{"id":110162,"date":"2021-11-05T12:16:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-05T16:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=110162"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:17","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:17","slug":"oh-happy-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/oh-happy-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Oh Happy Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Another day, another rally.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/did-adp-give-a-clue-for-non-farm-payrolls-does-it-matter\/\">In yesterday\u2019s piece, we anticipated a positive spin<\/a> on today\u2019s payrolls report as long as the number was with reason, writing \u201cIn light of the recent market melt-up, is there much doubt that unless the report is a true outlier like a negative number or over a million, that traders will interpret the result in a bullish light, no matter what?\u201d&nbsp; With an addition of 531,000 non-farm payrolls when 450,000 were expected, the number was sufficient to continue the uptrends that appear firmly in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not going to give myself much credit for such an obvious call.&nbsp; Besides, there was a major piece of positive news that was already working its way through the market psyche.&nbsp; A new pill from Pfizer (PFE) that appears to sharply reduce the likelihood of Covid-related hospitalizations is one more possible signal that we can put the virus behind us.&nbsp; This is on top of similar news from Merck (MRK) that was released on October 11<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; It is probably not a coincidence that the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) bottomed 2 days later and began an almost interrupted move higher since then.&nbsp; That may also be why the move today, while substantial (SPX and NDX ~+0.75%, Russell 2000 (RTY) +1.75%), is not even larger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s payrolls report was not exactly a Goldilocks number.&nbsp; That would imply \u201cnot too hot, not too cold\u201d.&nbsp; There was nothing cold about today\u2019s statistics.&nbsp; Besides a headline beat of 81,000, we saw a positive revision to last month\u2019s number of another 118,000.&nbsp; All of a sudden, last month\u2019s miss doesn\u2019t seem so bad, and we ended up with a total beat of 199,000 today.&nbsp; Let\u2019s call it 200k for simplicity\u2019s sake.&nbsp; The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% vs, last month\u2019s 4.8% and an expected 4.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, as expected.&nbsp; Taken in combination, this is a very solid improvement in the labor picture, but not enough to spur the Federal Reserve into more immediate action.&nbsp; Anything that keeps Papa Bear away from Goldilocks is a market-friendly number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead to next week, the major releases are the Producer and Consumer Price Indices (PPI, CPI) on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.&nbsp; Market expectations are so high that once again it would take truly astounding numbers to shake the market\u2019s good mood.&nbsp; The market expects rises of 0.6% and 0.5% for the respective headline numbers and rises of 0.5% and 0.4% for the cores.&nbsp; With the word \u201ctransitory\u201d still in the picture, anything other than substantial rises in the ex-food and energy numbers (for those of us who neither eat nor drive?) could be taken in stride by investors.&nbsp; Higher commodity prices can certainly be rationalized as transitory, and traders in a bullish mindset can rationalize all sorts of inconvenient facts if they arise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All in all, today is a happy day for most investors.&nbsp; Even as the days get shorter in the Northern Hemisphere, many people see only sunshine for now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another day, another rally. Today seems to be a happy day for most investors. Even as the days get shorter in the Northern Hemisphere, many people see only sunshine for now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":91494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[570,61,686],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-110162","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-futures","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-inflation","18":"tag-rally","19":"tag-unemployment","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oh Happy Day | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today seems to be a happy day for most investors. 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