{"id":105881,"date":"2021-10-06T12:24:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T16:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105881"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:30","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:30","slug":"like-a-yo-yo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/like-a-yo-yo\/","title":{"rendered":"Like A Yo-Yo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
I\u2019ve been trying to come up with the proper comparison for the recent movements in the stock markets. Yo-yo, bucking bronco, coiled spring, and several others have popped into my head. Rather than using tired cliches, let\u2019s let some pictures provide the description: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
S&P 500 Index (SPX), 1 Week Chart, 2 Minute Bars<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX), 1 Week Chart, 2 Minute Bars<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), 1 Week Chart, 2 Minute Bars<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The theme should be quite clear. Markets have been bouncing up and down after a recent drop. On last Friday and yesterday, we saw indices try to regain the ground they lost on the prior day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It didn\u2019t bother me that markets tried to bounce. That is to be expected after a sizeable drop, and SPX had fallen over 1% on Thursday and Monday. What bothered me is the way they bounced and the character of the moves. We opened higher, which is to be expected in an environment when \u201cbuy-the-dip\u201d has been a generally reliable strategy, but the relentless follow-through seemed much more like traders simply chasing moves than investors pursuing fresh values. Notice how we dropped as we approached the close on each of those rally days. I read that as traders not wanting to go home long after chasing higher prices all day. Unfortunately, Friday\u2019s rally appeared to be a sucker\u2019s rally, and it remains quite possible that yesterday\u2019s bounce could prove to be another. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SPX Implied Volatility (white), 10 Day (yellow) and 30 Day (orange) Historical Volatilities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is quite clear that we have entered a period of higher volatility, as evidenced by the graph above. We can certainly debate whether the volatility is transitory or persistent. It is my contention that the prospects for monetary and fiscal stimuli have become much more uncertain, and uncertainty begets volatility. That\u2019s what makes markets. It depends upon the likely pace of Fed tapering, whether this Friday\u2019s payroll numbers might boost employment sufficiently to push forward a potential interest rate hike, and whether Congress can get its act together regarding the debt ceiling, infrastructure spending and a budget reconciliation. If those all get resolved quickly and to the market\u2019s liking, volatility should ebb. If not, the market yo-yo could keep bouncing along.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
What is the proper comparison for the recent movements in the stock markets? Maybe a Yo-yo, bucking bronco, or a coiled spring fit the bill.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":105889,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-105881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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