{"id":107001,"date":"2021-10-13T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-13T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=107001"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:27","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:27","slug":"a-quick-launch-then-right-back-to-earth-the-market-not-shatner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-quick-launch-then-right-back-to-earth-the-market-not-shatner\/","title":{"rendered":"A Quick Launch, Then Right Back to Earth &#8211; The Market, Not Shatner"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning, anyone who watches business news programming in the US was treated to breathless, wall-to-wall coverage of William Shatner venturing where <s>no man<\/s> a handful of rich men and their traveling companions had gone before.&nbsp; The coverage of Blue Origin\u2019s flight had me pondering two questions: 1. Did he book the trip using Priceline\u2019s name your own price feature, and 2. When will networks cease interrupting their programming for billionaires\u2019 non-public companies shooting large phallic symbols into sub-orbit?&nbsp; Yet before I could consider the answers to those imponderables, Captain Kirk was safely back on Earth.&nbsp;&nbsp; I then began to consider the similarity between the brief spaceflight and the recent activity in the US stock market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lately, pre-market futures and early cash trading has shown a tendency to blast off around the market\u2019s opening, only to gently parachute lower afterwards.&nbsp; Consider the following chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>December E-mini S&amp;P 500 Index Futures (ES), Intraday Graph from 9 to 9:45 EDT, 10 Trading Days<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"479\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-1100x479.png\" alt=\"December E-mini S&amp;P 500 Index Futures (ES), Intraday Graph from 9 to 9:45 EDT, 10 Trading Days\" class=\"wp-image-107011 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-1100x479.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-700x305.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-768x334.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45-1536x668.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/ES-9-9.45.png 1917w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/479;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see a pattern here.&nbsp; Either in the time directly leading up to the open, or immediately thereafter, there is a ramp up in ES futures. On most of the mornings, the ramp is short-lived.&nbsp; It is my opinion that these bumps are caused by reflexive buying \u2013 meaning that traders buy futures before the open because they have a history of rallying shortly thereafter. &nbsp;I\u2019m frankly not sure if it\u2019s strictly algorithmic (e.g. if it\u2019s 9AM, buy, then sell at 9:45), or if some traders attempt to lure less wary traders into the market so that the first group can sell to the second higher prices.&nbsp; I suspect it\u2019s some of each. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/suckers-rallies-and-reflexive-buying-a-tough-combination\/\">video posted yesterday<\/a>, I used the term \u201csuckers rally\u201d to refer to the latter technique, and that has been applicable over some of the past few sessions.&nbsp; We closed lower on 6 of the 9 trading days shown in the graph above, yet we saw the pattern hold even on those days (the 10<sup>th<\/sup> is today, and we\u2019re still open).&nbsp; There can certainly be valid reasons to buy stocks when the market opens, but doing so reflexively \u2013 simply because they\u2019re rising at that moment in time \u2013 is not proving to be one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While we\u2019re discussing intraday trading patterns, it seems like a good time to check in once again with the afternoon fade that we noticed about a month ago (<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-noon-swoon\/\">The Noon Swoon &#8211; Traders&#8217; Insight (tradersinsight.news)<\/a>)&nbsp; At the time we were seeing major indices fade during the afternoon on both up and down days.&nbsp; We attributed it to a lack of demand from large institutions who tend to work large orders throughout the day.&nbsp; Optimistic traders bought stocks in the morning, anticipating the usual follow-through buying from large institutions, only to sell their longs when those buy orders proved elusive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Successful traders aren\u2019t stupid.&nbsp; Just as they (or their algorithms) notice reliable patterns, they also notice when a pattern is no longer profitable.&nbsp; We see that in the chart below, which picks up after our piece was published:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) Intraday Graph from 11:30-16:00, 23 Trading Days<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"482\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-1100x482.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) Intraday Graph from 11:30-16:00, 23 Trading Days\" class=\"wp-image-107012 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-1100x482.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-700x307.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-300x132.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600-1536x674.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/SPX-1130-1600.png 1918w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/482;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is obvious that traders had recognized that the pattern had become less reliable.&nbsp; Patterns that rely upon someone else to take a trader out of a position usually do.&nbsp; If one is buying because they have a valid reason to believe that stocks will rise, then that may or may not work.&nbsp; If one is buying simply because they are hoping to get ahead of someone else\u2019s order, that is likely to fail.&nbsp; And eventually those who fail will stop doing it.&nbsp; (That said, the pattern of afternoon selling has become quite reliable over the past 4 days.&nbsp; But that is a very small sample.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The lesson here is simple.&nbsp; It can be quite profitable for traders to spot consistent patterns in the market, and by all means they should attempt to do so.&nbsp; But it is equally important to consider why that pattern might be working the way it does and what could cause it to stop working.&nbsp; All patterns come to an end eventually.&nbsp; Those that rely upon some sort of analysis tend to work better than those that are based simply on some other set of buyers or sellers to reliably appear simply because they have done so in the past.&nbsp; Those other traders recognize patterns too, and don\u2019t want to be victimized by them.&nbsp;&nbsp; A pattern that relies solely upon others to show up can shoot up and fade out as quickly as a billionaire\u2019s space flight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lately, pre-market futures and early cash trading has shown a tendency to blast off around the market\u2019s opening, only to gently parachute lower afterwards.  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