{"id":109318,"date":"2021-11-01T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-01T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=109318"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:54","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:54","slug":"weekly-market-recap-nov-1-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-nov-1-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Nov. 1, 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Real GDP increased 2.0% q\/q (ann.)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>FOMC meeting<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With 73.9% of market cap reporting, we are currently tracking 3Q21 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $51.61. If realized, this would represent growth of 36.2% y\/y and a slight contraction of 0.8% q\/q; however, this quarterly decline looks far smaller than it did at the start of earnings season when it stood at -7.4%. Positive earnings surprises (+11.2%) have been key in improving the quarterly figure, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector. In fact, the sector is currently tracking y\/y earnings growth of 1.2%, which is remarkable given the supply bottlenecks, higher labor costs and slowdown in 3Q21 consumer spending. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to economic data released last Friday, real consumer spending increased only 0.3% and 0.6% m\/m in September and August, respectively, after declining 0.3% m\/m in July. Looking at autos specifically, earnings have beaten estimates as limited inventory boosted vehicle prices. Additionally, management teams were upbeat about the semiconductor shortage and believe things will normalize by the second half of next year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turning to the apparel industry we see a similar trend, where earnings beats were driven by price increases that more than offset higher wages and commodity costs. However, on the supply chain front the commentary was less optimistic, as many of the industry\u2019s factories in Vietnam still remain closed or are only partially open. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lastly, results at hotels &amp; restaurants were a bit mixed, with restaurants leveraging price increases to outperform estimates while hotels continue to suffer amid renewed global travel restrictions. Looking ahead, the discretionary sector will remain in focus, particularly given the still-unresolved supply chain issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"873\" height=\"357\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image.png\" alt=\"real consumer spending continues to grow modestly\" class=\"wp-image-109319 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image.png 873w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-700x286.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-300x123.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-768x314.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 873px) 100vw, 873px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 873px; aspect-ratio: 873\/357;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"486\" height=\"44\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-109320 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-1.png 486w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/image-1-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 486px) 100vw, 486px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 486px; aspect-ratio: 486\/44;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/blob-gim\/1383452890099\/83456\/weekly_market_recap.pdf\">Click here to access the material on J.P. Morgan\u2019s website.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the<br>program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., November 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of November 1, 2021 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Positive earnings surprises (+11.2%) have been key in improving the quarterly figure, particularly in the consumer discretionary 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