{"id":110963,"date":"2021-11-11T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=110963"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:49:14","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:49:14","slug":"1-trillion-of-speculation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/1-trillion-of-speculation\/","title":{"rendered":"$1 Trillion of Speculation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tesla\u2019s (TSLA: $1,200\/share) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might not even happen<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla\u2019s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This report provides objective perspective on how outrageously high the valuation of Tesla stock is and the clear impracticality of the company meeting the expectations baked into its valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tesla\u2019s Valuation vs. Competitors Makes No Sense<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tesla\u2019s market cap is now greater than the next 10 largest (ranked by market cap) auto manufacturers combined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Tesla\u2019s Market Cap Vs. Competitors<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Tesla\u2019s<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This valuation comes despite Tesla selling less than 1\/50th<\/sup> of the vehicles than the combined total sold by the next 10 largest automakers over the trailing twelve months ended the first half of 2021. See Figure 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We cannot conceive of a straight-faced argument for the disconnect between Tesla\u2019s valuation and its vehicle sales compared to its competitors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally published on <\/em>November 2, 2021<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on<\/em> <\/em><\/a>Twitter<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a>, and <\/em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a> for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Assuming sales equal to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/a> Calculated as 70% of Fiat Chrysler and Groupe PSA\u2019s 2019 European vehicle sales and 40% of Fiat Chrysler and Groupe PSA\u2019s 2019 North American vehicle sales. Stellantis was formed as a merger between the two in early 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to download a PDF of this report<\/em>.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tesla\u2019s market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz , which might not even happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":110967,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1704,161],"contributors-categories":[13616],"class_list":{"0":"post-110963","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-cap","14":"tag-tesla","15":"contributors-categories-new-constructs"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n$1 Trillion 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