{"id":109807,"date":"2021-11-03T13:12:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-03T17:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=109807"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:19","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:19","slug":"what-the-options-market-is-expecting-from-the-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-the-options-market-is-expecting-from-the-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Options Market Is Expecting From the FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today is Fed day!&nbsp; At 2pm EDT, we will learn the results of the current meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and a half hour later, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will take to the mic for his customary press conference.&nbsp; By now you\u2019ve likely heard that markets are widely expecting an announcement that the Fed will taper its $120 billion of monthly bond purchases by $15 billion each month for the next 8 months.&nbsp; Investors will also be looking for clues about inflation and the timing for potential rate hikes.&nbsp; Accommodative monetary policy from a market-friendly Fed has been a key driver of rising asset prices for the better part of a decade and certainly since the Covid crisis hit early last year.&nbsp; Now comes the trickier part \u2013 unwinding some of that accommodation while neither stoking inflation or spooking markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although I concur with the general expectation for the pace of tapering, I am concerned that the language about inflation and interest hikes could be more strident than many investors expect.&nbsp; I\u2019ll leave the nuanced punditry to the economists who are better versed in Fed-speak, but I will note that the equity options market seems to be in broad agreement with my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Equity markets have tended to react poorly after recent FOMC meetings.&nbsp; As the table below indicates, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has traded lower 10 of the last 13 times in the three-day period that includes and immediately follows an FOMC meeting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-three-day-changes-after-prior-fomc-meetings-close-of-prior-day-through-2-days-after-the-announcement\"><strong>Three-Day Changes After Prior FOMC Meetings<\/strong> &amp; <strong>Close of Prior Day Through 2 Days After the Announcement<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"589\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-13.png\" alt=\"Three-Day Changes After Prior FOMC Meetings &amp; Close of Prior Day Through 2 Days After the Announcement\" class=\"wp-image-109812 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-13.png 840w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-13-700x491.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-13-300x210.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-13-768x539.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 840px; aspect-ratio: 840\/589;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The average return over those 3-day periods was -1.40%.&nbsp; Bear in mind first that those negative periods occurred during the midst of a raging bull market when over 63% of 3-day moves were higher.&nbsp; Also notice that the return was improved by the 2.33% bounce after the last meeting, though that added to the size of the average move.&nbsp; &nbsp;Although the sample size of periods around an FOMC meeting is relatively small, it is not incorrect for traders to be risk averse ahead of these events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The skew in SPX options, particularly for those expiring this Friday show that risk aversion quite clearly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Multi-Expiry Skew for SPX With Sequential Three-Week Expirations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA-1100x640.jpeg\" alt=\"Multi-Expiry Skew for SPX With Sequential Three-Week Expirations\" class=\"wp-image-109814 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA-1100x640.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA-700x407.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA-300x175.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA-768x447.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/62627B49-51B4-4980-AE1E-66E51A1387DA.jpeg 1280w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The top line shows this Friday\u2019s expiration.&nbsp; Bear in mind that this period includes not only today\u2019s FOMC meeting, but also Friday\u2019s payrolls report.&nbsp; We see that the at-money options are elevated, but only somewhat, with implied volatilities below 15.&nbsp; Remember, that indicates an expectation that volatility <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\">will average less than 1% per day<\/a> during the remaining life of the option.&nbsp; But notice how quickly the implied volatilities for options that hedge downside risk accelerate.&nbsp; Options that are struck at 95% of the current 4625 index level are trading with a nearly 30% implied volatility.&nbsp; That is indeed some risk aversion.&nbsp; And those implied volatilities continue to soar as we approach strikes 10% below the current level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The takeaway here is that most options traders appear reluctant to expect too great of a post-FOMC move, since at-money volatility remains only slightly elevated.&nbsp; But it is clear that there are persistent bids for downside protection, with at least some traders nervous ahead of an important news cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today is Fed Day! We take a look at the options market&#8217;s expectations for post-meeting moves over the coming days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23430,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[446,314],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-109807","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-options","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-federal-reserve","18":"tag-fomc","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What the Options Market Is Expecting From the FOMC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today is Fed Day! 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