{"id":110577,"date":"2021-11-09T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-09T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=110577"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:49:09","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:49:09","slug":"october-flash-flows-risk-on-into-the-final-countdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/etfs\/october-flash-flows-risk-on-into-the-final-countdown\/","title":{"rendered":"October Flash Flows: Risk-on Into the Final Countdown"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>With equities posting their best returns since November 2020, equity ETFs took in $60 billion and outpaced bond ETFs by $43 billion last month \u2014 raising the three-month difference figure to almost $100 billion.<\/li><li>With another $6 billion, and led by cyclicals, sector ETFs cemented a new record of 13 months in a row with inflows.<\/li><li>Bond ETFs took in a respectable $17 billion, but were driven by a record-setting $6 billion of inflows into TIPS and almost $3 billion of flows into below-investment-grade credit.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Led by US equities, global stocks posted their best return (+5.0%) since November 2020. The S&amp;P 500 rebounded out of the gate, registering multiple new all-time highs during the month to send the full-year figure to 59 new highs \u2014 the third-highest amount in any calendar year in the past 20 years (behind 2017 and 1995).<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These gains have come at the expense of sagging bond returns. Global core bonds are poised to register one of their worst returns (-4.3%) in nearly 20 years \u2014 diversification on display, perhaps. Yet, given the strength in stocks, the 60\/40 portfolio has still returned 8%, a level that is more than the prior 30-year historical average (+6.7%)<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2014 not bad for a strategy that is supposed to be dead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the year is not over yet. With two months left, we are in the final countdown to how this period could\/will be remembered. Right now, investors continue to remain optimistic, evidenced by significant allocations to risk assets for the first 10 months of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-stocks-for-the-long-run\"><strong>Stocks for the Long Run<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>ETFs continue to break records, taking in $82 billion in October. This is their 12th month in a row with more than $40 billion of inflows \u2014 a streak that began in November of 2020 when clarity on the vaccine timeline kickstarted this current phase of the rally and risk-on buying behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These strong flows were once again led by equities. Equity ETFs took in $60 billion last month, their fifth-most ever, propelling full-year totals to a record $539 billion \u2014 a figure where, if no other asset class had inflows on the year, would be a record for ETFs in and of itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not only does the absolute size of the flows into equity ETFs paint a bullish risk-on positioning picture, but the relative flows do as well. In October, equity funds took in $40 billion more than fixed income ETFs \u2014 their 12th month in a row of doing so. These flows have now pushed the trailing three-month stock-to-bond flow difference figure to nearly $100 billion and above the 80th percentile, as shown below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Percent of Funds with Inflows Per Month<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"645\" height=\"382\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-34.png\" alt=\"Percent of Funds with Inflows Per Month\" class=\"wp-image-110578 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-34.png 645w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-34-300x178.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 645px; aspect-ratio: 645\/382;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/etfs\/insights\/risk-on-into-the-final-countdown\">Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup>FactSet, as of October 31, 2021.<br><sup>2<\/sup>Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of October 31, 2021, based on annually rebalanced exposure of 60% MSCI ACWI Index and 40% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Glossary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index<\/strong><br>A broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, global fixed-rate taxable bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>MSCI ACWI Index<\/strong><br>A market-capitalization-weighted stock market index that measures the stock performance of the companies in developed and emerging markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index<\/strong><br>A market-capitalization-weighted stock market index that measures the stock performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on November 3, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/etfs\/insights\/risk-on-into-the-final-countdown\">October Flash Flows: Risk-on Into the Final Countdown<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The views expressed in this material are the views of the SPDR Research and Strategy team and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any security. It does not take into account any investor\u2019s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy of such information, nor liability for decisions based on such information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise noted, all data and statistical information were obtained from Bloomberg LP and SSGA as of October 31, 2021. Data in tables have been rounded to whole numbers, except for percentages, which have been rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The research and analysis included in this document have been produced by SSGA for its own investment management activities and are made available here incidentally. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable and is as of the date of publication but is subject to change. This information must not be used in any jurisdiction where prohibited by law and must not be used in a way that would be contrary to local law or legislation. No investment advice, tax advice, or legal advice is provided herein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, but contain interest rate risk (as interest rates raise, bond prices usually fall); issuer default risk; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk. These effects are usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Equity securities may fluctuate in value in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Concentrated investments in a particular sector or industry tend to be more volatile than the overall market and increases risk that events negatively affecting such sectors or industries could reduce returns, potentially causing the value of the Fund\u2019s shares to decrease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA\u2019s express written consent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ETFs continue to break records, taking in $82 billion in October. This is their 12th month in a row with more than $40 billion of inflows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121,"featured_media":110578,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1962],"contributors-categories":[13643],"class_list":{"0":"post-110577","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fund-flows","16":"contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>October Flash Flows: Risk-on Into the Final Countdown<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"ETFs continue to break records, taking in $82 billion in October. 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