{"id":105235,"date":"2021-10-01T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-01T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105235"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:48:05","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:48:05","slug":"gold-maintained-its-haven-status-during-the-evergrande-selloff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/gold-maintained-its-haven-status-during-the-evergrande-selloff\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Maintained Its Haven Status During the Evergrande Selloff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s the biggest company you\u2019ve never heard of\u2014until last week, that is. Evergrande Group, the \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d Chinese property developer, rattled markets last Monday when it missed interest payments to at least two of its lenders. This gave more than a few investors flashbacks to Lehman Brothers\u2019 demise in 2008, which helped trigger the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The selloff spread to U.S. markets, and I was pleased to see that gold maintained its haven status. The yellow metal ended the day slightly up more than half a percent, passing an important \u201cstress test\u201d of its investment case in the age of Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"363\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_1.png\" alt=\"gold safe haven\" class=\"wp-image-105236 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_1.png 600w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_1-300x182.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 600px; aspect-ratio: 600\/363;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The world\u2019s biggest cryptocurrency, believed by many to be \u201cdigital gold,\u201d plunged 8.5% on Monday as investors dumped riskier assets. Indeed, Bitcoin is more than four times as volatile as gold. Those of you who attended HIVE Blockchain Technologies\u2019 earnings webcast on Friday know that gold bullion has a 10-day standard deviation of only \u00b13, while Bitcoin\u2019s is \u00b114. Ether\u2019s is even higher at \u00b119 over 10 trading days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin dipped further last week after the Chinese government banned all crypto transactions and crypto mining, prompting many to speculate that the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBOC) is preparing to issue its own CBDC, or&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/investor-library\/frank-talk-a-ceo-blog-by-frank-holmes\/gold-off-to-a-slow-start-as-central-banks-pivot-toward-digital-currencies\">central bank digital currency.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe this crackdown is yet more proof that people need to own some Bitcoin, which is currently on sale as we await news on whether the Xi Jinping Administration will step in to prevent another pandemic, this one of the financial kind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Speaking of HIVE\u2026 The company reported record annual revenue of $66.7 million for the period ended March 31, 2021, and record earnings of $43.5 million. A big thank you to shareholders for their patience and for keeping the faith!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/hiveblockchain.com\/news\/hive-achieves-record-annual-revenue-ended-march-31-2021-of-667-million-and-earnings-of-435-million\/\"><strong>Read the press release<\/strong><\/a><strong><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-and-bitcoin-looking-more-attractive-as-contagion-fears-mount\">Gold and Bitcoin Looking More Attractive as Contagion Fears Mount<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For the record, I find it hard to believe that President Xi will do nothing. Evergrande may not be a household name in the U.S., but it\u2019s China\u2019s second largest real estate company, with nearly 800 projects in 234 cities. It also offers financial products, invests in electric vehicles and is even building a theme park on an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.l-a-v-a.net\/projects\/hainan-ocean-flower-resort\/?locale=en_US\">artificial island off the province of Hainan.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This growth didn\u2019t happen organically, though, and today Evergrande is believed to be the world\u2019s most indebted developer, saddled with more than $300 billion in total liabilities. In November 2020, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/c1144ffe-30f9-41d3-b033-bb82eca258b4\">Financial Times<\/a>&nbsp;wrote that the Fortune 500 company \u201chas enough land to house the entire population of Portugal and more debt than New Zealand.\u201d At the end of last year, it had roughly twice as much debt as equity, putting it in a class well above other Chinese real estate firms.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"314\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_2.png\" alt=\"evergande sell off\" class=\"wp-image-105237 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_2.png 600w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_2-300x157.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 600px; aspect-ratio: 600\/314;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As \u201ceye-popping\u201d as Evergrande\u2019s debt load is, it\u2019s a \u201csmall drop in the ocean of debt that the world is swimming in,\u201d CLSA\u2019s Damian Kestel wrote last week in a note to clients. Total global debt in the second quarter stood at just under $300 trillion, a new record, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IFF) most recent Global Debt Monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"395\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_3.png\" alt=\"global debt\" class=\"wp-image-105238 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_3.png 600w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/10\/us_global_10-1-21_3-300x198.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 600px; aspect-ratio: 600\/395;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe bigger they come, the harder they fall,\u201d as the saying goes. If Evergrande were allowed to fail without any governmental intervention, it could spark a credit crisis that would make 2007-2008 look tame by comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against this backdrop, gold and Bitcoin look very attractive to me as stores of value, and both happen to be on sale right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No, They\u2019re Not Mutually Exclusive<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As someone who\u2019s involved in both gold and Bitcoin investing, I clearly don\u2019t subscribe to the idea that one is better than the other in all cases. I agree with Bloomberg\u2019s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who said in a note last week that gold and Bitcoin \u201ccan complement each other in a portfolio.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the two assets&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/investor-library\/frank-talk-a-ceo-blog-by-frank-holmes\/decrypting-bitcoin-and-gold\">share obvious similarities and differences<\/a>\u2014one is thousands of years old while the other is brand spanking new; one is easily portable while the other isn\u2019t\u2014I think there are three important distinctions that investors need to be aware of: volatility, taxation and correlation to the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Volatility I\u2019ve already talked about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at taxation, Bitcoin is taxed the same as a stock, with a long-term capital gains rate of between 0% and 20%, depending on income level. Gold, on the other hand, is taxed as a collectible, meaning it carries a higher fixed rate of 28%, regardless of income. Point: Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then there\u2019s correlation. Gold has no correlation to the S&amp;P 500, making it suitable for someone who wants to hedge against market risk. As a risk-on asset, Bitcoin has a slight correlation to the S&amp;P. Point: Gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When you add all of this up, I believe it shows that gold has a small advantage over Bitcoin as a diversifier and store of value\u2014at least for now. This could change as the Bitcoin network matures and its price swings stabilize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/investor-library\/frank-talk-a-ceo-blog-by-frank-holmes\/gold-maintained-its-haven-status-during-the-evergrande-selloff\/#.YVb5epopCUk\">lick here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on September 27, 2021 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/investor-library\/frank-talk-a-ceo-blog-by-frank-holmes\/gold-maintained-its-haven-status-during-the-evergrande-selloff\/#.YVb5epopCUk\">Gold Maintained Its Haven Status During the Evergrande Selloff<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/our-funds\/fund-performance\/daily-nav\/\">fund performance<\/a><strong>&nbsp;page.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The S&amp;P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Index is designed to measure all publicly traded real estate investment trusts in the Dow Jones U.S. stock universe classified as equity REITs. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners&#8217; currencies. The MSCI China Real Estate Index is designed to capture the large and mid-cap segments of the China equity markets. The NYSE Arca Global Airline Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized and liquid international airline companies. Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE. Effective 8\/31\/2018, Frank Holmes serves as the interim executive chairman of HIVE. A standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The selloff spread to U.S. markets, and I was pleased to see that gold maintained its haven status. The yellow metal ended the day slightly up more than half a percent, passing an important \u201cstress test\u201d of its investment case in the age of Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":105236,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,5,6,8,9,1031,22,26,3],"tags":[10366,255,2258],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":{"0":"post-105235","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-commodities","9":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-south-america","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-evergrande","18":"tag-gold","19":"tag-safe-haven","20":"contributors-categories-us-global-investors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold Maintained Its Haven Status During the Evergrande Selloff<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The selloff spread to U.S. markets, and I was pleased to see that gold maintained its haven status. 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