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Posted January 2, 2026 at 12:35 pm
Forecasters kept busy in the days surrounding the New Year’s Holiday as a total north of 4.41 million contracts were traded from Dec. 31 through today, so far. The daily high temperatures across US cities continued to drive an elevated share of volumes, but broader themes achieved strong engagement as well. While instruments tied to the performance of bitcoin and the S&P 500 are typically popular on ForecastEx, others making the list of the last three sessions included the January Fed decision, the Japanese Yen/US Dollar currency pair, the Singapore Overnight Rate Average and whether the Supreme Court will uphold President Trump’s tariffs.
Below are two “No” contract opportunities that expire Tuesday and I believe are attractive as it relates to the eurozone’s CPI and domestic gasoline prices.
Tuesday’s economic data expirations include the euro zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US gasoline prices. Our participants are currently expecting the December CPI to fail to exceed 2.2% with an elevated 70% degree of confidence following November’s 2.1% result. However, the 70% is undervalued in my opinion because I don’t see a path for costs to accelerate to 2.3% and I think it should be closer to 95%. Furthermore, the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 26 forecasters is also in agreement, since the expectations range from 1.8% to 2.1% against the backdrop of a 2% median.
Conversely, traders believe there’s an 85% chance that US gas prices will exceed $2.80 for the week ending Jan. 5. But there’s good value at the “No” here at $0.13, because gasoline and crude oil futures, strong leading indicators for this result, have been weak in recent days and that should indicate a lower reading than the previous week’s $2.811. Indeed, my estimate is $2.78.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 2, 2026.
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