{"id":107961,"date":"2021-10-21T11:40:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-21T15:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107961"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:38","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:38","slug":"how-to-make-crude-oil-smaller","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/how-to-make-crude-oil-smaller\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Make Crude Oil Smaller"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After presenting a trader friend with the potential edge in selling crude oil\u2019s recent quinquennial highs, he responded, \u201cCool, but how high can it go?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This question can plague many attempting to act on what the data tells them, and it\u2019s especially justified for volatile commodity markets like oil and natural gas. Thankfully, crude oil has been around for a while, and there\u2019s enough data to both display an opportunity and measure the risk around it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Crude Oil: Trading the Reversal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Knowing that a market has historically reversed course from its highs can be great news for contrarians looking to sell expensive crude oil, and an average move lower of -$2.50 in the month following said high can pose a big fat edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"969\" height=\"198\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-86.png\" alt=\"Crude Oil\u2019s Average Move After New High since 2015\" class=\"wp-image-107962 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-86.png 969w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-86-700x143.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-86-300x61.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-86-768x157.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 969px) 100vw, 969px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 969px; aspect-ratio: 969\/198;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Extending Duration in Crude Oil<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The challenge becomes withstanding the P\/L volatility that can come along with a short crude oil position, not to mention the market\u2019s ability to reach $100 a few times in the last decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cl-crude-oil\"><strong>CL \\<\/strong> Crude Oil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"273\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-107963 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-87.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-87-300x131.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/273;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Yahoo! Finance (https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/) and dxFeed Index Services (https:\/\/indexit.dxfeed.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first step to extending duration is often to simply reduce size. Small Crude Oil (SMO) futures cut the size of traditional crude futures (CL) contracts tenfold. Next, offsetting part of the short position with a long deltas via a short put can help even further. Options on the highly correlated, similarly sized Energy Sector ETF (XLE) offer a solid spot to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"968\" height=\"263\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-88.png\" alt=\"P\/L Standard Deviation by Position\" class=\"wp-image-107964 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-88.png 968w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-88-700x190.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-88-300x82.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-88-768x209.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 968px; aspect-ratio: 968\/263;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil has a volatile reputation, and rightfully so! The commodity has both broken the $0 bound and bounced back above $80 since the start of 2020. But the modern trader has the tools to remain chill during periods of explosiveness in this market and potentially take advantage of the opportunity in front of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking for a new way to trade stocks, commodities, and foreign exchange? Sign up for in-depth analysis on products that are small, standard, and simple from the Small Exchange: <a href=\"https:\/\/go.smallexchange.com\/IBKRTC\">https:\/\/go.smallexchange.com\/IBKRTC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The information presented here is for illustrative purposes only, and is not intended to serve as investment advice since the availability and effectiveness of any strategy is dependent upon your individual facts and circumstances.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Cool, but how high can it go?\u201d This question can plague many attempting to act on what the data tells them, and it\u2019s especially justified for volatile commodity markets like oil and natural gas. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":450,"featured_media":107963,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1056],"contributors-categories":[13702],"class_list":{"0":"post-107961","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-crude-oil","14":"contributors-categories-the-small-exchange"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to Make Crude Oil Smaller | Traders&#039; 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