{"id":105393,"date":"2021-10-04T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105393"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:08","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:08","slug":"weekly-market-recap-oct-4-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-oct-4-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Oct. 4, 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Initial jobless claims at 362,000<\/li><li>Consumer confidence down 5.9pts m\/m<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Factory orders<\/li><li>Unemployment rate<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The forward USD overnight index swap (OIS) curve is a commonly used proxy for the market\u2019s expectation of where the federal funds rate is headed. As shown in the chart, the OIS curve exhibited little movement following the Fed meeting on September 22; however, a few days later, on September 28, the OIS curve steepened more meaningfully. That same day, the 10Y Treasury yield closed at 1.54% \u2013 its highest level since June. This steepening is the product of a confluence of recent developments. At its core, the move may be a delayed reaction to the Fed meeting last week, which provided greater clarity on the Fed\u2019s expected plans to taper bond purchases and eventually increase short-term rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We saw inflation breakevens (i.e. the gap between nominal yields and TIPS yield) also move up a bit, signaling that investors may be expecting some stickier inflation. Second, it\u2019s not just the Fed, but other central banks are also on the move. Norway\u2019s Norges Bank became the first G10 central bank to hike, joining a number of EM central banks already hiking (i.e. Brazil, Mexico, Russia). Another development that drove up yields was an easing of worries surrounding Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande. While the issue is not yet resolved, fears over a \u201cLehman moment\u201d have subsided. Together, these factors may have contributed to the rise in yields. On balance, we expect long-term interest rates to rise further, reflecting a reacceleration in global growth, which should present an opportunity for cyclicals to outperform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"865\" height=\"367\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-6.png\" alt=\"market expectations saw a delayed reaction to the Fed's hawkish tilt\" class=\"wp-image-105394 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-6.png 865w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-6-700x297.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-6-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-6-768x326.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 865px) 100vw, 865px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 865px; aspect-ratio: 865\/367;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"390\" height=\"38\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-7.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105395 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-7.png 390w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/image-7-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 390px) 100vw, 390px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 390px; aspect-ratio: 390\/38;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/blob-gim\/1383452890099\/83456\/weekly_market_recap.pdf\">Click here to access the material on J.P. Morgan\u2019s website.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the<br>program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., October 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of October 4, 2021 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forward USD overnight index swap (OIS) curve is a commonly used proxy for the market\u2019s expectation of where the federal funds rate is 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