{"id":108625,"date":"2021-10-26T09:40:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-26T13:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=108625"},"modified":"2023-03-14T11:36:07","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T15:36:07","slug":"stocks-priced-for-perfection-and-dollar-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/stocks-priced-for-perfection-and-dollar-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Priced for Perfection and Dollar in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

E-mini S&P (December) \/ NQ (December)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 4558, up 21.00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 15,495.75, up 154.75<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks notched another impressive session. Tesla surged 12.7% and eclipsed a $1 trillion market cap after Hertz ordered 100,000 cars. Yes, we could point out the $4 billion order doesn\u2019t justify $120 billion added in market cap, but this was more about follow through on last week\u2019s momentum as the stock broke to new highs and Tesla\u2019s pricing power after Elon Musk tweeted Hertz would pay full price. The stock undoubtedly set a grandiose tone of risk-on. The S&P and Dow achieved fresh record highs, while the NQ is closing in on its own. After the bell, Facebook further boosted sentiment. Surely not because of its revenue miss or lower guidance, but for the $50 billion in buybacks the company announced. The earnings carousel continues, and UPS is the highlight this morning. The stock is up 5% after not only the company topped estimates, but every one of its business segments did. Eli Lilly, Novartis, Raytheon, and Sherwin Williams are among a deluge of mixed reports. After the bell, all eyes will be on mega-caps Microsoft and Alphabet. They report along with Visa, Texas Instruments, AMD, and Twitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Headlines are pointing to small steps forward in U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held \u201ccandid and constructive talks\u201d. This comes after President Biden and Chinese President Xi spoke last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s economic calendar brings the Case Shiller Home Price Index at 8:00 am CT and the closely watched CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. Richmond Fed Manufacturing is also due at 9:00 and Dallas Services data follows at 9:30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technicals: The S&P has broken out and the NQ has cleared the last major three-star resistance we have between Monday\u2019s open and its record high. The S&P is holding at and above our next key resistance at 4575.50 since the spike that followed the European open. If this is well received through the opening bell, it is likely to see major three-star resistance at 4587.75 tested; this is a measured move off Friday\u2019s whipsaw. As for the NQ, it finished right at major three-star resistance at 15,509-15,532 and a 0.5% whipsaw on Facebook\u2019s earnings release quickly chewed through. Underpinning the rally for both he S&P and NQ are our momentum indicators aligning to create first key support. Below here, we have major three-star support in both. While holding above 4949.50-4951.50 and 15,483-15,495 the bulls are in the driver\u2019s seat and the path of least resistance is higher. Also, this morning, the Russell is … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude Oil (December)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 83.76, unch<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals: Crude Oil slipped back into the thick of Friday\u2019s rally, trading to a session low of 82.97 before rebounding above the $84 mark. Natural Gas is slightly lower this morning after the December contract closed above $6 for the first time since October 5th and the second time on this rally. U.S. inventory data will come into the picture and likely dominate the near-term narrative. Last week, massive draws in the products due to a drop in Refinery Utilization for the second week in a row underpinned the latest surge. Early estimates are for +1.65 mb Crude, -1.85 mb Gasoline, and -2.35 mb Distillates. Blackrock became the latest to call for $100 Brent. Saudi Aramco\u2019s CEO said companies need to invest more to increase production and 2022 demand will further tighten supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technicals: This morning\u2019s snap back is an ever-present reminder of how strong this trend is. Crude slipped 2.8% after sticking its neck above $85 and testing key resistance at 85.55. Still, we have rare major four-star resistance at 84.60-85.00 and a close above here would encourage added buying while potentially solidifying a new floor at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold (December) \/ Silver (December)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 1805.3, up 10.5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silver, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 24.592, up 0.143<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals: Overnight macro action, lower U.S. Dollar and higher Bonds, should have been a tailwind for Gold and Silver to extend yesterday\u2019s gains, but it was not. Yesterday, Gold rallied in the face of U.S. Dollar strength. Each posted an impressive start to the week, but they are unlikely to remain correlated. From a technical standpoint, Gold is at a massive level of resistance and the Dollar is responding from support. This may not bode well for Gold in the near-term. Today\u2019s economic calendar brings the Case Shiller Home Price Index at 8:00 am CT and the closely watched CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technicals: Gold and Silver have shown good strength, but we feel it is appropriate to go Neutral at such a critical level of technical resistance. Gold must close out above Friday\u2019s high and break above the trend line from last August\u2019s record and still it would not be in the clear. Silver has also tested a critical level of technical resistance aligning multiple indicators with a failed rally. As they are slipping slightly this morning, they both will test into strong waves of technical support. Holding construction at and above these will help lay groundwork for a breakout, but a close below … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on October 26, 2021 – Stocks Priced for Perfection and Dollar in Focus\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The earnings carousel continues, and UPS is the highlight this morning. 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