{"id":108612,"date":"2021-10-26T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-26T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=108612"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:44","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:44","slug":"japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan Shows the Real Danger Is Stagflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyone younger than 50 or so likely has no real memory of chronic, destabilizing inflation. You would have had to have lived through the disco era of the 1970s to have a frame of reference here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those days were marked by gas lines, soaring costs of food and basic necessities and a general sense of economic malaise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To get a feel for what we might be in for in the coming months stateside, I want to see how Japan has dealt with a unique inflation situation for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-japan-s-experience\"><strong>Japan\u2019s Experience&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan\u2019s consumer price index came in at 101.5 in August. That wouldn\u2019t be noteworthy except for the fact that the index was sitting at 100.9 in late 1998 and at 94.2 in August of 1991.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices in Japan are essentially unchanged in 23 years and have moved a whopping 7.3% over the past 30 years. That\u2019s not 7% per year, mind you. It\u2019s 7% \u2026&nbsp;<em>in total<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bill Clinton was still the governor of Arkansas the last time inflation in Japan was significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"838\" height=\"396\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21.jpg\" alt=\"Decades of stagnant inflation in japan\" class=\"wp-image-108613 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21.jpg 838w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21-700x331.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21-300x142.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21-768x363.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 838px) 100vw, 838px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 838px; aspect-ratio: 838\/396;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Source:&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/JPNCPIALLMINMEI\"><strong>Federal Reserve.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Big Spender<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan hasn\u2019t been the model of fiscal or monetary discipline over that stretch. Japan hasn\u2019t had a balanced budget since 1992.<br><br>For most of the past 30 years, its budget deficits have been as large or larger than ours in the U.S. Japan ran a budget deficit of 12.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) last year.<br><br>Its accumulated national debt is now 266% of GDP, about double the 132% of GDP that the American government has borrowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Zero Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan\u2019s interest rates have been zero or close to zero since 1999. Japan also invented \u201cquantitative easing.\u201d The term was coined to describe Japan\u2019s aggressive bond buying in the late 1990s and early 2000s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We were all aghast when the Federal Reserve ballooned its balance sheet following the pandemic. But even after gobbling up trillions in U.S. government debt, the Fed\u2019s balance sheet is \u201conly\u201d a little over 40% the size of the U.S&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyandmarkets.com\/7-factors-of-how-the-us-economy-works\/\">economy<\/a>. The Bank of Japan\u2019s holdings of Japanese government debt is now close to 100% of the size of its economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And it\u2019s not just government bonds. The Bank of Japan is now the largest single shareholder of Japanese stocks and owns massive holdings of real estate via real estate investment trusts (REITs) as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Takeawa<\/strong>y<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan hasn\u2019t taken Ben Bernanke\u2019s old advice to dump yen out of helicopters yet. But that\u2019s just about the only thing the country hasn\u2019t done. And it&nbsp;<em>still<\/em>&nbsp;can\u2019t sustain inflation. The country continues to struggle with deflation instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. isn\u2019t Japan, and we shouldn\u2019t assume that we\u2019ll follow the exact same path. In my opinion, this does suggest that maybe \u2014 just&nbsp;<em>maybe<\/em>&nbsp;\u2014 today\u2019s inflation is transitory.<br><br>Once the post-COVID supply chain mess gets worked out we may have to deal with falling prices instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on October 26, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/investing.interactiveadvisors.com\/2021\/10\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\">Japan Shows the Real Danger Is Stagflation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>DISCLOSURE<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This piece is provided as educational information only and is not intended to provide investment or other advice. This material is&nbsp; not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial product, instrument, or to participate&nbsp; in any particular trading strategy.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prices in Japan are essentially unchanged in 23 years and have moved a whopping 7.3% over the past 30 years. That\u2019s not 7% per year, mind you. It\u2019s 7% \u2026 in total.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":108613,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,15,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1631,8533],"contributors-categories":[13605],"class_list":["post-108612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-fixed-income","category-macro","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-japan","tag-stagflation","contributors-categories-interactive-advisors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Japan Shows the Real Danger Is Stagflation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prices in Japan are essentially unchanged in 23 years and have moved a whopping 7.3% over the past 30 years. 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It\u2019s 7% \u2026 in total.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-10-26T13:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T14:48:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/int_adv_10-26-21.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"838\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"396\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Charles Sizemore\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Charles Sizemore\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Charles Sizemore\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d85c59af542575147e6573f7508dcb6d\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Japan Shows the Real Danger Is Stagflation\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-10-26T13:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:44+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 556,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/10\\\/int_adv_10-26-21.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"Japan\",\n\t                \"stagflation\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Asia Pacific\",\n\t                \"Fixed Income\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Japan Shows the Real Danger Is Stagflation | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/japan-shows-the-real-danger-is-stagflation\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/10\\\/int_adv_10-26-21.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-10-26T13:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:44+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Prices in Japan are essentially unchanged in 23 years and have moved a whopping 7.3% over the past 30 years. 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That\u2019s not 7% per year, mind you. 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