{"id":109324,"date":"2021-11-01T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-01T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=109324"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:53","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:53","slug":"whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>While thinking about the labor shortage, a saying attributed to Mark Twain crossed my mind: \u201c<em>There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.\u201d&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. I\u2019ve heard a wide range of explanations for the abundance of help wanted signs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Workers are too scared of COVID-19 to leave their houses.<\/li><li>The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyandmarkets.com\/7-factors-of-how-the-us-economy-works\/\">economy<\/a>&nbsp;is overheating due to Fed stimulus.<\/li><li>High unemployment benefits incentivizing people to stop looking for work.<\/li><li>Moms are unable to find childcare.<\/li><li>Boomers are taking early retirement.<\/li><li>Young people opting to quit the rat race before they start it.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>What do the numbers say? Let\u2019s start with the labor force participation rate. This includes every American currently working and looking for work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"810\" height=\"397\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1.jpg\" alt=\"labor force participation rate\" class=\"wp-image-109325 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1.jpg 810w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1-700x343.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1-300x147.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1-768x376.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 810px; aspect-ratio: 810\/397;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source:&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CIVPART\"><strong>Federal Reserve.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labor force participation dipped in the pandemic and hasn\u2019t recovered. Just before COVID-19 blew up the world, 63.3% of Americans aged 15-64 were participating in the labor force. Today, that number is 61.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A difference of 1.7% might not sound like much. But that\u2019s 1.7% of 205 million people, or about 3.5 million people that have simply dropped out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But who are these people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-entrepreneurial-class\"><strong>Entrepreneurial Class<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019re not lazy teenagers in need of a haircut and real job. The percentage of 16 to19 year olds in the workforce was 36.2% pre-pandemic, and it\u2019s slightly higher today at 36.3%. It seems that rising wages motivated a small sliver of America\u2019s youth to get off the couch!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019re also not primarily moms struggling to find childcare. Labor force participation among women is down about 1.9%, not materially different from the general population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What about Boomers deciding to hang up their cleats? Labor force participation among Americans 55 and older dropped 1.7%, from 40.3% to 38.6%, in line with the general population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, you can be \u201cin the workforce\u201d and not have a job. America has been a country of entrepreneurs since the very beginning, and we\u2019ve all heard anecdotal stories of people quitting their jobs to take that leap. After living for nearly two years with the threat of a deadly virus, starting a business suddenly seems a lot less scary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is harder to prove in the data, as many small businesses are informal. But we can see it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the pandemic, Americans were filing the paperwork for new business tax IDs at a rate of about 280,000 per month. That number has spiked to between 400,000 and 500,000 per month.<br><br>And again, these are only the businesses formal enough to get their own tax ID. We have no way of measuring how many side hustles have been started since mid-2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"817\" height=\"398\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_2.jpg\" alt=\"a wane of new small businesses\" class=\"wp-image-109326 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_2.jpg 817w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_2-700x341.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_2-300x146.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_2-768x374.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 817px) 100vw, 817px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 817px; aspect-ratio: 817\/398;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source:&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/BABATOTALSAUS\"><strong>Federal Reserve.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Takeaway<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Many of these businesses will fail, and the would-be entrepreneurs will likely go back to being paycheck employers and employees. In my opinion, new workers will trickle back into the workforce in the years ahead.<br><br>Higher wages might also convince teenagers, stay-at-home moms, and would-be retirees to work in greater numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my view, a recession will cool off demand for labor in the short term, and cheap automation will replace it in the longer term. So, one way or another, this problem will get fixed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it\u2019s not likely to happen overnight. So don\u2019t be surprised if those help wanted signs stay posted a while longer.<br><br>This&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyandmarkets.com\/why-is-there-a-labor-shortage\/\">post<\/a>&nbsp;first appeared on October 26 on the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyandmarkets.com\/\">Money &amp; Markets blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on November 1, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/investing.interactiveadvisors.com\/2021\/11\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\">What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>DISCLOSURE<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This piece is provided as educational information only and is not intended to provide investment or other advice. This material is&nbsp; not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial product, instrument, or to participate&nbsp; in any particular trading strategy.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. I\u2019ve heard a wide range of explanations for the abundance of help wanted signs:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":109325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[674,321],"contributors-categories":[13605],"class_list":{"0":"post-109324","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-employment","14":"tag-labor","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. I\u2019ve heard a wide range of explanations for the abundance...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109324\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. I\u2019ve heard a wide range of explanations for the abundance of help wanted signs:\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-01T14:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T14:48:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/intadv_11-1-21_1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"810\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"397\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Charles Sizemore\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Charles Sizemore\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Charles Sizemore\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d85c59af542575147e6573f7508dcb6d\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-11-01T14:45:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:53+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 644,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/intadv_11-1-21_1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"employment\",\n\t                \"labor\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/whats-really-behind-the-us-labor-shortage\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/intadv_11-1-21_1.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-11-01T14:45:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:53+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. 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I\u2019ve heard a wide range of explanations for the abundance...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109324\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What\u2019s Really Behind The US Labor Shortage | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"Let\u2019s delve into the statistics to see if I can make heads or tails of the labor shortage. 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