{"id":100127,"date":"2021-08-20T11:56:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-20T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=100127"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:41","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:41","slug":"why-options-expirations-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/why-options-expirations-matter\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Options Expirations Matter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What a difference a week makes.&nbsp; Last week, markets plodded higher for 5 consecutive days.&nbsp; That type of movement is fine for buy and hold investors but excruciating for traders.&nbsp; Even decidedly negative data on PPI and consumer sentiment were unable to deter the S&amp;P 500 Index\u2019 (SPX) trend.&nbsp; The seeming lack of interest in potentially detrimental news caused me to label this a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bull-market-or-nihilist-market\/\">Nihilist market<\/a> earlier this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week we had much more back and forth trading.&nbsp; Yet I would argue that until the release of the FOMC minutes we had vastly different reactions to similar types of news.&nbsp; A shortfall in retail sales led to a sharply negative reaction on Tuesday before markets recouped about half their losses.&nbsp; I believe that it was less about a change in psychology than a change in expiration week dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we approach expiration, the effects of volatility get magnified.&nbsp; When a trader holds expiring options, even small moves in underlying stocks can cause big moves in his overall exposure.&nbsp; Depending on the size of the move and who is on the long side vs. the short side (for options for every long there is a short), the moves can get exaggerated or dampened.&nbsp; This is because of the way that changes in delta and gamma in near-the-money options accelerate as we approach expiry.&nbsp; In the ensuing paragraphs I hope to explain that effect, hopefully in layman\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s get an important mathematical concept out of the way first.&nbsp; The quick wonky explanation of delta and gamma is that delta is the first derivative of an option price with respect to stock price, while gamma is its second derivative.&nbsp; The longer answer is much more useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An option\u2019s delta is the amount that an option will move for each dollar change in the underlying share price.&nbsp; For example, a trader who is long a .50 delta option would need to sell 50 shares of stock for each contract they own. &nbsp;(Remember that standard North American options contracts represent 100 shares of stock.) &nbsp;Although it is not strictly a measure of probability, one can think of it as a measure of the likelihood that a trader will find their option in the money at expiration.&nbsp; An in-the-money option has a higher delta than an out-of-the-money option because it is more likely to be in the money at expiration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The problem for traders is that deltas are always subject to change over time.&nbsp; As stocks move toward or away from strikes, the delta changes.&nbsp; That is gamma, which is the change in an option\u2019s <em>delta<\/em> for each $ change in the underlying share price.&nbsp; Because many traders like to stay hedged, they must constantly trade stock against changing delta exposures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What makes expiration so treacherous is that gamma is magnified as we approach expiration.&nbsp; Let\u2019s say we are long $20 calls on a stock that goes from $19.95 to $20.05.&nbsp; If we have several days to go until expiration, the delta may go from 0.48 to 0.52, because the stock has plenty of time to move around before the options expire.&nbsp; Even active hedgers may not find that move sufficient to concern them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now let\u2019s say we are right around the close on expiration Friday.&nbsp; If a stock is at $19.95, the calls are out of the money with a delta approaching zero.&nbsp; If we are just before expiration, they are unlikely to be exercised.&nbsp; If the stock suddenly jumps to $20.05, the delta flips to nearly 1.00 because holders would now be quite likely to exercise the calls to get long stock.&nbsp; That forces a lot of hedging.&nbsp; The long call holders went from unlikely to own stock after expiration exposure to highly likely.&nbsp; They may be incentivized to sell shares to lock in a profit.&nbsp; On the flip side, those who are short the calls found themselves much more likely to be short stock.&nbsp; They may want to cut their losses by buying stock.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We just offered two highly different cases involving the same stock.&nbsp; In the former case, the delta changed only marginally.&nbsp; We can say that the gamma was low because a move caused only a small change.&nbsp; In the latter case, the gamma was almost infinite, because the same move caused a complete flip in delta from 0 to 1.0 almost immediately.&nbsp; As with most calculations involving derivatives, the changes in delta and gamma are not linear.&nbsp; The rise in gamma accelerates as we approach expiration, meaning that hedging activity is likely to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As noted earlier, much depends upon who owns the expiring options. &nbsp;Bear in mind that whoever is long gamma is incentivized to buy low and sell high, while those who are short gamma find themselves needing to do the opposite.&nbsp; Trust me, it is much more uncomfortable to be short gamma in a volatile market as we approach expiry.&nbsp; The market becomes a contest of wills.&nbsp; If the hedgers are long and in control, they tend to dampen wild moves.&nbsp; If not, the moves become exacerbated.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember that each of the last few expirations saw major moves on major news.&nbsp; We had a June swoon in response to an FOMC meeting and Powell press conference that occurred just ahead of a quarterly expiration.&nbsp;&nbsp; In July, we had an adverse reaction to negative economic numbers like PPI and Michigan sentiment.&nbsp; (Yes, the same numbers that were ignored last week).&nbsp; Now we are in trying to digest a potential change to Fed stimulus.&nbsp; The minutes of the June FOMC meeting that were released earlier this week have morphed the discussion from whether the Fed will taper to when they will begin doing so.&nbsp; We would be remiss to think that volatility couldn\u2019t result from that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And bear in mind that a rally like we are seeing this morning is still a form of volatility.&nbsp; It\u2019s simply socially acceptable volatility.&nbsp; Volatility measurements consider up and down movements more or less equally, but people react quite differently.&nbsp; A \u00bd% rise is taken largely in stride, while a down move of that magnitude has people wondering why.&nbsp; Investors have become somewhat inured to quiescent markets over the past year.&nbsp; Expiration weeks provide an important reminder that complacency is not always a winning strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors have become somewhat inured to quiescent markets over the past year.  Expiration weeks provide an important reminder that complacency is not always a winning strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":100135,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[7581,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-100127","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-expirations","16":"tag-volatility","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the 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