{"id":253173,"date":"2026-08-11T10:33:26","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T14:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?post_type=glossary-terms&#038;p=253173"},"modified":"2026-08-11T10:33:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T14:33:28","slug":"exceedance-probability","status":"publish","type":"glossary-terms","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/exceedance-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Exceedance Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-50\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/ndcdyn.interactivebrokers.com\/mkt\/?src=glossGenAcc&amp;url=%2FUniversal%2FApplication\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Open Account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exceedance probability is the chance that a variable will be at or above a stated threshold within a defined period. It is the complement of the cumulative distribution function, so a 20% exceedance probability for a loss level means an 80% chance that losses stay below it. The concept appears in catastrophe modeling as the exceedance probability curve used to price reinsurance layers, and in event contract markets as the direct interpretation of a price on a threshold contract.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Exceedance probability is the chance that a variable will be at or above a stated threshold within a defined period. It is the complement of the cumulative distribution function, so a 20% exceedance probability for a loss level means an 80% chance that losses stay below it. The concept appears in catastrophe modeling as the exceedance probability curve used to price reinsurance layers, and in event contract markets as the direct interpretation of a price on a threshold contract.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"traders-glossary":[13254,13251],"class_list":["post-253173","glossary-terms","type-glossary-terms","status-publish","traders-glossary-trading-terms-e","traders-glossary-trading-alphabet"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Archives Term | IBKR Glossary | IBKR Campus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Exceedance probability is the chance that a variable will be at or above a stated threshold within a defined 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