{"id":107839,"date":"2021-10-20T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-20T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107839"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:36","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:36","slug":"pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Pricing In A Less Dovish Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bond yields have drifted up 0.25% over the past month. Real yields on TIPs have barely budged from around \u20131%, so the move in bonds has translated into rising inflation expectations \u2014 now solidly above 2.5% for the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The persistence of negative real yields is surprising \u2013 with the Fed likely to finally rein in their bond buying, one might have expected this loss of support to be reflected in TIPs, but so far it hasn\u2019t. Inflation-adjusted returns have been falling for many years. Negative TIPs yields undercut the concern of fiscal hawks about our ballooning debt, since there\u2019s apparently no negative consequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-107840 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The increase in ten year treasury yields has not been evenly distributed across the eurodollar futures curve. Over the past month, the market has factored in a more hawkish FOMC &nbsp;\u2013 one additional tightening of monetary policy by the end of next year (total of two) has been priced in. By the summer of 2023 almost two additional tightenings&nbsp; have been priced in (a 1% increase in total). The rise in inflation expectations is creating the anticipation of a reaction from the FOMC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">$120BN a month of quantitative easing has continued for too long. The $40BN a month of mortgage-backed security purchases is especially egregious, and the slothful exit from this strategy is turning out to be too slow. Following last month\u2019s payroll report some even questioned whether tapering might be delayed, although the shortfall in employment was due at least in part to a shortage of workers. The FOMC remains focused on restoring the five million jobs still missing from pre-covid, and is willing to risk some inflation in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-107841 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_2.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_2-700x393.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_2-768x432.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1030px; aspect-ratio: 1030\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move in rates has pulled the market further away from the FOMC\u2019s outlook. This Fed is the most dovish in living memory. It\u2019s easy to see how chair Jay Powell could justify temperance before raising short term rates. In addition to the employment picture, widely acknowledged logistics problems won\u2019t be fixed with higher rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although Democrat politicians won\u2019t accept credit, they\u2019ve engineered rising oil and gas prices through curtailed investment so as to shift consumption to renewables \u2013 even if solar and wind aren\u2019t yet up to the challenge (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/why-the-energy-crisis-will-force-more-realism\">Why The Energy Crisis Will Force More Realism<\/a>). Reducing CO2 emissions requires more expensive energy (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/is-the-energy-transition-inflationary\">Is The Energy Transition Inflationary?).<\/a>&nbsp;Tightening monetary policy because of a green agenda seems unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Few policymakers want higher rates, but the \u201ctransitory\u201d narrative is looking less compelling. The next public comments from FOMC officials will be worth watching to see if they confirm the more hawkish rate path currently in the market or remain true to their previous guidance. Powell has said they wouldn\u2019t contemplate raising rates until they\u2019d stopped buying bonds. This suggests 2H22 as the earliest they would raise rates, although they could also speed up tapering if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The net result is that the market is increasingly challenging the Fed\u2019s benign inflation outlook and slow policy normalization. The FOMC\u2019s dovish instincts are being challenged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On a different topic, liberal commentators have been lambasting Senator Joe Manchin (D-WVa) as the one person thwarting efforts to combat climate change (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/17\/climate\/manchin-west-virginia-flooding.html?searchResultPosition=8\">As Manchin Blocks Climate Plan, His State Can\u2019t Hold Back Floods<\/a>). This overlooks the 50 Republican senators also opposed to the Administration\u2019s agenda, so Manchin\u2019s concerns place him in the majority, even if that is inconvenient to progressives. It is democracy in action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Manchin believes that the voters of West Virginia have more to lose from a system of rewards and penalties for utilities dependent on their adoption of renewables than they do from climate change. This seems rational \u2013 the drop in coal demand they fear would hit quickly. The adverse effects of global warming are loosely related \u2013 China\u2019s choices on emissions are the most important and are unlikely to be swayed by West Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once again we\u2019re seeing the failure of climate extremists to move beyond broad yet shallow support, due to pretending the energy transition is costless. Voters in West Virginia don\u2019t see it that way, which is why a more honest discussion about costs and benefits will be necessary before we make any real progress on the issue. Hopefully that is coming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted pm October 20, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/sl-advisors.com\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\">Pricing In A Less Dovish Fed<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The move in rates has pulled the market further away from the FOMC\u2019s outlook. This Fed is the most dovish in living memory. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":107840,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[9682,446,295],"contributors-categories":[13626],"class_list":["post-107839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-dovish","tag-federal-reserve","tag-yields","contributors-categories-sl-advisors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pricing In A Less Dovish Fed | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The move in rates has pulled the market further away from the FOMC\u2019s outlook. 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This Fed is the most dovish in living memory.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-10-20T15:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T14:48:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/sladv_10-20-21_1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1030\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"579\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Simon Lack\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Simon Lack\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Simon Lack\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9210f6052706e4eca9ef65a20b5b83e0\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Pricing In A Less Dovish Fed\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-10-20T15:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:36+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 734,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/10\\\/sladv_10-20-21_1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"dovish\",\n\t                \"Federal Reserve\",\n\t                \"yields\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Fixed Income\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Pricing In A Less Dovish Fed | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/pricing-in-a-less-dovish-fed\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2021\\\/10\\\/sladv_10-20-21_1.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2021-10-20T15:30:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:48:36+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"The move in rates has pulled the market further away from the FOMC\u2019s outlook. 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