{"id":110607,"date":"2021-11-09T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-09T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=110607"},"modified":"2023-03-01T12:30:17","modified_gmt":"2023-03-01T17:30:17","slug":"emerging-markets-now-fertile-ground-for-innovation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/emerging-markets-now-fertile-ground-for-innovation\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging Markets Now Fertile Ground for Innovation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">By: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.janushenderson.com\/en-us\/advisor\/bio\/daniel-j-grana-cfa\/\">Daniel J. Gra\u00f1a, CFA<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.janushenderson.com\/en-us\/advisor\/bio\/matthew-culley\/\">Matthew Culley<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Matt Culley explains how emerging markets have seized upon the digital revolution to modernize their economies and create innovative business models to address local business needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Long fueled by the drivers of \u201cconvergence\u201d and \u201coutsourcing,\u201d we believe emerging markets will increasingly rely upon value-added innovation for economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A young talent pool is leveraging technological advancements to provide solutions to unique, local business frictions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Innovative EM companies stand to become global leaders as they tap their large domestic markets and adapt their businesses to other regions, including developed economies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Emerging markets (EM), in our view, remain one of the more compelling themes in equities investing, but perhaps for reasons not fully appreciated by investors. At present, EMs as gauged by leading benchmarks encapsulate 26 countries and more than half the world\u2019s population.&nbsp; We think the size and growth rates of these regions alone should merit investors\u2019 attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite these countries\u2019 diverse social, economic and political structures, over the years there has been surprising similarity in the underlying themes and opportunities for EM equities investment. Consistent with their \u201cemerging\u201d status, there have historically been two primary reasons for gaining equity exposure to EMs: outsourcing and convergence. With respect to the former, EMs have been a major beneficiary of the drive toward globalization as developed markets look for lower-cost ways to unearth and refine raw materials, manufacture products and provide services. As incomes in EMs rise, so too does the demand for cars, smartphones, life insurance and other middle-class outlays that drive convergence toward developed market penetration rates. These two factors have been the principal forces behind the impressive performance of several EM commodities, manufacturing and outsourced services stocks over the past two decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-and-now-there-are-three\"><strong>And Now There are Three<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While outsourcing and convergence remain core pillars of the EM opportunity set, we have begun to see the emergence of innovation as a third investable EM meta-theme. The last decade has witnessed innovative EM companies such as Alibaba and Tencent growing to become some of the largest companies in the world. We expect other companies to follow suit and believe that we are at the precipice of a broadening of EM-originated innovation that has the potential to reshape the social and economic order for the majority, and perhaps all, of the world\u2019s population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The global economy is entering an unprecedented time for innovation. The so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution is enabling the homogenization of the physical, digital and biological world. Importantly, these advancements are no longer the exclusive domain of developed markets. Instead, these global forces are coalescing to drive innovation in EMs as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The undercurrents that aided the outsourcing and convergence stories of the past decades \u2013 combined with consumer technology proliferation and Internet penetration \u2013 have set the stage for a profound change in how and where innovation happens. We are not alone in recognizing that demographics strongly favor EMs, given their materially younger populations and a shift in consumption toward the rapidly expanding generation of middle-class, digitally native consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exhibit 1: Global Internet users by Region<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asia leads the word in Internet users, many of whom are younger, digitally native consumers who rely upon connectivity for many aspects of their professional and social lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"674\" height=\"307\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-36.png\" alt=\"Global Internet users by Region\" class=\"wp-image-110608 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-36.png 674w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-36-300x137.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 674px) 100vw, 674px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 674px; aspect-ratio: 674\/307;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Emerging countries are educating students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics at a faster pace than any other region. These graduates are entering the workforce with the sum of nearly all information known to mankind at their fingertips. In contrast to years past, they are increasingly looking away from Western markets and toward home, seeing the combination of opportunity and resources available to build viable businesses that tackle local market challenges. This has led to scaled pools of talent, experienced entrepreneurs and abundant venture capital to form the backdrop for sustained innovation for decades to come. Artificial intelligence (AI), Big Data, 5G, blockchain, nanotechnology, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT) and quantum computing represent some of the enabling technologies supporting the&nbsp;transformation of human lives and enterprises that we are beginning to see originate out of the emerging world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exhibit 2: University Enrollment in STEM Curricula<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Major Asian emerging markets are training students in science, technology, engineering and math curricula at a higher rate than other regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"662\" height=\"265\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-37.png\" alt=\"University Enrollment in STEM Curricula\" class=\"wp-image-110609 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-37.png 662w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-37-300x120.