{"id":253164,"date":"2026-08-11T10:25:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T14:25:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?post_type=glossary-terms&p=253164"},"modified":"2026-08-17T16:35:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T20:35:31","slug":"forecast-contract","status":"publish","type":"glossary-terms","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
Open Accoun<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not. Because the payout is binary and fixed, the price of a YES contract can be read directly as the market’s collective estimate of the probability of the event, so a contract trading at $0.30 corresponds to roughly a 30% chance. ForecastEx lists Forecast Contracts on outcomes such as daily high and low temperatures at specific weather stations, Atlantic hurricane counts, major hurricane landfall by region, severe storm counts, crop yields, and global temperature thresholds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Forecast Contracts Can Help Mitigate Florida\u2019s Insurance Crisis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast Contracts as a Tool to Manage Non-Catastrophic Weather Risk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Forecast Contracts as Efficient Reinsurance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Forecast Contracts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fair Value Weather & Climate \u2014 Monday, August 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bundling \u201cNO\u201d Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not. Because the payout is binary and fixed, the price of a YES contract can be read directly as the market’s collective estimate of the probability of the event, so a contract trading at $0.30 corresponds to roughly a 30% chance. ForecastEx lists Forecast Contracts on outcomes such as daily high and low temperatures at specific weather stations, Atlantic hurricane counts, major hurricane landfall by region, severe storm counts, crop yields, and global temperature thresholds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"traders-glossary":[13270,13251],"class_list":["post-253164","glossary-terms","type-glossary-terms","status-publish","traders-glossary-trading-terms-f","traders-glossary-trading-alphabet"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArchives Term | IBKR Glossary | IBKR Campus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms\/253164\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast Contract | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-17T20:35:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t \"@graph\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/forecast-contract\\\/\",\n\t \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/forecast-contract\\\/\",\n\t \"name\": \"Forecast Contract | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t \"isPartOf\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t },\n\t \"datePublished\": \"2026-08-11T14:25:22+00:00\",\n\t \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-17T20:35:31+00:00\",\n\t \"description\": \"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.\",\n\t \"breadcrumb\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/forecast-contract\\\/#breadcrumb\"\n\t },\n\t \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t \"potentialAction\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t \"target\": [\n\t \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/forecast-contract\\\/\"\n\t ]\n\t }\n\t ]\n\t },\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"BreadcrumbList\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/forecast-contract\\\/#breadcrumb\",\n\t \"itemListElement\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"ListItem\",\n\t \"position\": 1,\n\t \"name\": \"Glossary\",\n\t \"item\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/glossary-terms\\\/\"\n\t },\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"ListItem\",\n\t \"position\": 2,\n\t \"name\": \"Forecast Contract\"\n\t }\n\t ]\n\t },\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t \"publisher\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t },\n\t \"potentialAction\": [\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t \"target\": {\n\t \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t },\n\t \"query-input\": {\n\t \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t }\n\t }\n\t ],\n\t \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t },\n\t {\n\t \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t \"logo\": {\n\t \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t \"width\": 669,\n\t \"height\": 669,\n\t \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t },\n\t \"image\": {\n\t \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t },\n\t \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t }\n\t ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Archives Term | IBKR Glossary | IBKR Campus","description":"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms\/253164\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecast Contract | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_modified_time":"2026-08-17T20:35:31+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/","name":"Forecast Contract | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-08-11T14:25:22+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-17T20:35:31+00:00","description":"A Forecast Contract is an exchange-traded event contract that settles at $1.00 if a defined outcome occurs and $0.00 if it does not.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/forecast-contract\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Glossary","item":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/glossary-terms\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Forecast Contract"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms\/253164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/glossary-terms"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms\/253164\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":253907,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/glossary-terms\/253164\/revisions\/253907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=253164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"traders-glossary","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/traders-glossary?post=253164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}