{"id":105439,"date":"2021-10-04T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-04T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105439"},"modified":"2023-03-14T12:15:49","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T16:15:49","slug":"crosswinds-opec-and-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/crosswinds-opec-and-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Market Activity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

– Economic data in focus this week, Nonfarm Payroll due Friday. Check out our weekly Top Three Things to Watch this Week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– China on holiday, Golden Week, through Thursday<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Breaking News: OPEC+ ended meeting almost immediately and stuck with prearranged production plans. Crude Oil traded above $77, highest since November 2014.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Congress is on the hot seat. Two weeks to raise the debt ceiling or the U.S. faces default, weighs on sentiment. Potential progress on less infrastructure?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– China\u2019s Evergrande saga drags out, weighs on sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– U.S.-China trade remains lukewarm at best; weighs on sentiment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Supply chain concerns are mounting ahead of the holiday season, weighs on sentiment<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Tesla says what supply chain issues. Stock up 2.5% premarket on strong deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Facebook in the spotlight; potentially could weigh on sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– U.S. Dollar Index is down, helping to buoy risk-assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Factory Orders due at 9:00 am CT<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mini S&P (December) \/ NQ (December)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 4343.75, up 46.00<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 14,761.75, up 79.25<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Bullish wave Friday played out; new quarter, new month, fresh start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Rally through last night stalled at major three-star resistance in both S&P and NQ; 4366-4373 and 14,807-14,829.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Pivots align with our momentum indicators create a point of balance on the session; bulls must defend here through first hour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Shelf in S&P built at 4308.50-4312.75 ahead of Friday afternoon; break below here would encourage added selling<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Rare major four-star support stands at 4275.25-4293.75; close below here bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 4340-4343.75**, 4366-4373***, 4399.75***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude Oil (November)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 75.88, up 0.85<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– We remain Bullish in Bias; strong close today post-OPEC+ could be a driving factor to $80 quickly<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Very healthy technical setup; bullish pennant on daily and inverse head and shoulders seen intraday through last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– High of the year is at 76.98.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Bullish\/Neutral<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 76.98***, 80.00***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold (December) \/ Silver (December)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 1758.4, up 1.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Silver, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 22.536, up 0.489<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Early weakness in precious metals is rebounding on U.S. Dollar weakness<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– We remain Bullish in Bias but must see continued construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– China Golden Week can bring a softness to precious metals, though may prove to be a buy opportunity for strength in the week following. China back on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Low of the morning so far held first key support in Gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– More critically, low in Silver held major three-star support in Silver at 22.02-22.35; close below negative and encourages selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Positive settlements needed today to power through trend line resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bias: Bullish\/Neutral<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 1768-1770**, 1777**, 1782.8-1784***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pivot: 1756-1758 Support: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on October 4, 2021 – Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish \u2013 Outright bullish<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish\/Neutral \u2013 Bullish the market but there may be technical\/fundamental headwinds around the corner<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neutral\/Bullish \u2013 relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neutral<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neutral\/Bearish \u2013 relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish\/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical\/fundamental headwinds around the corner<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish \u2013 Outright bearish<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,17,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[1056,3446,255,678],"contributors-categories":[13588],"class_list":{"0":"post-105439","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-asia","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-futures","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-crude-oil","18":"tag-e-mini-sp","19":"tag-gold","20":"tag-silver","21":"contributors-categories-blue-line-futures"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCrosswinds, OPEC+, and China | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"OPEC+ meeting in focus. 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