{"id":107176,"date":"2021-10-14T12:48:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T16:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107176"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:26","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:26","slug":"the-moving-averages-still-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-moving-averages-still-rule\/","title":{"rendered":"The Moving Averages Still Rule"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This morning we are seeing a nice bounce in major US equity indices, with most of them about 1.5% higher.&nbsp; There were certainly valid reasons for today\u2019s enthusiasm.&nbsp; We received solid earnings from major banks, a PPI report that beat expectations, and jobless claims at pandemic-era lows.&nbsp; Although we <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-quick-launch-then-right-back-to-earth-the-market-not-shatner\/\">warned yesterday<\/a> about the dangers of blindly following a suspicious pre-market bounce in index futures, there was nothing suspicious about today\u2019s pre-market trading.&nbsp; Futures rose steadily overnight, and the bumps higher were clearly in reaction to rising world markets and the upbeat news:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-e-mini-futures-es-intraday-trading-including-pre-market\">SPX E-mini Futures (ES), Intraday Trading Including Pre-Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"632\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D-1100x632.jpeg\" alt=\"SPX E-mini Futures (ES), Intraday Trading Including Pre-Market \" class=\"wp-image-107194 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D-1100x632.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D-700x402.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D-300x172.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D-768x441.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/EA4756E6-2CC9-4362-AEBF-3734529D077D.jpeg 1280w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/632;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big jumps were at 7:00 AM (EDT), when bank earnings began to flow, at 8:30, when the economic reports were released, and 10:10 as we broke through the 4400 level (more about that later).&nbsp; It is important to distinguish investment activity from speculative events.&nbsp; So far, today is the former.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the action in the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has been very well-behaved, at least so far today.&nbsp; Consider the graph below, paying special attention to the purple line near the top, which is the 50-day moving average:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPX Daily Graph, 18 Months (bars) with 50-Day (purple), 100-Day (yellow), and 200-Day Moving Averages<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"632\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583-1100x632.jpeg\" alt=\"SPX Daily Graph, 18 Months (bars) with 50-Day (purple), 100-Day (yellow), and 200-Day Moving Averages\" class=\"wp-image-107195 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583-1100x632.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583-700x402.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583-300x172.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583-768x441.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/BD7EAF49-5AE8-43C6-97F9-CBD0EE341583.jpeg 1280w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/632;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> <em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is amazing how well-behaved SPX has been over the past 18 months.&nbsp; Since the post-Covid rebound began in earnest, moving averages have defined the uptrend almost perfectly. The 50-day moving average has been supportive throughout, failing to support the advance only 3 times prior to now, and even then, only briefly.&nbsp; This is the longest period that SPX has remained below that average in about 1.5 years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It should not be at all surprising that today\u2019s advance is pausing at the 50-day moving average.&nbsp; Technical analysis posits that support becomes resistance.&nbsp; If the index has been so respectful of that prior support, it is logical to expect that it would utilize that same average\u2019s level as short-term resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bigger question for investors is whether we should be expecting to see the 50-day average resuming its focus as a source of support or resistance.&nbsp; Until yesterday, we had seen a short-term patter of lower highs and lower lows.&nbsp; That is rarely a positive sign.&nbsp; Yesterday we flirted with another dip, but never tested last week\u2019s lows.&nbsp; Instead, we bounced into the close, with the advance stopping at the 100-day moving average that has recently superseded the 50-day average as the primary trend for SPX.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet after all this consideration of technical analysis \u2013 support, resistance, moving averages, and the like \u2013 it has a way of failing at the most inopportune times.&nbsp; Just because we are taking an intra-day breather at the 50-day moving average means nothing going forward.&nbsp; Quite specifically, we have a monthly options expiration tomorrow.&nbsp; Index options expire on the open, with stocks and ETFs expiring at the close.&nbsp; The open interest on the expiring SPX 4450 line is nearly 50,000 contracts, which dwarfs all the other lines around it.&nbsp; The nearest is 4400 with just over 30,000 contracts, and I think it is no coincidence that SPX shot higher when we broke through that level this morning.&nbsp; Large options positions can act like magnets or slingshots when stocks or indices approach them just before expiration.&nbsp; When a strike is approached or crossed, someone needs to re-hedge.&nbsp; The larger the open interest, the larger the need to re-hedge.&nbsp; Well behaved or not, it would not shock me if we tested the 4450 level either this afternoon or on tomorrow\u2019s open.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning we are seeing a nice bounce in major US equity indices, with most of them about 1.5% higher.  There were certainly valid reasons for today\u2019s enthusiasm.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21171,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,17,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[4247,10461],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-107176","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-futures","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-options","13":"category-region","14":"category-securities","15":"category-stocks","16":"category-technical-analysis","17":"category-text-articles","18":"category-traders-insight","19":"tag-indices","20":"tag-market-bounce","21":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Moving Averages Still Rule | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This morning we are seeing a nice bounce in major US equity indices, with most of them about 1.5% higher. 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