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 662px; aspect-ratio: 662\/265;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Springboard for Productivity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We were struck by a recent conversation with a South Korean entrepreneur who noted that true innovation breaks trade-offs by eliminating the higher friction and stacked economics common of legacy market structures in EMs. Regulatory and business formation constructs over time developed to favor incumbents and stifled the competitiveness of small- and medium-size businesses. Technological advancement has the potential to shatter this unproductive paradigm. What has become so salient in EMs is that these innovations are driving inclusion \u2013 one of the most powerful forces in unlocking demand globally and an essential ingredient for economic growth. By broadening access and enabling participation by EM populations that are under- or unserved by existing institutional structures, innovation is adding benefits that are inherently different and complementary to the convergence and outsourcing stories of past decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Entrepreneurial fintech businesses are bringing an unbanked population into the financial system with the potential to elevate millions out of poverty. The application of blockchain technology across supply chains is enabling access to credit to an enormous group of underserved small businesses and could help alleviate failure rates that are much higher than in developed markets. Importantly, the shifting landscape for innovation is similarly enabling a positive environmental impact. Rather than balancing the inherent trade-off between economic growth and environmental harm, many innovators have made sustainability a positive input to their business model, rather than a negative output to be managed. This flips traditional environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing on its head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Local Solutions to Local Challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many business models prevalent in EMs have been imported from developed markets where they were forced to overcome intense competition to create differentiation by solving local market frictions. With the greater ease in which technology is diffused globally, an increasing number of businesses are finding their way into EMs \u2013 with varying degrees of success. Emerging markets have a long history of leapfrogging legacy technology generations, such as mobile networking superseding traditional wireline communication. But in many cases, we are presently seeing a complete bypass of traditional development, which is resulting in innovation scaling faster. Food delivery has grown at a dramatically rapid pace in China and penetration now stands far in excess of developed markets. In India, where restaurant penetration remains but a fraction of the Western world, with limited selection, we are seeing a strong adoption of cloud kitchens alongside the expansion of the major food delivery platforms. This has the dual benefits of increasing supply and selection for underserved consumers and also enabling enormous job growth in what has historically been a difficult industry for small business owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Latin America, Brazilian logistics have long been underdeveloped, resulting in elongated and costly supply chains dominated by the state-run postal service and fragmented middlemen. Today, we are seeing the emergence of multiple digitally enabled logistics companies that are providing on-demand, intra-city services. Digital freight matching platforms are also on the rise. These companies pair shippers and truckers to significantly increase the efficiency and speed for the shipper and provide higher wages for drivers, all while circumventing the need to build the traditional multi-modal supply chain conglomerates prevalent in the U.S. and other developed markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exhibit 3: Food Delivery Service Users as a Share of Internet users by Region<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The proliferation of food delivery in China vis-\u00e0-vis developed markets illustrates how seamlessly many of the country\u2019s citizens have adapted to the digital economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"641\" height=\"271\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-38.png\" alt=\"Food Delivery Service Users as a Share of Internet users by Region\" class=\"wp-image-110610 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-38.png 641w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-38-300x127.