{"id":109460,"date":"2021-11-02T00:33:16","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T04:33:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=109460"},"modified":"2023-02-24T10:27:57","modified_gmt":"2023-02-24T15:27:57","slug":"volatility-indexes-are-sending-a-strange-message-as-high-yield-melts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/volatility-indexes-are-sending-a-strange-message-as-high-yield-melts\/","title":{"rendered":"Volatility Indexes Are Sending A Strange Message As High Yield Melts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Stocks \u2013 SBUX, PYPL<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Macro \u2013 VIX, VXN, IRON ORE, SHIPPING, HYG<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stocks finished the day higher, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 18 bps. Not much was accomplished between Friday and today, so from my standpoint, that leaves a lot of the technical views I have shared relatively unchanged and not worth diving into. Given the Fed meeting on Wednesday, it seems likely we will grind sideways until that meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix\">VIX<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The VIX did rise slightly today to 16.4, and it has been trending higher the past few trading sessions. It isn\u2019t normal to see the VIX and the S&amp;P 500 both trending higher simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2-1100x729.png\" alt=\"Volatility Index\" class=\"wp-image-109463 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/Volatility-Index-2.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">VXN<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The VXN is also moving higher as well, and again this is highly unusual activity. Typically, when I have seen this rise in volatility and an increase in the market, it leads to a pullback; think about September 2020. It doesn\u2019t have to lead to a drop; I guess it could even lead to a push higher if the volatility melts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would make sense to see the VIX and VXN rise heading into the Fed meeting. But still worrisome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3-1100x729.png\" alt=\"Nasdaq Volatility Index\" class=\"wp-image-109467 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/2-Nasdaq-Index-3.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">High Yield (HYG)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a massive divergence forming between the HYG ETF and the S&amp;P 500. These two tend to trade together, so a deviation of this size seems notable. It doesn\u2019t tell us which asset class is correct, but couple that with rising volatility, and one should be paying close attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF-1100x729.png\" alt=\"High Yield ETF\" class=\"wp-image-109468 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/3-High-Yield-ETF.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Starbucks (SBUX)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Starbucks rebounded sharply today after falling on Friday. Friday\u2019s gap is still open and will likely get filled at $113.50 before the stock resumes its move lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1-1100x729.png\" alt=\"Starbucks\" class=\"wp-image-109470 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/4-Starbucks-1.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PayPal (PYPL)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart for PayPal doesn\u2019t look encouraging heading into results later this week. I have seen some options activity in the name, but I need to go through and analyze it better; I just haven\u2019t had the chance. But the stock is sitting right on support at $230, and it won\u2019t take much of a push at this point to get the shares trading down to $213.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal-1100x729.png\" alt=\"PayPal\" class=\"wp-image-109471 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Iron ore and shipping prices keep dropping, and the manufacturing slowdown in China for two months seems to be going ultimately unnoticed by the market. At some point, everyone will see it, but so far, no luck. I wonder how much longer the market will continue to rise in front of a global slowdown as the Fed reduce its asset purchases.&nbsp;<strong><em>\u00af\\_(\u30c4)_\/\u00af<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"729\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore-1100x729.png\" alt=\"Iron Ore\" class=\"wp-image-109472 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore-1100x729.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore-700x464.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore-768x509.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/6-Iron-ore.png 1320w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/729;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on November 1, 2021&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/mottcapitalmanagement.com\/volatility-indexes-are-sending-a-strange-message-as-high-yield-melts\/\">Volatility Indexes Are Sending A Strange Message As High Yield Melts<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks finished the day higher, with the S&#038;P 500 gaining 18 bps. Not much was accomplished between Friday and today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":109471,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1321,409,4047,1169,1803,317,6825],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":{"0":"post-109460","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-hyg","15":"tag-iron","16":"tag-pypl","17":"tag-sbux","18":"tag-shipping","19":"tag-vix","20":"tag-vxn","21":"contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Volatility Indexes Are Sending A Strange Message As High Yield Melts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stocks finished the day higher, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 18 bps. 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Not much was accomplished between Friday and today.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/volatility-indexes-are-sending-a-strange-message-as-high-yield-melts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-02T04:33:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-24T15:27:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/5-Paypal.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1320\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"875\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michael Kramer\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta 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