{"id":107352,"date":"2021-10-15T10:25:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-15T14:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107352"},"modified":"2023-03-01T09:44:01","modified_gmt":"2023-03-01T14:44:01","slug":"a-secular-bull-market-in-commodities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/a-secular-bull-market-in-commodities\/","title":{"rendered":"A Secular Bull Market in Commodities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Market Activity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

– THIS IS A SECULAR BULL MARKET IN COMMODITIES<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Copper +10% on the WEEK and highest since May,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Heating Oil +10% on the month and highest since 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Crude Oil +10% on the month and highest since 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– RBOB +11% on the month and highest since 2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Cotton locked-limit-up on the day and +20% over two months<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Coffee +8% on the week and highest since July<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Lumber +23% on the month and highest since July<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– S&P breaking out above rare major four-star resistance, bullish but there are resistance levels across indices<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– CPI and PPI contained this week, chicken and egg argument, STOKES INFLATION, whereas a hot read supports U.S. Dollar and erodes inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Economic calendar: Sept Retail Sales coming up at 7:30 am CT along with fresh October NY Empire State Manufacturing. Fresh October Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:00 am CT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– China supports risk-environment, told banks to speed up mortgage loan approval, Asia indices +1.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Goldman Sachs beats earnings estimates, stock +2.25% premarket<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P (December) \/ NQ (December)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 4329, up 74.00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 15,037.25, up 273.00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– S&P breaking out above rare major four-star resistance and NQ closing in on its; weekly close matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Close below 4390 and 14,870-14,902 would completely neutralize this latest leg and pin price action back within consolidation range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Very bullish if price action holds out above our Pivots and point of balance at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude Oil (November)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled 81.31, up 0.87<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– New swing high of 82.30, above 82.18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– November contract expiration squeeze? Options expired yesterday and could have contained strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Products lead to the upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– December Brent 85.10 high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– First key support at 80.38-80.65<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Very bullish while holding above our Pivot and point of balance at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold (December) \/ Silver (December)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 1797.9, up 3.2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silver, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 23.477, up 0.307<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– We said explicitly that Gold and Silver are not out of the woods and must close above major three-star resistance detailed below and in our chart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Gold has failed at major three-star resistance at 1800-1804, aligning a trend line with the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Industrial strength helping to underpin Silver for less of a loss than Gold, but still back below major three-star resistance at 23.35 would like to see a settle above here on the week. – The bullish leg in Gold this week will be completely neutralized upon a close below … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on October 15, 2021 – A Secular Bull Market in Commodities<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is a secular bull market in commodities. 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