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 641px) 100vw, 641px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 641px; aspect-ratio: 641\/271;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Health Care Joins the Fray<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As emerging markets compound their demographic advantages in education, we are seeing an explosion of new and innovative companies across the health care ecosystem. Increasingly, even Western-educated EM citizens are returning home to establish startups. Rather than joining well-known global leaders, or developing outsourced generic drug manufacturing facilities, true innovation is happening domestically. We recently spent time with the founder of a colorectal cancer screening company who has developed a patented technology to provide world-leading accuracy at costs that are a fraction of those currently available in developed markets. While initially providing benefits for an at-risk population of 700 million in its home market, there are enormous opportunities to provide this technology on a global basis. With the lack of sufficient access to health care infrastructure across many countries, we are increasingly seeing unique business models emerging to utilize technology to address these gaps. By integrating telemedicine, e-pharmacy, digital recordkeeping, educational content and AI-assisted decision making for providers, EM innovators are creating scalable solutions that create not only powerful business models, but more importantly, drive inclusion of the underserved into the health care ecosystem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exhibit 4: Annual New Drug Approvals in China<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chinese regulators have accelerated drug approvals with the objective of improving the health outcomes and quality of life of the country\u2019s citizens, an aim that aligns with government policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"303\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-39.png\" alt=\"Exhibit 4: Annual New Drug Approvals in China\" class=\"wp-image-110611 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-39.png 650w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-39-300x140.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 650px; aspect-ratio: 650\/303;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Going Global<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps most exciting is the opportunity for many of these businesses to scale beyond local-to-local innovations and into local-to-global solutions providers. Many of the complex issues EM innovators have solved for can be applied back to developed markets to improve existing solutions that didn\u2019t require breaking trade-offs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We recently met with an emerging market software company that provides solutions to global multinationals seeking to grow their e-commerce operations in EMs. These global enterprises needed a solution that integrates multiple fragmented logistics providers, horizontal e-commerce marketplaces, brick-and-mortar stores, local banks, payment schemes, currencies and many other ecosystem partners in a flexible, cloud-based solution. By providing this service across Latin America, this company has become recognized as a global leader by market intelligence firms and is increasingly expanding along with its customers into developed markets by displacing legacy models. This is just one of many differentiated companies that are beginning to arise across EMs that will have global implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We expect EM innovators to reshape the global equities investing landscape.&nbsp; Benefiting from deep local markets, improving scale of engineering and executive talent, we expect many more EM-domiciled companies to break into the ranks of both the largest (and most important) companies in the world over the coming decade. Successful identification and partnership with these companies has the potential to allow for substantial compounding of capital over long time periods. While these preconditions for a wave of EM-oriented innovation are coalescing today, the underlying drivers are durable, suggestive that this dynamic will likely become the new norm, and in the process, likely help many EM countries circumvent the middle-income trap that has previously hampered early waves of development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on November 5, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.janushenderson.com\/\">Emerging Markets Now Fertile Ground for Innovation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Foreign securities are subject to additional risks including currency fluctuations, political and economic uncertainty, increased volatility, lower liquidity and differing financial and information reporting standards, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Emerging market investments have historically been subject to significant gains and\/or losses. As such, returns may be subject to volatility.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technology industries can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants, and general economic conditions. A concentrated investment in a single industry could be more volatile than the performance of less concentrated investments and the market as a whole.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The health care industries are subject to government regulation and reimbursement rates, as well as government approval of products and services, which could have a significant effect on price and availability, and can be significantly affected by rapid obsolescence and patent expirations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) or sustainable investing considers factors beyond traditional financial analysis. This may limit available investments and cause performance and exposures to differ from, and potentially be more concentrated in certain areas than, the broader market.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This post explains how emerging markets have seized upon the digital revolution to modernize their economies and create innovative business models to address local business needs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":110608,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,5,18,6,8,9,1031,26,3],"tags":[449,154,1007],"contributors-categories":[13609],"class_list":["post-110607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-europe-middle-east-africa","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-south-america","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-emerging-markets","tag-growth","tag-innovation","contributors-categories-janus-henderson"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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