{"id":105192,"date":"2021-10-01T00:42:01","date_gmt":"2021-10-01T04:42:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=105192"},"modified":"2023-02-24T10:11:28","modified_gmt":"2023-02-24T15:11:28","slug":"stocks-drop-on-september-30-the-fun-has-merely-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stocks-drop-on-september-30-the-fun-has-merely-begun\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Drop On September 30 \u2013 The Fun Has Merely Begun"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stocks \u2013 AMZN, AAPL, DIS, FDX<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macro \u2013 SPY, QQQ, VIX<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 (SPY)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s a pretty bad day for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling by about 1.2% to finish the month down 4.7%. The market doesn\u2019t look all that healthy, but then again, it hasn\u2019t looked healthy for weeks, maybe months. It seems like at this point; we are in the middle of wave three down. We will need to confirm this by falling below 4,300 tomorrow. If so, I see a move to 4,240 at a minimum and could be as steep as 4,115.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s the problem, at 4,115, if that does come into play, the S&P 500 would be trading for a stunning 19.3 times its next-twelve-months earnings estimates. A still very pricey multiple. If I had my way, I would like to see the index settle at and trade for something like 17 times NTM estimates, or 3,600. I think 17 is a good PE for the market, given where growth rates are going and the low rate world. We have to hope that earnings estimates hold up and don\u2019t start coming down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

VIX (VIX)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite today\u2019s drop, the VIX hardly increased, rising just 2.5% to 23.1. Indeed, not a sign of any fear being built into the market yet. It could be an indication that serious selling hasn\u2019t even begun. If you start to get a VIX that can go up in an orderly manner instead of those significant 20% one-day jumps, you could see a market that moves much lower over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"VIX\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq (QQQ)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Qs have been consolidating and forming a bear flag, which was present in the S&P 500 futures this morning before it broke. The pattern would suggest the Qs fall back to $346.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Apple (AAPL)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The chart for Apple looks pretty weak, and it should break support at $141 and start its drop to the low $130s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Apple\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Amazon (AMZN)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Amazon looks pretty bad too, with a break of support at $3,300 and a negative sloping RSI, the stock\u2019s next stop will probably be $3200.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Amazon\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disney (DIS) <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Disney is very close to falling below support at $168, and with a giant gap to fill at $154, it is not looking good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Disney\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

FedEx (FDX) <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The disaster, also known as FedEx, keeps on dropping with no end in sight. It could still have a considerable distance to fall, too, with $180 the most suitable spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"FedEx\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on September 30, 2021 \u2013 Stocks Drop On September 30 \u2013 The Fun Has Merely Begun<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s a pretty bad day for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling by about 1.2% to finish the month down 4.7%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":105202,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[155,149,1151,1766,2782,262,317],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":{"0":"post-105192","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-aapl","15":"tag-amzn","16":"tag-dis","17":"tag-fdx","18":"tag-qqq","19":"tag-spy","20":"tag-vix","21":"contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStocks Drop On September 30 \u2013 The Fun Has Merely Begun<\/title>\n<meta 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