{"id":105627,"date":"2021-10-05T09:50:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-05T13:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105627"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:10","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:10","slug":"spotting-trends-sector-opportunities-for-q4-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/spotting-trends-sector-opportunities-for-q4-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Spotting Trends: Sector Opportunities for Q4 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>REITs historically have generated real income and outperformed other assets in a high inflationary environment.<\/li><li>Strong demand for chips may persist in the coming years due to the increasing penetration of 5G smartphones, Internet of Things (IoT), and post-pandemic digital transformation that spurs demand for new generation data centers and cloud services.<\/li><li>Biotech\u2019s significant drawdown and underperformance this year have created a long-term growth opportunity at a reasonable price.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While the broad US equity market posted its sixth straight month of gains in Q3, the tug of war between value and growth has intensified, evidenced by record high volatility of return differences between value and growth indices.<sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp;Meanwhile, our economists believe that although inflation driven by supply chain disruptions and pent-up demand during the pandemic recovery might be peaking, rising rent and housing costs may keep inflation elevated next year.<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;While the market historically has tended to be bumpier in Q4, inflationary pressure and some secular industry trends may persist regardless of short-term market sentiment. Therefore, we see three industry opportunities for the final quarter of 2021.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-reits-pursue-income-and-total-return-in-an-inflationary-environment\"><strong>REITs: Pursue Income and Total Return in an Inflationary Environment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With interest rates near pre-pandemic lows and actual inflation as well as inflation expectations elevated, US REIT funds\u2019 ability to provide dividend income exceeding inflation has attracted investors this year. Because most leases are tied to inflation, income from leases and property values tend to increase when overall price levels rise. This supports REITs\u2019 dividend growth and helps investors to pursue real income during inflationary periods. In all but three of the past 20 years, REITs&#8217; dividend increases have outpaced inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index.<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;Although the dividend yield of the US REITs industry has declined to around 3% as some REIT share prices increase, this income level is still much higher than inflation expectations and yields of investment-grade bonds.<sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp;As the REITs sector continues to recover from the economic downturn, increases in lease payments likely will boost dividend distributions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From a total return perspective, REITs also provide investors a powerful tool for inflation hedging. Rolling 12-month average of CPI inflation rate has increased for six straight months in August and now sits at 3%, well above the historical median. While inflation has shown signs of peaking recently, it\u2019s likely to remain elevated in the coming months as the economic recovery continues. And when 12-month average CPI inflation has been in the top two quintiles, REITs have outperformed broad equities, US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and high yield bonds and been on par or slightly exceeded broad commodities, as shown in the chart below. This underscores REITs\u2019 total return advantage over other assets in a high inflationary environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"651\" height=\"606\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-12.png\" alt=\"Average 12-month REIT  Relative Return to Major Asset Classes over Different Inflation Periods\" class=\"wp-image-105629 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-12.png 651w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-12-300x279.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 651px) 100vw, 651px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 651px; aspect-ratio: 651\/606;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/etfs\/insights\/spotting-trends-sector-opportunities-for-q4-2021\">Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup>FactSet, as of 10\/1\/2021. Value and Growth are represented by the S&amp;P 500 Value and S&amp;P 500 Growth indices.<br><sup>2<\/sup>Weekly Economic Perspectives Quarterly Edition, September 27, 2021.<br><em><sup>3<\/sup><\/em>Nareit, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, as of December 2020.<br><sup>4<\/sup>Bloomberg Finance L.P., as of 9\/24\/2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Glossary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Corporate Bond Index<br><\/strong>The index covers the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Eurobonds and debt issues from countries designated as emerging markets (sovereign rating of Baa1\/BBB+\/BBB+ and below using the middle of Moody\u2019s, S&amp;P, and Fitch) are excluded, but Canadian and global bonds (SEC registered) of issuers in non-EMG countries are included. The index includes both corporate and non-corporate sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index<br><\/strong>The index measures the performance of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market. Federal Reserve holdings of US TIPS are not index eligible and are excluded from the face amount outstanding of each bond in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CPI Inflation Rate<br><\/strong>The change in the price index over a period of time<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Price-to-Sales (P\/S) Ratio<br><\/strong>A valuation ratio that compares a company\u2019s stock price to its revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)<br><\/strong>Companies that own or finance income-producing real estate across a range of property sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Semiconductor<br><\/strong>Materials which have a conductivity between conductors (generally metals) and nonconductors or insulators (such as most ceramics). Semiconductors can be pure elements, such as silicon or germanium, or compounds such as gallium arsenide or cadmium selenide. In a process called doping, small amounts of impurities are added to pure semiconductors causing large changes in the conductivity of the material.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>S&amp;P 500 Index<br><\/strong>The version of the popular benchmark for US large-cap equities that includes 500 companies from leading industries and captures about 80% coverage of available market capitalization in the US that reflects returns after reinvestment of dividends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>S&amp;P GSCI Total Return Index<br><\/strong>The S&amp;P GSCI Total Return Index in USD is widely recognized as the leading measure of general commodity price movements and inflation in the world economy. The index is calculated primarily on a world production-weighted basis comprised of the principal physical commodities futures contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on October 4, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/etfs\/insights\/spotting-trends-sector-opportunities-for-q4-2021\">Spotting Trends: Sector Opportunities for Q4 2021<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Important Risk Information<br><\/strong>This communication is not intended to be an investment recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA\u2019s express written consent.<br><br>The views expressed in this material are the views of SPDR ETFs and SSGA Funds Research Team through the period ended September 28, 2021 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions and do not necessarily represent the views of State Street Global Advisors or any of its affiliates. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investments in small-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, better known companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Targets are estimates based on certain assumptions and analysis made by SSGA. There is no guarantee that the estimates will be achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frequent trading of ETFs could significantly increase commissions and other costs such that they may offset any savings from low fees or costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Concentrated investments&nbsp;<\/strong>in a particular sector or industry tend to be more volatile than the overall market and increases risk that events negatively affecting such sectors or industries could reduce returns, potentially causing the value of the Fund\u2019s shares to decrease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Passively managed funds&nbsp;<\/strong>invest by sampling the Index, holding a range of securities that, in the aggregate, approximates the full Index in terms of key risk factors and other characteristics. This may cause the fund to experience tracking errors relative to performance of the Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Equity securities&nbsp;<\/strong>may fluctuate in value in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions. Funds investing in a single sector may be subject to more volatility than funds investing in a diverse group of sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS)&nbsp;<\/strong>investing may be subject to risks including, but not limited to, declines in the value of real estate, risks related to general economic conditions, changes in the value of the underlying property owned by the trust and defaults by borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technology companies<\/strong>, including cyber security companies, can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, limited product lines, and competition for financial resources, qualified personnel, new market entrants or impairment of patent and intellectual property rights that can adversely affect profit margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the market historically has tended to be bumpier in Q4, inflationary pressure and some secular industry trends may persist regardless of short-term market sentiment. Therefore, we see three industry opportunities for the final quarter of 2021. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":490,"featured_media":105629,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,5,15,18,6,8,9,1031,26,3],"tags":[221,519,10453,944,673],"contributors-categories":[13643],"class_list":{"0":"post-105627","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-commodities","9":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","10":"category-fixed-income","11":"category-macro","12":"category-north-america","13":"category-region","14":"category-securities","15":"category-south-america","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-biotech","19":"tag-demand","20":"tag-growth-opportunities","21":"tag-internet-of-things","22":"tag-reits","23":"contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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