{"id":108057,"date":"2021-10-21T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=108057"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:37","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:37","slug":"unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/","title":{"rendered":"Unrivaled Store Footprint Drives Upside Potential"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This retailer is positioned well to grow its top and bottom lines over the long term, but the stock is priced as if profits will fall below pre-pandemic levels. Dollar General (DG: $206\/share <strong>as of time of publication<\/strong>) is this week\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/category\/stock-plays-of-the-week\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Long Idea<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>DG presents quality risk\/reward given Dollar General\u2019s:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>largest brick-and-mortar footprint in the U.S.<\/li><li>rising market share and same-store sales<\/li><li>small low-cost store format is difficult for competitors to replicate<\/li><li>high profitability, especially capital turnover, amongst peers<\/li><li>strong growth opportunities<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-largest-brick-and-mortar-footprint-in-the-u-s\"><strong>Largest Brick-and-Mortar Footprint in the U.S.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With a store within five miles of 75% of the U.S. population, Dollar General offers many millions of consumers convenience and creates strong brand awareness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of 2020<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/#_ftn1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">[1]<\/a>, Dollar General operated 17 thousand stores, more than Dollar Trees\u2019 (DLTR) ~15,700 stores, 1.9X the number of Walgreen\u2019s (WBA) stores, and 1.2x the combined store count of Walmart (WMT), Kroger (KR), Target (TGT), Big Lots (BIG), Five Below (FIVE), and Albertson\u2019s (ACI), per Figure 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Figure 1: Dollar General\u2019s U.S. Store Count Vs. Competition &#8211; 2020<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"630\" height=\"268\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/newconstructs_10-21-21_1.png\" alt=\"Dollar General\u2019s U.S. Store Count Vs. Competition - 2020\" class=\"wp-image-108061 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/newconstructs_10-21-21_1.png 630w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/newconstructs_10-21-21_1-300x128.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 630px; aspect-ratio: 630\/268;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Brick-and-Mortar Footprint Is Growing and Taking Market Share<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dollar General is aggressively expanding its footprint. Per Figure 2, Dollar General\u2019s share of U.S. retail stores grew even more during the pandemic as many weaker operators closed stores. Dollar General stores comprised 5.2% of all&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/1079239\/brick-and-mortar-retail-store-count-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. brick-and-mortar stores<\/a>&nbsp;in 2020, up from 3.5% in 2018. The firm plans to add an additional 1,050 stores in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/\">Click here to read the full post<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This article originally published on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/\"><em>October 6, 2021<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Alex Sword, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Follow us on&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NewConstructs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Twitter<\/em><\/a><em>,&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/newconstructsllc\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Facebook<\/em><\/a><em>,&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/new-constructs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a><em>, and&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/dtrainer_NewConstructs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a><em>&nbsp;for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/#_ftnref1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">[1]<\/a>&nbsp;Dollar General\u2019s last fiscal year ended January 29, 2021, which we refer to throughout the report as 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/#_ftnref2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">[2]<\/a>&nbsp;Five Below\u2019s TTM ROIC is up from 9% in 2020 and may not be sustainable going forward. Five Below\u2019s 2-year average ROIC of 12% is well below Dollar General\u2019s 2-year ROIC of 14%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/unrivaled-store-footprint-drives-upside-potential\/#_ftnref3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">[3]<\/a>&nbsp;Only Core Earnings enable investors to overcome the inaccuracies, omissions and biases in legacy fundamental data and research, as proven in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/its-official-we-offer-the-best-fundamental-data-in-the-world\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Core Earnings: New Data &amp; Evidence<\/a>, written by professors at Harvard Business School (HBS) &amp; MIT Sloan and published in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3467814\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newconstructs.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/LongIdea_DG_2021_10_06.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Click here to download a PDF of this report<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dollar General is positioned well to grow its top and bottom lines over the long term, but the stock is priced as if profits will fall below pre-pandemic levels. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":348,"featured_media":108061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[9402],"contributors-categories":[13616],"class_list":{"0":"post-108057","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-dollar-general","14":"contributors-categories-new-constructs"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Unrivaled Store Footprint Drives Upside Potential<\/title>\n<meta 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