{"id":107083,"date":"2021-10-14T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107083"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:26","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:26","slug":"gitlab-another-overpriced-tech-company","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/gitlab-another-overpriced-tech-company\/","title":{"rendered":"GitLab: Another Overpriced Tech Company"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

GitLab Inc. (GTLB), a software development platform, is set to IPO soon. At the midpoint, the firm would have a valuation of $8.2 billion and earn our Unattractive<\/a> rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GitLab is a subscription based SAAS company with a large total addressable market (TAM), which may entice investors. However, the firm sells to only a tiny portion of its TAM and is competing against some of the largest technology companies in the world. With worst-in-class fundamentals and an already overpriced valuation, we have significant concerns regarding the stock’s profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We believe the stock is worth less, approximately 91% below the midpoint of the expected price range. An $8 billion valuation implies that GitLab will achieve very optimistic milestones, including reversing a downward trend in profits, growing revenue by more than 17x, and nearly tripling its current market share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With only ~21 months of cash to cover its current cash burn rate, GitLab\u2019s current owners need this IPO to help the company avoid bankruptcy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Freemium Model Is Not Profitable<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

GitLab\u2019s model for growing revenue is based on the freemium model: gain users with a free version of its software and convert those users to paying members. As of June 2021, GitLab had 30 million free users with just 15,356 paying users. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, GitLab has converted less than 1% of its user base, which is well below the average estimated freemium conversion rate<\/a> of 2-5%. Most of these converted users are also on lower priced, less profitable plans. GitLab notes that it has 3,632 \u201cbase customers\u201d, which generate more than $5,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR). It discloses only 383 customers generating $100,000+ in ARR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This model has proven capable of driving revenue growth, as GitLab\u2019s revenue grew 87% year-over-year (YoY) in fiscal 2021. However, Core Earnings<\/a>[1]<\/a> fell from -$125 million to -$213 million over the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: GitLab\u2019s Revenue & Core Earnings: 2019-2020<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"GitLab\u2019s<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GitLab\u2019s strategy is clearly focused on growing its top line and forgoing profitability for now. While GitLab\u2019s net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT<\/a>) margin improved slightly from -158% in fiscal 2020 to -141% in fiscal 2021, it remains highly negative. Additionally, the firm\u2019s return on invested capital (ROIC<\/a>) declined from -41% to -76% over the same time. GitLab\u2019s economic earnings<\/a>, the true measure of cash flows, declined from -$149 million in fiscal 2020 to -$229 million in fiscal 2021. Despite growing its top line, GitLab is destroying shareholder value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Small Share of a Large Market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

GitLab operates in the highly competitive infrastructure software market, which the firm notes in its S-1 is estimated to be worth $328 billion in 2021 and grow to $458 billion in 2024, or 12% compounded annually. Such a large TAM may entice investors looking for another tech growth story. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Gitlab recognizes that it cannot provide products to the entire TAM and, instead, aims to serve $43 billion of the industry in 2021 and $55 billion in 2024. At its current run rate revenue[2]<\/a> of $233 million, Gitlab has just 0.5% share of its \u201cserviceable\u201d market in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we narrow in on the Global DevOps segment of the infrastructure software market, the expected CAGR is higher, but the addressable market is much smaller. Global Industry Analysts projects<\/a> the Global DevOps market will grow by 20% compounded annually through 2026 to reach $18 billion. Regardless of the addressable market, Gitlab\u2019s IPO valuation implies it will take significant share and grow much faster than either of these market projections, as we\u2019ll show below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article – GitLab: Another Overpriced Tech Company<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally published on October 8, 2021.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Alex Sword, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a>, and <\/em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a> for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Only Core Earnings enable investors to overcome the flaws in legacy fundamental research, as proven by The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/a> Gitlab calculates run rate revenue as revenue for the three months ended July 31, 2021 multiplied by 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to download a PDF of this report.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

GitLab\u2019s model for growing revenue is based on the freemium model: gain users with a free version of its software and convert those users to paying members. 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