo\u2019s Wicked Results as Real Estate Policy Adjusts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Author Positions as of 11\/11\/21 are KBA, KALL, KCNY, KFYP, KCNY, KEMQ, BZUN, HSBC, KWEB, KHYB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weibo (WB US), the Twitter of China, released Q3 financial results before the US market open this morning. The results beat analyst estimates handily. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,21,5924,15,16,17,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[193,1220,191,10366,4300,186,10628],"contributors-categories":[13610],"class_list":["post-110993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-asia","category-commodities","category-esg","category-fixed-income","category-forex","category-futures","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-cny","tag-copper","tag-eur","tag-evergrande","tag-tencent","tag-usd","tag-weibo","contributors-categories-kraneshares"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weibo\u2019s Wicked Results as Real Estate Policy Adjusts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Weibo (WB US), the Twitter of China, released Q3 financial results before the US market open this morning. The results beat analyst estimates handily.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/110993\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weibo\u2019s Wicked Results as Real Estate Policy Adjusts | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Weibo (WB US), the Twitter of China, released Q3 financial results before the US market open this morning. The results beat analyst estimates handily.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/weibos-wicked-results-as-real-estate-policy-adjusts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-11T16:17:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T14:49:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-48.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brendan Ahern\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brendan Ahern\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script 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