{"id":106262,"date":"2021-10-08T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-08T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=106262"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:18","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:18","slug":"allbirds-is-already-overvalued-at-expected-ipo-valuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/allbirds-is-already-overvalued-at-expected-ipo-valuation\/","title":{"rendered":"Allbirds Is Already Overvalued at Expected IPO Valuation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Allbirds (BIRD) is expected to go public in the coming weeks with an expected <\/a>valuation<\/a> of roughly $2 billion, which would earn the stock our Unattractive rating<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our view, Allbirds is not worth anywhere near $2 billion, a valuation that implies Allbird\u2019s revenue will grow over five times current levels, and that the company will become more profitable than all of its competitors, which is all highly unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We think the stock might be worth as little as $119 million, as it faces steep competition from established companies such as Nike (NKE), Adidas (ADDYY), and Tommy Hilfiger, among others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Allbirds is a brand known for its sustainability and eco-friendly operations, Allbirds is struggling to scale its business as revenue from new customers declined year-over-year in 2020 and the company hasn\u2019t ever been profitable. Allbirds losses will only get worse as it heavily invests in a costly brick-and-mortar strategy to complement its digital strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, ESG investors shouldn\u2019t overlook Allbirds\u2019 poor corporate governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our IPO research<\/a> aims to provide investors with more reliable fundamental research<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Allbirds Is Not Profitable<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Allbirds admits in its S-1<\/a>, \u201cWe have incurred significant net losses since inception, and anticipate that we will continue to incur losses for the foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even after sales benefited from demand for casual clothing and footwear, spurred on by the COVID-19 pandemic, Core Earnings<\/a>[1]<\/a> fell from -$9 million in 2019 to -$26 million in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Allbird\u2019s Revenue & Core Earnings: 2019-2020<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Allbird\u2019s<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top-Line Growth Is Decelerating<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Allbirds\u2019 digital sales growth, while above U.S. online shoe sales<\/a> growth, is slowing quickly. The firm\u2019s digital sales grew 42% YoY in 2019, but just 21% in 2020. The firm\u2019s total YoY revenue growth fell from 54% in 2019 to just 13% in 2020.  For reference, the more mature, casual footwear maker Crocs\u2019 (CROX) revenue also grew 13% YoY in 2020. More concerning for a firm seeking to take market share, Allbirds is having difficulty drawing new customers to its brand. Sales from new customers fell from $105 million in 2019 to $103 million in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out this week\u2019s Danger Zone interview<\/a> with Chuck Jaffe of <\/em>Money Life<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally published on September 23, 2021<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Alex Sword, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on <\/em>Twitter<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a>, and <\/em>StockTwits<\/em><\/a> for real-time alerts on all our research.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Only Core Earnings enable investors to overcome the flaws in legacy fundamental research, as proven by The Journal of Financial Economics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here to download a PDF of this report<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Allbirds (BIRD) is expected to go public in the coming weeks with an expected valuation of roughly $2 billion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":348,"featured_media":106263,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[10479,553],"contributors-categories":[13616],"class_list":["post-106262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-allbirds","tag-ipo","contributors-categories-new-constructs"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAllbirds Is Already Overvalued at Expected IPO Valuation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Allbirds (BIRD) is 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