{"id":105260,"date":"2021-10-01T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-01T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105260"},"modified":"2023-01-19T17:37:58","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T22:37:58","slug":"sorry-sight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/sorry-sight\/","title":{"rendered":"Sorry Sight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-going-on\">What&#8217;s going on?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, no one saw this coming: data out on Thursday&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/uk-economy-grew-more-strongly-than-thought-q2-2021-09-30\/\">showed<\/a>&nbsp;that the UK economy grew faster than expected last quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-does-this-mean\">What does this mean?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looks like economists completely missed the mark on just about all the outlooks they made back in August. UK businesses, the government, and the public have all been spending more than expected since April, which means the retail, construction, and services industries have all grown more than expected too. And&nbsp;<em>that&nbsp;<\/em>means the 4.8% economic growth economists were expecting missed the mark too: the economy actually grew 5.5% compared to the same time last year. That\u2019s left it \u201cjust\u201d 3.3% smaller than it was before the pandemic \u2013 on a par with Germany\u2019s 3.3% and France\u2019s 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-should-i-care\">Why should I care?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>For markets:&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>Rate hikes ahoy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of England (BoE) might be feeling vindicated: it\u2019s been talking about raising interest rates before the end of the year, and a stronger-than-expected economy will make it more confident about doing just that. And that rate hike might just be the first of many, with traders expecting three more next year. The BoE will have to be careful, mind you: there are signs supply chain-gate has been dragging on the economy, and raising rates too quickly \u2013 which could deter spending \u2013 might knock the hard-won recovery off balance.<br><br><strong><em>The bigger picture:&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><em>Houses are expensive.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK housing market wanted in too: house prices were up&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-58746951\">10%<\/a>&nbsp;in September compared to the same time last year \u2013 the fifth month in a row of double-digit annual growth. That\u2019s been driven in large part by pandemic-inspired tax incentives, though the market could certainly slow down when the government gets rid of them later this month. Of course, it\u2019s not likely to cause too much of a drop-off: there\u2019s still a shortage of houses and strong demand from homebuyers, and borrowing costs are still at a record low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on September 30, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.finimize.com\/wp\/news\/sorry-sight\/\">Sorry Sight<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, no one saw this coming: data out on Thursday showed that the UK economy grew faster than expected last 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